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Civil unrest, emergency powers, and spillover effects: A mixed methods analysis of the 2005 French riots
ناآرامی های غیرنظامی ، قدرت اضطراری و گسترش تأثیرات : تجزیه و تحلیل روش های مختلط از شورش های فرانسه در 2005-2020 From early to mid-November 2005, many French urban suburbs experienced riots. In the affected areas the government declared a state of emergency which gave the police ex- trajudicial powers. It remained in place until January. I investigate whether the riots gen- erated criminal spillovers, whether the emergency powers deterred criminal activity, and whether the police used those powers opportunistically to bust crime unrelated to the riots. I supplement linear regressions with a non-parametric bounded-variation assump- tions framework combined with a synthetic control approach, and interviews I conducted with two of the events’ key actors. Criminals did not take advantage of the riots to com- mit more crimes requiring planning. However, the riots triggered a surge of violent thefts. The state of emergency did not result in a decrease in delinquency. Several clues sug- gest a strategy of appeasement. Meanwhile, some serious crimes increased immediately after the riots ended, suggesting an emboldening effect. Evidence of police opportunism is scant. Keywords: Riots | Opportunism | Crime | Police | Emergency powers | Bounded variation assumptions |
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