سال انتشار:
2021
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
Accounting for uncertainties due to high-impact low-probability events in power system development
ترجمه فارسی عنوان مقاله:
محاسبه عدم قطعیت های ناشی از رویدادهای با احتمال کم تاثیر زیاد در توسعه سیستم قدرت
منبع:
ScienceDirect- Elsevier- Electric Power Systems Research, 193 (2021) 107015: doi:10:1016/j:epsr:2020:107015
نویسنده:
Iver Bakken Sperstad
چکیده انگلیسی:
In the long-term development of the electric power system, system operators should consider the socio-economic
balance between grid investment costs and security of supply, including the risk of power supply interruptions.
Cost-benefit analyses conducted for this purpose are associated with many uncertainties but have traditionally
focused on the expected value of the net socio-economic benefits of risk-reducing measures. This article focuses
on the large uncertainties that are associated with the possible occurrence of high-impact low-probability
interruption events (HILP events). The objective is to quantify and visualize the implications of uncertainties due
to HILP events in the context of power system development. More specifically, this article describes a method-
ology accounting for uncertainties in socio-economic cost-benefit analysis of measures for reducing the risk of
HILP events. The methodology accounts for the contributions of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties and
comprises a hybrid probabilistic-possibilistic uncertainty analysis method. Applying the methodology to a real
case involving a grid investment decision, it is demonstrated how it provides additional insight compared to
conventional cost-benefit analyses considering expected values where uncertainties are not accounted for
explicitly. It is furthermore discussed how these results can help to better inform grid development decisions.
keywords: برنامه ریزی سیستم قدرت | تحلیل ریسک | آسیب پذیری | قابلیت اطمینان سیستم قدرت | رویدادهای فوق العاده | Power system planning | Risk analysis | Vulnerability | Power system reliability | Extraordinary events
قیمت: رایگان
توضیحات اضافی:
تعداد نظرات : 0