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Estimating cartel damages with model averaging approaches
برآورد خسارات کارتل با رویکردهای میانگینگیری مدل-2020 This research offers an easy-to-implement forecast combination procedure to deal with issues of model
uncertainty when evaluating cartel damages. We combine the Mallows model averaging (MMA) method
with both the dummy variable (DV) and forecasting approaches to investigate the famous citric acid cartel
case during the 1990s. The path of but-for prices generated from the MMA method with DV specification lies in-between those generated from the forecasting and DV methods, supporting the theoretical
properties of the MMA method that weights over different forecasts generated from various candidate
models. The findings indicate that the but-for prices generated from the MMA method could serve as a
useful robustness check for cartel damage estimations.
Keywords: Cartel | Antitrust | Damage estimation |
مقاله انگلیسی |