سال انتشار:

2020

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عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:

Never underestimate your opponent: Hindsight bias causes overplacement and overentry into competition

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ترجمه فارسی عنوان مقاله:

هرگز حریف خود را دست کم نگیرید: تعصب عقاید باعث اضافه جای و اضافه کار در رقابت می شود

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منبع:

Sciencedirect - Elsevier - Games and Economic Behavior, 124 (2020) 588–603: 10:1016/j:geb:2020:10:001

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نویسنده:

David Danz

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چکیده انگلیسی:

This study investigates a source of comparative overconfidence, or over placement, which occurs when people overestimate themselves relative to others. We present a simple application of information projection (Madarász, 2012) to show that hindsight bias can lead to over placement and excessive willingness to compete. We run an experiment in which subjects choose between a competitive tournament and piece-rate compensation after observing some of their competitors’ past performance. We exogenously manipulate whether subjects have ex post information about their competitors’ past tasks (hindsight) or not (no hindsight). We find that hindsight bias generates over placement and increases subjects’ valuation of tournament participation by 19%. In line with theory, the additional tournament entry in the hindsight setting is driven by low-performing participants who should not have entered the tournament.
Keywords: Overconfidence | Tournament | Hindsight bias | Curse of knowledge | Information projection | Beliefs | Entrepreneurship

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قیمت: رایگان

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توضیحات اضافی:

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