An ontology-based methodology for hazard identification and causation analysis
یک روش مبتنی بر هستی شناسی برای شناسایی ریسک و تجزیه و تحلیل علیت-2019
This article presents a dynamic hazard identification methodology founded on an ontology-based knowl-edge modeling framework coupled with probabilistic assessment. The objective is to develop an efficientand effective knowledge-based tool for process industries to screen hazards and conduct rapid risk esti-mation. The proposed generic model can translate an undesired process event (state of the process)into a graphical model, demonstrating potential pathways to the process event, linking causation tothe transition of states. The Semantic web-based Web Ontology Language (OWL) is used to captureknowledge about unwanted process events. The resulting knowledge model is then transformed intoProbabilistic-OWL (PR-OWL) based Multi-Entity Bayesian Network (MEBN). Upon queries, the MEBNsproduce Situation Specific Bayesian Networks (SSBN) to identify hazards and their pathways along withprobabilities. Two open-source software programs, Protégé and UnBBayes, are used. The developed modelis validated against 45 industrial accidental events extracted from the U.S. Chemical Safety Board’s (CSB)database. The model is further extended to conduct causality analysis.
Keywords:Hazard identification |Probabilistic ontology |Web ontology language | Multi-entity Bayesian network | Expert system
Medico-legal considerations and operative vaginal delivery
ملاحظات پزشکی قانونی و زایمان واژینال عملیاتی-2019
Women undergo operative vaginal delivery (OVD) as an alternative to caesarean section when complications arise in the second stage of labour. The perinatal mortality associated with OVD is very low, and most of the perinatal morbidity is minor. However, when serious adverse events occur, such as traumatic birth injury, shoulder dystocia, cerebral palsy and perinatal death, there are medico-legal implications. There is also the potential for litigation in relation to maternal pelvic floor injury, which is increased with OVD. Obstetricians performing and supervising OVDs need to be aware of the potential pitfalls and minimise the risk of adverse outcomes. Given that most obstetricians will be involved in adverse birth-related events, it is important that they are aware of the legal processes that may ensue. It is also important when reviewing adverse OVD-related outcomes that association is differentiated from causation. These issues are addressed in the current chapter with attention drawn to the Montgomery ruling, which redefines the legal standards expected in relation to informed consent.
Keywords: Operative vaginal delivery (OVD) | Serious adverse events | Litigation | Medico-legal | Causation | Montgomery ruling
Causality measures and analysis: A rough set framework
اقدامات علیت و تجزیه و تحلیل: چارچوب مجموعه ای خشن-2019
Data and rules power expert systems and intelligent systems. Rules, as a form of knowledge representa- tion, can be acquired by experts or learned from data. The accuracy and precision of knowledge largely determines the success of the systems, which awakens the concern for causality. The ability to elicit cause–effect rules directly from data is key and difficult to any expert systems and intelligent systems. Rough set theory has succeeded in automatically transforming data into knowledge, where data are often presented as an attribute-value table. However, the existing tools in this theory are currently incapable of interpreting counterfactuals and interventions involved in causal analysis. This paper offers an attempt to characterize the cause–effect relationships between attributes in attribute-value tables with intent to overcome existing limitations. First, we establish the main conditions that attributes need to satisfy in order to estimate the causal effects between them, by employing the back-door criterion and the ad- justment formula for a directed acyclic graph. In particular, based on the notion of lower approximation, we extend the back-door criterion to an original data table without any graphical structures. We then identify the effects of the interventions and the counterfactual interpretation of causation between at- tributes in such tables. Through illustrative studies completed for some attribute-value tables, we show the procedure for identifying the causation between attributes and examine whether the dependency of the attributes can describe causality between them.
Keywords: Rough set | Lower approximation | Causal effect | Intervention | Counterfactual
Social causation and neighborhood selection underlie associations of neighborhood factors with illicit drug-using social networks and illicit drug use among adults relocated from public housing
علل اجتماعی و انتخاب محله به عنوان انجمن های عوامل محله با شبکه های اجتماعی غیر قانونی استفاده از مواد مخدر و استفاده از مواد مخدر غیرمجاز در بین بزرگسالان خانه های عمومی-2017
Theories of social causation and social influence, which posit that neighborhood and social network characteristics are distal causes of substance use, are frequently used to interpret associations among neighborhood characteristics, social network characteristics and substance use. These associations are also hypothesized to result from selection processes, in which substance use determines where people live and who they interact with. The potential for these competing selection mechanisms to co-occur has been underexplored among adults. This study utilizes path analysis to determine the paths that relate census tract characteristics (e.g., economic deprivation), social network characteristics (i.e., having 1 illicit drug-using network mem ber) and illicit drug use, among 172 African American adults relocated from public housing in Atlanta, Georgia and followed from 2009 to 2014 (7 waves). Individual and network-level characteristics were captured using surveys. Census tract characteristics were created using administrative data. Waves 1 (pre-relocation), 2 (1st wave post-relocation), and 7 were analyzed. When controlling for individual-level sociodemographic factors, residing in census tracts with prior economic disadvantage was significantly associated with illicit drug use at wave 1; illicit drug use at wave 1 was significantly associated with living in economically-disadvantaged census tracts at wave 2; and violent crime at wave 2 was associated with illicit drug-using social network members at wave 7. Findings from this study support theories that describe social causation and neighborhood selection processes as explaining relationships of neighborhood characteristics with illicit drug use and illicit drug using social networks. Policies that improve local economic and social conditions of neighborhoods may discourage substance use. Future studies should further identify the barriers that prevent substance users from obtaining housing in less disadvantaged neighborhoods.
Keywords: Social epidemiology | Housing | Neighborhoods | Drug use
Causality in direct air services and tourism demand
علیت در خدمات هوایی مستقیم و تقاضای گردشگری-2017
Unlike income or relative prices, air transport attributes and tourism demand on a given route can be endogenous. Using instrumental variables, this study attempted to account for the circular causality in estimating the effect of direct air service on tourism demand. Although we found evidence of endogeneity, the nature of the circular causation is context-specific; while direct air service can be regarded as an exogenous variable in one direction, it can have an endogenous relationship on the other. Findings emphasise the need to explicate information about the net work nature of transportation and its endogenous relations with tourism.
Keywords: Direct air services | Air transport liberalization | Tourism demand | Endogeneity | LIML estimator | Instrumental variable
Entrepreneurial marketing of international high-tech business-to-business new ventures: A decision-making process perspective
بازاریابی کارآفرینی بین المللی با تکنولوژی بالا تجاری به تجاری سرمایه گذاری های جدید: دیدگاه فرایند تصمیم گیری-2017
Knowledge of how entrepreneurial marketing is conducted in industrial markets is currently rather weak. This study explores the marketing decision-making process of entrepreneurs undertaking entrepreneurial marketing in international new ventures (INVs) operating in high-tech business-to-business markets. A qualitative study conducted with entrepreneurs from four case firms reveals that due to the iterative, incremental, and co creative nature of the process, marketing decision making in high-tech business-to-business INVs that is more effectual than causal results in more entrepreneurial marketing. A novel finding is that entrepreneurs alternate causal and effectual marketing forms as a result of their ambidextrous entrepreneurialism, and variations in the internal uncertainty, technological uncertainty, and any market turbulence faced by the firm. We develop a dynamic model presenting the alternation between effectual and causal processes, and the feedback loop of en trepreneurial marketing. The research offers implications for the management of organizations operating under conditions of uncertainty on how their decision-making processes can optimize entrepreneurial marketing, how to create new markets, and how to reduce the perceived uncertainty in industrial markets.
Keywords: Entrepreneurial marketing | International new venture | Decision-making process | Effectuation | Causation | Business-to-business | High-tech
Contemporary 21st century therapeutic jurisprudence in civil cases: Building bridges between law and psychology
علم حقوق معاصر قرن 21 و درمان شناسی در پرونده های مدنی: ساخت پل بین قانون و روانشناسی-2016
To avoid trials in civil disputes has a long tradition, but most alternatives within Alternative dispute resolution (ADR) have been focused on legal arguments and economy of time and cost. A modern alternative should be interdisciplinary and be based on psychosocial knowledge and ambitions to find solutions that satisfy both parties in the long run. Therapeutic jurisprudence (TJ) is a relatively new concept and practice in Civil litigation. Therapeutic jurisprudence (TJ), developed by law professors David B. Wexler and Bruce Winick in the US in the 1980s, is based on the practical premise that findings from the behavioural sciences, predominantly psychology, can inform and improve how litigation is carried out. It is relevant to all areas of law in all countries/jurisdictions, and addresses well-being, positive win-win conflict resolution, positive communication and many other aspects of law. In this paper, therapeutic jurisprudence is discussed within the context of delivering a high quality, efficient and effective multi-professional litigation service. The relationship between therapeutic jurisprudence and total quality management (TQM) is explored in terms of process improvement, customer responsiveness and staff empowerment and ways to assess this. Therapeutic jurisprudence is recognised as a logical model for understanding and assessing the impact on the public and professionals of various aspects of the legal system. By clarifying the beneficial and nonbeneficial/non-therapeutic effects of legal and medico-legal process, therapeutic jurisprudence can help to reshape current legal practice. To date, therapeutic jurisprudence has not had a significant presence or influence in Civil litigation. This paper illustrates the considerable opportunity to improve the process and outcome of civil cases both in the UK and worldwide. Financial goals and enhanced psychological expectations go hand-in-hand. Therapeutic jurisprudence and total quality management are ideal vehicles to achieve these. Realizing the synergy between therapeutic jurisprudence and total quality management will allow the judiciary, lawyers, barristers and experts to collaborate more effectively in many ways to enhance the positive conflict resolution expected by claimants and insurers alike. Reference is made to how the Civil procedure rules (CPR) were introduced into the UK Civil Legal system in 1999, with emphasis on the Joint Opinion process and how this has allowed clearer definition of evidential disagreement and resulted in earlier dispute resolution, to the benefit of claimants and cost containment. The eight key aims of CPR were: be just in the results it delivers; be fair in the way it treats litigants; offer appropriate procedures at a reasonable cost; deal with cases with reasonable speed; be understandable to those who use it; be responsive to the needs of those who use it; provide as much certainty as the nature of particular cases allows; and be effective: adequately resourced and organized. To facilitate the development of therapeutic jurisprudence in the 21st century in the area of Civil litigation, an ‘‘agenda for change’’ is suggested which includes issues such as elaborating a TQM model for legal services involving measurement of litigation culture and values and developing strategies for process improvement, customer responsiveness and staff empowerment, increasing lawyer awareness of ‘‘diagnosis, causation and prognosis’’ concepts and increasing communication skills/styles for lawyers and judiciary including conflict resolution skills. It is widely acknowledged that the main customer — the claimant — experiences a relatively high level of stress during the litigation process. Both lawyers and psychologists believe that litigation stress has moderate to major effects on claimants’ psychological symptoms. However, the full extent to which litigation is stressful and what factors of litigation exacerbate or mediate psychological symptoms had