سال انتشار:
2021
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:
Improved probit models to assess equipment failure caused by domino effect accounting for dynamic and synergistic effects of multiple fires
ترجمه فارسی عنوان مقاله:
مدل های پروبیت بهبود یافته برای ارزیابی خرابی تجهیزات ناشی از تاثیر دومینو حسابداری برای اثرات پویا و سینرژیک چندین آتش سوزی
منبع:
ScienceDirect- Elsevier- Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 154 (2021) 306-314: doi:10:1016/j:psep:2021:08:020
نویسنده:
Jianfeng Zhou
چکیده انگلیسی:
Accidents resulting in industrial fires in chemical and process installations and in industrial parks where
relevant quantities of hazardous substances are stored or processed may cause domino effects. Probit
models developed and used in a multitude of studies can provide the probability of equipment failure,
but they do not consider the effect of multiple radiation sources, and thus fail to capture the effects of
severe scenarios as those where multiple fires start at different times in different units. In the present
study, a critical thermal dose for equipment failure is defined. A direct procedure for the calculation of ttf
based on the critical thermal dose is then introduced, which is able to account for the time at which the
different secondary fires start or are extinguished. This allows considering the effects of the primary and
of several secondary fire scenarios in causing a domino effect, updating the time to failure on the basis
of the dynamic evolution of multiple fire scenarios. The proposed approach is demonstrated through
case-studies addressing fire-induced domino effects in an oil storage tank farm.
keywords: مواد شیمیایی | اثرات دومینو | مدل های پروبیت | زمان شکست | Chemical fires | Domino effects | Probit models | Time to failure
قیمت: رایگان
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