یک مدل شبیه سازی برای توسعه شهری در چین
سال انتشار: 2018 - تعداد صفحات فایل pdf انگلیسی: 5 - تعداد صفحات فایل doc فارسی: 14
شهری سازی سریع در طی چهار دهه اخیر و از زمان اصلاحات اقتصادی که در سال 1978 شروع شد در چین اتفاق افتاده است. سیستم برنامه ریزی که برای اقتصاد برنامه ریزی شده قبل از اصلاحات اقتصادی استفاده شده است شکست خورده است، با این حال، برای سازگار شدن با گذر به فرآیند توسعه شهری تحت رژیم بازار اقتصادی بوده است. به ویژه، روش فعلی استفاده از برنامه های مبتنی بر طراحی که روی کنترل بالا – به – پایین توسعه شهری تمرکز دارد برای ایجاد رشد شهری غیر موثر است. گسترش شهری در نواحی مادرشهری و توسعه اقتصادی نامتعادل بین نواحی شهری و روستایی مشکلات اجتماعی، اقتصادی و محیطی جدی ایجاد کرده است. به علاوه، سیاست های توسعه شهری و منطقه ای معمولا" توسط دولت چین و بدون یک پایه تحلیلی علمی قابل اطمینان ساخته می شوند. بنابراین دولت چین با عدم قطعیت چشمگیری درمورد الگوهای آتی توسعه شهری و تاثیرات چنین سیاست هایی روی تلاش برای راهنمایی فرآیند توسعه شهری درسرتاسر کشور مواجه است. بنابراین یک نیاز فوری به ساخت یک مدل علمی وجود دارد که بتواند به پیش بینی گرایشات آتی در فرآیند توسعه شهری و به منظور پشتیبانی از تصمیم گیری دولتهای مرکزی در سیاست گذاری درمورد زمان و مکان سرمایه گذاری روی زیرساخت ها، خانه سازی و تامین اجتماعی در شهرهای چین کمک کند.
|مقاله ترجمه شده|
Application of fuzzy weight of evidence and data mining techniques in construction of flood susceptibility map of Poyang County, China
استفاده از وزن فازی شواهد و تکنیک های داده کاوی در ساخت نقشه حساس سیل شهرستان پوینانگ، چین-2018
In China, floods are considered as the most frequent natural disaster responsible for severe economic losses and serious damages recorded in agriculture and urban infrastructure. Based on the international experience preven tion of flood events may not be completely possible, however identifying susceptible and vulnerable areas through prediction models is considered as a more visible task with flood susceptibility mapping being an essen tial tool for flood mitigation strategies and disaster preparedness. In this context, the present study proposes a novel approach to construct a flood susceptibility map in the Poyang County, JiangXi Province, China by implementing fuzzy weight of evidence (fuzzy-WofE) and data mining methods. The novelty of the presented approach is the usage of fuzzy-WofE that had a twofold purpose. Firstly, to create an initial flood susceptibility map in order to identify non-flood areas and secondly to weight the importance of flood related variables which influence flooding. Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) were implemented considering eleven flood related variables, namely: lithology, soil cover, elevation, slope angle, aspect, topographic wetness index, stream power index, sediment transport index, plan curvature, profile curvature and distance from river network. The efficiency of this new approach was evaluated using area under curve (AUC) which measured the prediction and success rates. According to the outcomes of the performed analysis, the fuzzy WofE-SVM model was the model with the highest predictive performance (AUC value,
Keywords: Flood susceptibility ، Fuzzy WofE ، Data mining methods ، China
Applying genetic algorithms to set the optimal combination of forest fire related variables and model forest fire susceptibility based on data mining models. The case of Dayu County, China
استفاده از الگوریتم ژنتیک برای ترکیب تنظیم بهینه متغیرهای مرتبط با آتش سوزی جنگل و مدل حساسیت آتش سوزی جنگل بر اساس مدل های داده کاوی معدن :مورد شهرستان دایو، چین-2018
The main objective of the present study was to utilize Genetic Algorithms (GA) in order to obtain the optimal combination of forest fire related variables and apply data mining methods for constructing a forest fire suscep tibility map. In the proposed approach, a Random Forest (RF) and a Support Vector Machine (SVM) was used to produce a forest fire susceptibility map for the Dayu County which is located in southwest of Jiangxi Province, China. For this purpose, historic forest fires and thirteen forest fire related variables were analyzed, namely: elevation, slope angle, aspect, curvature, land use, soil cover, heat load index, normalized difference vegetation index, mean annual temperature, mean annual wind speed, mean annual rainfall, distance to river network and dis tance to road network. The Natural Break and the Certainty Factor method were used to classify and weight the thirteen variables, while a multicollinearity analysis was performed to determine the correlation among the variables and decide about their usability. The optimal set of variables, determined by the GA limited the number of variables into eight excluding from the analysis, aspect, land use, heat load index, distance to river net work and mean annual rainfall. The performance of the forest fire models was evaluated by using the area under the Receiver Operating Charac teristic curve (ROC-AUC) based on the validation dataset. Overall, the RF models gave higher AUC values. Also the
Keywords: Forest fire susceptibility ، Genetic algorithm ، Random Forest ، Support vector machine ، China
Green total factor productivity of Chinas mining and quarrying industry: A global data envelopment analysis
بهره وری کل عوامل سبز در صنعت معدن و معادن درچین :تجزیه و تحلیل پوشش داده های جهانی-2018
Chinas mining and quarrying industry is characterized by “high pollution, high energy consumption, and high emissions.” Improving this sectors green total factor productivity (TFP) is of great importance for furthering the sustainable development of Chinas economy. Using a global data envelopment analysis (DEA), this paper analyzes the green TFP of Chinas mining and quarrying industry for the period of 1991–2014 with regard to technology, scale, and management. The following results are found. First, during the sample period, the green TFP of Chinas mining and quarrying industry increased by 71.7%. Technological progress was the most im portant contributor, and the decline in scale efficiency and management efficiency were two inhibitors. Fortunately, in recent years, management efficiency has gradually improved and become a new impetus for green TFP growth. Second, the characteristics of the green TFPs in the sub-industries vary considerably. During the sample period, the green TFPs of the mining and processing of ferrous metal ores (MPFMO), the mining and processing of non-ferrous metal ores (MPNFMO), and the mining and processing of nonmetal ores (MPNO) grew rapidly and became the benchmarks, whereas those of the mining and washing of coal (MWC) and the extraction of petroleum and natural gas (EPNG) remained very low. Third, the returns to scale of the sub-industries also varied. EPNG, MPNFMO, MPNO were in the stage of increasing returns to scale or constant returns to scale during the entire period, whereas MWC and MPFMO have recently entered the stage of decreasing returns to scale.
Keywords: DEA ، Technological progress ، Green TFP ، China
A participatory sustainability assessment for integrated watershed management in urban China
ارزیابی پایداری مشارکتی برای حوضه یکپارچه مدیریت در شهر چینی-2018
This paper introduces a participatory framework for Sustainability Assessment (SA) for urban Integrated Watershed Management (IWM). The framework is applied to the Lihu Lake Basin (Wuxi City), where between 2002 and 2012 an IWM program was implemented, coordinating water environmental management measures with urban planning. The framework for SA introduced in this paper is based on a Multi-Criteria-Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach integrating criteria of environmental, economic, and social sustainability. Local stakeholders were engaged in focus group discussions (FGDs) to validate and weigh criteria and attributes employed in the SA framework. Results of the model application indicate that the programme implemented in the Lihu Basin yielded positive results in enhancing environmental conditions, providing more sustainable avenues of environmental management funding, and fostering economic growth. Despite efforts put forward by local authorities, performance of social indicators was comparatively worse, due to relocation policies, increase in housing prices, and scarce public participation. Results show that decision makers pursued viability, rather than comprehensive sustainability.
Keywords: Water management ، Urban renewal ، Sustainability ، Assessment ، MCDA ، China
The rapid evolution of speculative investment in the REE market before, during, and after the rare earth crisis of 2010–2012
تحول سریع سرمایه گذاری های احتمالی در بازار REE قبل از آن،در طول و پس از بحران زمین نادر 2010-2012-2018
The purpose of this study is to examine the rate of investment capital that flowed into the rare earth element (REE) junior mining market, to assess the key factors that affected this investment rate, before, during and after the Rare Earth Crisis of 2010–2012, and to determine the result of the total capital invested. The time period chosen for the study was 2006–2015. From the approximately 400 junior mining companies that were pursuing REE during this time period, 28 companies were chosen to represent the market for this study. During the time period, these 28 companies raised a total of $5,924,554,171, with $4,254,272,520 of this amount being raised during the Crisis time period of 2010–2012. Critical factors that affected money flowing into the rare earth junior mining companies were newsletter articles, media coverage, Chinese rare earth policies, government an nouncements and reports, the initial public offering of Molycorp, Inc., rare earth element prices, World Trade Organization decisions, and junior mining company stock prices. Of the 28 companies, only Lynas Corporation Ltd. and Molycorp, Inc. achieved commercial REE production. Capital flowing into REE junior mining companies declined rapidly from 2013 to 2015, as the market found other solutions and the Crisis subsided.
Keywords: Rare earth elements ، Junior mining investment ، REE crisis ، Export quota cut ، China
The Unintended Long-Term Consequences of Mao’s Mass Send-Down Movement: Marriage, Social Network, and Happiness
پیامدهای ناخواسته درازمدت حرکت روبه پایین عظیم مائو: ازدواج، شبکه اجتماعی و شادی-2017
This paper uses the China General Social Survey (CGSS) 2003 to evaluate the long-term consequences of a forced migration, the state’s ‘‘send-down” movement (shang shan xia xiang, or up to the mountains, down to the villages) during the Chinese Cultural Revolution, on individuals’ nonmaterial well-being. The send-down program resettled over 16 million urban youths to the countryside to carry out hard manual labor over the years 1968–78. Most of them were allowed to return to urban areas when the Cultural Revolution ended. To estimate the long-term impacts of the send-down experience, we compare the outcomes of individuals with send-down experience to those of individuals without send-down experience but having similar characteristics and family backgrounds during the senddown period. We conduct primarily OLS estimates with a careful sample selection. We find that those who had the send-down experience have worse marriage outcomes, lower-quality social networks, and a lower level of happiness than non-send-downs. The negative effects of the forced migration are robust against regression methods and various model specifications. Our study adds to the growing literature in economics that seeks to evaluate the impact of forced migration.
Key words : send-down movement | forced migration | marriage | social network | happiness | China
Shared tourism experience of individuals with disabilities and their caregivers
تجربه گردشگری مشترک افراد معلول و مراقبان آنها-2017
This research took a phenomenological approach to delineate shared tourism experiences of people who need assistance when traveling and their caregivers. If travel represents a temporary escape of everyday routines for an average traveler, travel for this group was found to represent a magnifying everydayness as they continue to be challenged with limitations as a result of disability. As demonstrated in the intensity of emotions and the mixed nature of them, tourism represents an extraordinary experience for this traveler segment despite the ordinary nature of their travel activities. Important insights are drawn with relation to the role of travel in the development of resistance strategies adopted by individuals with disabilities and their caregivers, as well as their value tendency for eudaimonic wellness.
Keywords: Shared tourism experience | Tourism experience | Travelers with disabilities | Caregivers | China
Reprint of: The spatial-temporal characteristics and health impacts of ambient fine particulate matter in China
بازنگری : ویژگی های فضایی-زمانی و تاثیرات سلامتی ذرات ریز محیط در چین-2017
Airborne particulate matter presents a serious health threat to human beings, but in China there have until now been few epidemiological studies, especially regarding the impact of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5). This study explored first the temporal and spatial characteristics of ambient airborne PM2.5 in China, 2013. Mortality, respiratory diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and chronic bronchitis were then evaluated as four health endpoints attributed to PM2.5. The results showed that the average annual PM2.5 concentration was 72.71 mg/m3; the PM2.5 concentration was below 35 mg/m3 for only 6% of the time, for the whole year. In terms of the PM2.5 concentration, January (133.10 mg/m3) and December (120.19 mg/m3) were the most polluted months, whereas July (38.76 mg/m3) and August (41.31 mg/m3) were the least polluted months. The most highly polluted areas were concentrated in North China. In terms of the health endpoints attributable to PM2.5, there were 763,595 mortality, 149,754 cardiovascular diseases, 446,035 respiratory diseases, and 2,389,035 chronic bronchitis cases. Results were very important to clarify the current PM2.5 pollution situation and the health impact of PM2.5 in China. And also provided a reference for the assessing damage caused by PM2.5 pollution.
Keywords: Air pollution | Fine particulate matter | Health impact | China
Do Foreign Directors Mitigate Earnings Management? Evidence From China
آیا مدیران خارجی مدیریت سود را کاهش می دهند؟ شواهد از چین-2017
In this study, we use a sample of Chinese companies to examine the monitoring role of foreign directors in deterring earnings management. Our findings show that earnings management is significantly negatively associated with the presence and ratio of foreign directors on corporate boards. We further find that, under these conditions, earnings management is less pronounced in state-owned enterprises as compared to others. These findings are robust to various specifications of earnings management as well as to the approach used in matching the treatment and control samples. Interestingly, the negative impact of board membership of foreign directors on earnings management varies with audit quality, IFRS convergence, investor protection and the similarity or difference of the time zones of the foreign directors and China.
Keywords: Foreign directors | Earnings management | State-owned enterprises (SOEs) | China