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دسته بندی:
سیستم های خبره - expert systems
سال انتشار:
2019
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
A methodology for enhancing the reliability of expert system applications in probabilistic risk assessment
ترجمه فارسی عنوان مقاله:
روشی برای افزایش قابلیت اطمینان برنامه های کاربردی سیستم خبره در ارزیابی ریسک احتمالی
منبع:
Sciencedirect - Elsevier - Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 58 (2019) 51-59: doi:10:1016/j:jlp:2019:02:001
نویسنده:
Mohammad Yazdia,∗, Pendar Hafezib, Rouzbeh Abbassic
چکیده انگلیسی:
In highly complex industries, capturing and employing expert systems is significantly important to an organizations
success considering the advantages of knowledge-based systems. The two most important issues within
the expert system applications in risk and reliability analysis are the acquisition of domain experts professional
knowledge and the reasoning and representation of the knowledge that might be expressed. The first issue can be
correctly handled by employing a heterogeneous group of experts during the expert knowledge acquisition
processes. The members of an expert panel regularly represent different experiences and knowledge.
Subsequently, this diversity produces various sorts of information which may be known or unknown, accurate or
inaccurate, and complete or incomplete based on its cross-functional and multidisciplinary nature. The second
issue, as a promising tool for knowledge reasoning, still suffers from lack of deficiencies such as weight and
certainty factor, and are insufficient to accurately represent complex rule-based expert systems. The outputs in
current expert system applications in probabilistic risk assessment could not accurately represent the increasingly
complex knowledge-based systems. The reason is the lack of certainty and self-assurance of experts when
they are expressing their opinions. In this paper, a novel methodology is presented based on the concept of Znumbers
to overcome this issue. A case study in a high-tech process industry is provided in detail to demonstrate
the application and feasibility of the proposed methodology.
Keywords: Confidence level | Z-numbers | Fault tree analysis | Spherical hydrocarbon storage tank
قیمت: رایگان
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