با سلام خدمت کاربران عزیز، به اطلاع می رساند ترجمه مقالاتی که سال انتشار آن ها زیر 2008 می باشد رایگان بوده و میتوانید با وارد شدن در صفحه جزییات مقاله به رایگان ترجمه را دانلود نمایید.
Know when to fold ‘em: An empirical description of risk management in public research funding
بدانید چه موقع برابر شوید: شرح تجربی مدیریت ریسک در بودجه تحقیق عمومی-2020
Public research funding programs typically make grants with minimal intervention by program staff, rather than using a hands-on approach to project management, which is more common in the private sector. In contrast, program staff at the US Department of Energys Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy (ARPA-E) are given a set of real options with which to manage funded projects: abandon, contract or expand project budgets or timelines. Using internal data from ARPA-E, we show that active project management enables risk mitigation across a portfolio of research projects. We find that program staff modify projects frequently, especially project timelines, and these changes are more sensitive to poor performance than to strong performance. We also find that projects with a shortened timeline or reduced budget are less likely to generate short-term research outputs, compared to those of ultimately similar size. This evidence suggests that the practice of active project management, when combined with high upfront risk tolerance, can be used to enhance the productivity of missionoriented public research funding.
Keywords: R&D funding | Project management | Real options | Managerial flexibility
Managing the risks of energy efficiency insurances in a portfolio context: An actuarial diversification approach
مدیریت ریسک بیمه های بهره وری انرژی در یک زمینه پرتفوی: یک رویکرد متنوع سازی مجذوب-2020
To achieve ambitious international climate goals, an increase of energy efficiency investments is necessary and, thus, a growing market potential arises. Concomitantly, the relevance of managing the risk of financing and insuring energy efficiency measures increases continuously. Energy Efficiency Insurances encourage investors by guaranteeing a predefined energy efficiency performance. However, literature on quantitative analysis of pricing and diversification effects of such novel insurance solutions is scarce. This paper provides a first approach for the analysis of diversification potential on three levels: collective risk diversification, cross product line diversification, and financial hedging. Based on an extensive real-world data set for German residential buildings, the analysis reveals that underwriting different Energy Efficiency Insurance types and constructing Markowitz Minimum Variance Portfolios halves overall risk in terms of standard deviation. We evince that Energy Efficiency Insurances can diversify property insurance portfolios and reduce regulatory capital for insurers under Solvency II constraints. Moreover, we show that Energy Efficiency Insurances potentially supersede financial market instruments such as weather derivatives in diversifying property insurance portfolios. In summary, these three levels of diversification effects constitute an additional benefit for the introduction of Energy Efficiency Insurances and may positively impact their market development.
Keywords: Energy efficiency investment | Energy efficiency insurance | Energy portfolio risk management | Energy portfolio optimization | Risk diversification
Economic feasibility valuing of deep mineral resources based on risk analysis: Songtao manganese ore - China case study
ارزیابی امکان سنجی اقتصادی منابع معدنی عمیق بر اساس ریسک تجزیه و تحلیل: سنگ معدن منگنز Songtao - مطالعه موردی چین-2020
The exploitation of deep mineral resources is an inevitable choice under economic development and resource shortage. Assessing the economic feasibility of deep mineral resource exploit projects is a prerequisite for resource industry development. Mining industry have some problems influence its economic feasibility, including long mining period, high infrastructure investment and lack flexibility, and have risks of geology instability and economic reserve degrade. On the other hand, with the increase of the buried depth of mineral resources, some problems have intensified the uncertainty of the profit of deep resource utilization project, such as high stress, high lithology, high temperature environment, and increase of upgrading cost. Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) are traditional economic evaluation means which difficult to identify and assess risks precisely. Decoupled Net Present Value (DNPV) provides an efficiency tool to separate the time value and risk cost which is helpful to finds the real value of projects. A manganese mining project which is located Guizhou province, China is analyzed, paper choices several mainly risks of influence expected revenue to analysis project feasibility based on the DNPV technology, which includes the thickness of ore body, ore grade, market price, operation cost and nature disaster. The cost of potential environmental risk (carbon emission cost) also is analyzed. Paper constructs a risk management framework by risk identify, assess and classification, and analyzes the corresponding measures to reduce risk costs. The mainly risk cost of study case from market price shock and unexpected ore grade decline, which accounting for 80% of the total risk cost. In the process of deep mineral resources exploit, effective cost control measures can reduce the risk cost to a certain extent, including improving productivity, reducing unit cost of ore, improving mine sustainability and exploration accuracy. Green mineral construction is a feasible direction of deep resource utilization. For improve the accuracy of economic feasibility evaluation of deep mineral resources utilization, further improvement is needed in the selection and construction of different risk assessment model.
Keywords: Deep mining | Risk value assess | DNPV | Risk management | Songtao manganese
Risk propagation and mitigation of design change for complex product development (CPD) projects based on multilayer network theory
انتشار ریسک و کاهش تغییر طراحی برای پروژه های پیچیده توسعه محصول (CPD) بر اساس تئوری شبکه چند لایه-2020
Change risk propagation caused by unexpected design change has become a major source of risk to complex product development (CPD) projects and provides great challenge to existing project risk management methods. The aim of this paper is to reveal the law of design change risk propagation and mitigate the disruptive design change risk propagation through improving the robustness and resilience of CPD projects. First, the CPD projects are represented by multilayer networks with product-layer and organization-layer. Then, the model of design change risk propagation is built based on load-capacity model under the consideration of change risk mitigation strategies including redundant resource, inter-partner coordination, and project learning efficiency. Furthermore, the effects of these strategies and their portfolios are estimated through numerical simulation. The results provide the most cost-effective strategies to ultimately recover the multilayer CPD network within a certain time frame. This paper proposes a new perspective to mitigate the design change risk of CPD projects after the definition of project architecture and have implications for project managers to make reasonable decisions according to concrete project contexts.
Keywords: Complex product development | Project risk management | Design change | Risk propagation | Risk mitigation
Integrating case-based analysis and fuzzy optimization for selecting project risk response actions
تلفیق تجزیه و تحلیل مبتنی بر مورد و بهینه سازی فازی برای انتخاب اقدامات واکنش ریسک پروژه-2020
This article proposes a method based on case-based analysis and fuzzy optimization to provide decision support in project risk response. The main steps of the method are: (1) the formulation of alternative risk response actions (RRAs) based on case-based analysis, and (2) the determination of the optimal set of RRAs using a fuzzy optimization model. Based on the method, project managers (PMs) can find out alternative RRAs and further determine an optimal set of RRAs. Some managerial suggestion and implication are drawn from the results of the article. First, to perform better risk response in future, it is suggested that organizations should always capture a long-term perspective, with an awareness of keeping documents of all handled historical projects. Second, since each RRA obtained from alternative historical cases nee Keywords: Project risk management | Case-based | Risk response action (RRA) | Fuzzy optimization
Risk management in the software life cycle: A systematic literature review
مدیریت ریسک در چرخه عمر نرم افزار: مروری بر ادبیات سیستماتیک-2020
Risk management (RM) plays a key role in project management, as it allows identification and prompt management of threats that may arise during project execution. Furthermore, project management within the software industry is evolving rapidly nowadays, a fact that implies new challenges, because the emergence and use of fresh approaches has brought a greater degree of complexity to the RM process. The objective of this paper is to carry out a systematic literature review (SLR) in the field of software risk, in an attempt to characterize and present the state of the art of this field, identifying gaps and opportunities for further research. From the analysis of the results of this SLR it could be observed that interest on the part of the scientific community has turned away from the definition of research work that addressed an integrated risk management process, to pay attention to work that concentrates on specific activities of this process. It was also possible to see that there is a clear lack of scientific rigour as regards the process of validation in the different studies, and a deficiency in the use of standards or of de facto models to define these.
Keywords: Software risk | Risk management activities | ISO 31000 | Software life cycle processes | ISO 12207 | Systematic literature review
Risk assessment and management via multi-source information fusion for undersea tunnel construction
ارزیابی و مدیریت ریسک از طریق تلفیق اطلاعات چند منبع برای ساخت تونل زیر زمینی -2020
The construction of undersea tunnels is an extremely risky endeavor that is vulnerable to water seepage and gushing due to the high water pressure, complex geological conditions, and pore water trapped in unstable rocks. This risk can lead to the collapse of tunnels under construction and disastrous consequences of fatalities and injuries as well as project delays and financial losses. The current risk management practices for tunnel construction projects in China are static and rely on the subjective judgement of experts and practitioners and do not incorporate real-time monitoring data during the construction process at this time. This paper presents a new method and system to assess and manage the risks during the construction process by coupling the risk management system and the quality management system and integrating jobsite monitoring data, design data, and environmental data. In this new method and system, the risk factors are categorized into (hu)man, material, machine, method, and environment, or 4M1E, and are quantitatively measured. The Dempster-Shaffer (D-S) theory was adopted in this method to both fuse the 4M1E data and to compute the aggregate risk index. This new method and system was tested during the Xiamen Metro Line No. 3 project when a shield machine cutter accident occurred. The results show that, before the accident, the individual risk measures in all five dimensions (4M1E) and the aggregate risk index were extremely high, which clearly illustrated the feasibility and capability of the newly developed method and system.
Keywords: Undersea tunnel construction | Multi-source information fusion | Construction risk | D-S evidence theory | Fuzzy matter element
Farmers’ perceptions and management of risk in rice/shrimp farming systems in South-West Coastal Bangladesh
برداشت کشاورزان و مدیریت ریسک در برنج / میگو و سیستم های کشاورزی در جنوب غربی ساحل بنگلادش-2020
Farmers in Bangladesh face considerable risk due to fluctuations in biophysical and economic conditions, but the response to these risks is poorly understood. In particular, there is a need to better understand the endogenous management of risk in the rice/shrimp farming systems that have emerged in the inner coastal zone of Bangladesh. This paper draws on a case study of a typical rice/shrimp farming village in Khulna District to explore: (a) farmers’ perceptions of risks and their management responses, (b) risk-return trade-offs within small-, medium-, and large-farm households, and (c) the role of other farm and non-farm activities in mitigating risks to household livelihoods. Farm-level data were collected through a reconnaissance survey, a village census, household case studies, and a sample survey of 73 households. Representative farm budgets were constructed for the three farm-size classes. The key performance indicators calculated were gross margin (GM), net income (NI), and GM per workday of family labour. The riskiness of the rice/shrimp system was assessed for each farm type using farmers’ estimates of low, normal, and high yields and prices to specify triangular distributions. Cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) for GM, NI, and GM per workday were generated. A whole-farm economic analysis was also conducted to assess the relative contributions of different sources of income for each farm type. With access to saline water for shrimp farming in the dry season and fresh water for rice in the wet season, farmers have developed and progressively adapted an alternating rice/shrimp farming system that has minimised the trade-offs between the two crops and provides a good return to household and village resources for all farm types. The system is subject to significant production and market risks, especially the shrimp component. However, farmers have clearly perceived these risks and ameliorated them through a range of production, marketing, and management strategies. With these risk management practices, the rice/shrimp cropping system is economically viable, given the current variation in yields and prices. The greater risk associated with the shrimp component was offset by the renewed stability of the rice component over the past decade, and the risks of the whole cropping system were offset by other farm and non-farm sources of livelihood. Development interventions need to work with farmers to provide further options (suitable rice varieties, solutions to shrimp disease, improved village and transport infrastructure) if this resilience is to be maintained.
Keywords: Production risk | Market risk | Risk management | Rice | Shrimp | Farming systems | Farm economics | Coastal environment | Sustainability
Analyzing green building project risk interdependencies using Interpretive Structural Modeling
تجزیه و تحلیل وابستگی متقابل پروژه ساختمان سبز با استفاده از مدل سازی ساختاری تفسیری-2020
Green building (GB) projects have attracted wide attention in the construction industry in recent years owing to numerous benefits of green practices for sustainable development. However, existing research efforts on GB project risk management are very limited, and no prior in-depth research has focused on studying the risk interdependencies in GB projects from the perspectives of both the project life cycle and multiple project risks. This paper begins by identifying and distinguishing GB project constraints from multiple GB project risks using a systematic literature review and then investigates, based on the Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) method, the risk interdependencies taking into account the identified 16 constraint factors, 22 risk factors and 11 objectives throughout a GB project life cycle. The importance of constraints and risk factors associated with GB project objectives was calculated based on the influence transmission through network paths in the established ISM-based model. In addition, the Matrice d’Impacts Croises Multiplication Appliquee a un Classement (MICMAC) approach was used to analyze the drive and dependence powers of risk interdependency elements. Critical constraints and risk factors in the implementation of GB projects can be obtained from the proposed risk analysis model, which contributes to an in-depth risk perception of GB projects for industry practitioners and facilitates GB project risk management in a more effective way
Keywords: Green building projects | Risk management | Risk interdependencies | Interpretive structural modeling (ISM) | Matrice d’Impacts Croises Multiplication | Appliquee a un Classement (MICMAC) | analysis
Supply chain risk management considering put options and service level constraints
مدیریت ریسک زنجیره تأمین با توجه به گزینه ها و محدودیت های سطح خدمات-2020
This paper considers a supply chain composed of a supplier and a retailer who commits to a service level to make end-users happy and promote sales. To reduce the losses resulting from the high demand volatility, the retailer purchases put options from the supplier to adjust its initial order. The optimal ordering and production policies with and without put options under the service level constraint are derived. We find that, in the two cases, the expected profits of the retailer are non-increasing in the service level constraint while that of the supplier are non-decreasing in it. Model comparison reveals that with put options, the retailer will offer higher service level and earn more profit than without; such effect is more salient when the demand is more variable. However, the put option contract will not always benefit the supplier especially when the service constraint is high. We also find that put option contract can effectively improve the decentralized system’s performance, but this only happens when the service constraint is low. In addition, we find that put option contract have no better capability than wholesales price contract in coordinating the supply chain in the presence of a service level constraint.
Keywords: Risk management | Supply chain management | Put option contract | Service level constraints | Operations-finance-marketing interfaces