عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
The Rapidly Changing US Illicit Drug Market and the Potential for an Improved Early Warning System: Evidence from Ohio Drug Crime Labs
ترجمه فارسی عنوان مقاله:
بازار مواد مخدر غیرقانونی ایالت متحده در حال تغییر سریع و پتانسیل برای بهبود سیستم هشدار زودهنگام: مدارکی از آزمایشگاه های جرایم دارویی اوهایو
Sciencedirect - Elsevier - Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 208 (2020) 107779. doi:10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2019.107779
Daniel Rosenbluma,*, Jay Unickb, Daniel Ciccaronec
Background: The US has seen a rapid increase in synthetic opioid-related overdose deaths. We investigate Ohio, a
state with one of the highest overdose death rates in 2017 and substantial numbers of deaths related to fentanyl,
carfentanil, and other fentanyl analogs, to provide detailed evidence about the relationship between changes in
the illicit drug market and overdose deaths.
Methods: We investigate the illicit drug market using Ohios Bureau of Criminal Investigations (BCI) crime lab
data from 2009 to 2018 that shows the content of drugs seized by law enforcement. We use Poisson regression
analysis to estimate the relationship between monthly crime lab data and monthly unintentional drug overdose
death data at the county level.
Results: During this time period there has been a rapid change in the composition of drugs analyzed by the BCI
labs, with a rapid fall in heroin observations, simultaneous rise in synthetic opioids, and an increase in the
number of different fentanyl analogs. We find that the increased presence of fentanyl, carfentanil, and other
fentanyl analogs have a strong correlation with an increase in overdose deaths. The types of opioids most associated
with deaths varies by the population size of the county.
Conclusions: Crime lab data has the potential to be used as an early warning system to alert persons who inject
drugs, harm reduction services, first responders, and law enforcement about changes in the illicit opioid risk
Keywords: Fentanyl | Carfentanil | Fentanyl Analogs | Overdose Deaths | Ohio