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نتیجه جستجو - داوری متخصص ساختاری

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ردیف عنوان نوع
1 Knowledge representation using non-parametric Bayesian networks for tunneling risk analysis
نمایش دانش با استفاده از شبکه های بیزی غیر پارامتری برای تجزیه و تحلیل ریسک تونل زنی-2019
Knowledge capture and reuse are critical in the risk management of tunneling works. Bayesian networks (BNs) are promising for knowledge representation due to their ability to integrate domain knowledge, encode causal relationships, and update models when evidence is available. However, the model development based on classic BNs is challenging when expert opinions are solicited due to the discretization of variables and quantification of large conditional probability tables. This study applies non-parametric BNs, which only require the elicitation of the marginal distribution corresponding to each node and correlation coefficient associated with each edge, to develop a knowledge-based expert system for tunneling risk analysis. In particular, we propose to use the pairwise Pearsons linear correlations to parameterize the model because the assessment is intuitive and experts in the engineering domain are more familiar and comfortable with this notion. However, when Spearmans rank correlation is given, the method can also be used by modification of the marginals. The method is illustrated with a tunnel case in the Wuhan metro project. The expert knowledge of risk assessment for common failures in shield tunneling is integrated and visualized. The developed model is validated by real documented accidents. Potential applications of the model are also explored, such as decision support for risk-based design.
Keywords: Non-parametric Bayesian networks | Structured expert judgment | Expert system | Risk analysis | Tunneling
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