سال انتشار:
2020
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
Never underestimate your opponent: Hindsight bias causes overplacement and overentry into competition
ترجمه فارسی عنوان مقاله:
هرگز حریف خود را دست کم نگیرید: تعصب عقاید باعث اضافه جای و اضافه کار در رقابت می شود
منبع:
Sciencedirect - Elsevier - Games and Economic Behavior, 124 (2020) 588–603: 10:1016/j:geb:2020:10:001
نویسنده:
David Danz
چکیده انگلیسی:
This study investigates a source of comparative overconfidence, or over placement, which
occurs when people overestimate themselves relative to others. We present a simple
application of information projection (Madarász, 2012) to show that hindsight bias can
lead to over placement and excessive willingness to compete. We run an experiment in
which subjects choose between a competitive tournament and piece-rate compensation
after observing some of their competitors’ past performance. We exogenously manipulate
whether subjects have ex post information about their competitors’ past tasks (hindsight)
or not (no hindsight). We find that hindsight bias generates over placement and increases
subjects’ valuation of tournament participation by 19%. In line with theory, the additional
tournament entry in the hindsight setting is driven by low-performing participants who
should not have entered the tournament.
Keywords: Overconfidence | Tournament | Hindsight bias | Curse of knowledge | Information projection | Beliefs | Entrepreneurship
قیمت: رایگان
توضیحات اضافی:
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