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نتیجه جستجو - Delphi

تعداد مقالات یافته شده: 42
ردیف عنوان نوع
1 چالش‌های احیای زنجیره‌ی تأمین در پی همه‌گیری کووید-19
سال انتشار: 2021 - تعداد صفحات فایل pdf انگلیسی: 14 - تعداد صفحات فایل doc فارسی: 46
همه‌گیری کرونا شکننده بودن زنجیره‌های تأمین جهانی در اثر کمبود مواد اولیه، اختلال در تولید و حمل و نقل، و فاصله‎گذاری اجتماعی را آشکار نمود. بایستی شرکت‌ها به دقت مشکلات مرتبط با احیا را پیش‌بینی نموده و راهبردهای مناسبی را برای اطمینان از بقای زنجیره‌های تأمین و کسب و کارهای خود تدوین نمایند. برای افزایش آگاهی از این مسائل، هدف پژوهش پیش رو، شناسایی و مدلسازی چالش‌های احیا در بستر صنعت پوشاک "دوخته‌فروش" بنگلادش است. روش آزمایش و آزمایشگاه ارزیابی و آزمون تصمیم‌گیری خاکستری مبتنی بر دلفی (DEMATEL) برای تحلیل داده‌ها استفاده شد. درحالیکه روش دلفی به شناسایی چالش‌های اصلی احیای زنجیره‌ی تأمین ناشی از تأثیرات همه‌گیری کووید-19 کمک می‌کند، رویکرد DEMATEL خاکستری به دسته‌بندی روابط علّی میان این چالش‌های کمک خواهد کرد. از بین 23 چالش احیای نهایی، 12 مورد، چالش‌های علّی هستند. یافته‌های این پژوهش می‌تواند به تصمیم‌گیرندگان در توسعه‌ی سیاست‌های راهبردی برای غلبه بر چالش‌های احیای در دوران پساکرونا کمک کند.
کلیدواژه ها: همه‌گیری کووید-19 | مدیریت زنجیره‎‌ی تأمین | چالش‌های احیا | روش دلفی | DEMATEL خاکستری.
مقاله ترجمه شده
2 Assessment of customer knowledge management in academic libraries: Design and validation of a checklist
ارزیابی مدیریت دانش مشتری در کتابخانه های دانشگاهی: طراحی و اعتبار سنجی چک لیست-2021
A review of the research background shows that despite the usability of customer knowledge for libraries, the concept of Customer Knowledge Management (CKM) in libraries is rarely addressed. The purpose of this study was to identify the indicators, operational instances as well as the design and validation of an all-inclusive CKM implementation instrument in academic libraries. The study was conducted in two quantitative and qualitative phases. The final instrument was a CKM strategy that consisted of various indicators preliminary designed by drawing on literature review, and operational instances identified by qualitative interviews with 12 academic library managers. A Delphi study with 20 experts was used to assess the experts’ degrees of agreement on the retrieved indicators and instances. The result was a reliable and valid checklist consisting of 67 instances under 6 major and 12 minor indicators. This instrument would allow managers to assess the state of CKM in their aca- demic libraries, improve their library performance by checking the strengths and weaknesses against the in- dicators, and also serve as a basis for training the academic library staff on how to successfully implement CKM. With objective instances, the instrument is expected to improve the quality of customer services, customer satisfaction, and customer loyalty.
keywords: مدیریت دانش | دانش مشتری | مدیریت دانش مشتری | کتابخانه های دانشگاهی | بازخورد مشتری | مطالعه دلفی | Knowledge management | Customer knowledge | Customer knowledge management | Academic libraries | Customer feedback | Delphi study
مقاله انگلیسی
3 Surveying the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) on the poultry supply chain: A mixed methods study
بررسی تأثیر ویروس کرونا (COVID-19) بر زنجیره تأمین طیور: مطالعه روش های ترکیبی-2021
The coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) has affected all supply chains through severe disruption of logistics activities, production, and markets. This study aimed to survey the impact of the coronavirus on the poultry supply chain using an exploratory sequential mixed design. We first addressed those stages of the poultry supply chain disrupted in an ongoing pandemic, and then elaborated particular disturbances associated with each stage. This study was based on data collected from Iranian poultry industry owners and experts who had sufficient experience in agricultural supply chains as well. As the qualitative phase, the content analysis was conducted to identify the impacts of the coronavirus on the poultry supply chain. The results and conclusions that emerged from the qualitative phase were refined and weighted by the Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM) and the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) respectively, in the quantitative phase. The results suggested that the pandemic has further affected the input supply as a stage in the poultry supply chain. This is probably because of the fact that the poultry industry is heavily dependent on inputs’ flow. In addition, supply chain governance was seriously impaired due to the persistence of the pandemic. The coronavirus pandemic has significantly affected the stages that are most reliant on transportation. Finally, we found that a part of the disruptions that occur in the downstream of the supply chain is due to the epidemic’s direct adverse effects, and another part is due to indirect consequences received from the upstream. Our findings and implications can be useful in decision-making procedures during ongoing epidemics.
Keywords: Poultry supply chain | Coronavirus (COVID-19) | Supply chain disruptions | Input supply
مقاله انگلیسی
4 Modelling of supply chain disruption analytics using an integrated approach: An emerging economy example
مدل سازی تجزیه و تحلیل اختلال در زنجیره تامین با استفاده از یک رویکرد یکپارچه: یک مثال اقتصاد در حال ظهور-2021
The purpose of this paper is to develop a framework to identify, analyze, and to assess supply chain disruption factors and drivers. Based on an empirical analysis, four disruption factor categories including natural, human- made, system accidents, and financials with a total of sixteen disruption drivers are identified and examined in a real-world industrial setting. This research utilizes an integrated approach comprising both the Delphi method and the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP). To test this integrated method, one of the well-known examples in industrial contexts of developing countries, the ready-made garment industry in Bangladesh is considered. To evaluate this industrial example, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to ensure the robustness and viability of the framework in practical settings. This study not only expands the literature scope of supply chain disruption risk assessment but through its application in any context or industry will reduce the impact of such disruptions and enhance the overall supply chain resilience. Consequently, these enhanced capabilities arm managers the ability to formulate relevant mitigation strategies that are robust and computationally efficient. These strategies will allow managers to take calculated decisions proactively. Finally, the results reveal that political and regulatory instability, cyclones, labor strikes, flooding, heavy rain, and factory fires are the top six disruption drivers causing disruptions to the ready-made garment industry in Bangladesh.
Keywords: Supply chain management | Disruption factors and drivers | Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process | Delphi method
مقاله انگلیسی
5 Qualitative and quantitative project risk assessment using a hybrid PMBOK model developed under uncertainty conditions
ارزیابی ریسک کمی و کیفی پروژه با استفاده از یک مدل توسعه یافته PMBOK تحت شرایط غیر قطعی-2020
This study presented a qualitative and quantitative project risk assessment using a hybrid PMBOK model developed under uncertainty conditions. Accordingly, an exploratory and applied research design was employed in this study. The research sample included 15 experienced staff working in main and related positions in Neyr Perse Company. After reviewing the literature and the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK), 32 risk factors were identified and their number reduced to 17 risks using the expert opinions via the fuzzy Delphi technique run through three stages. The results of the confirmatory factor analysis showed that all risks were confirmed by the members of the research sample. Then the identified risks were structured and ranked using fuzzy DEMATEL and fuzzy ANP techniques. The final results of the study showed that the political and economic sanctions had the highest weight followed by foreign investors’ attraction and the lack of regional infrastructure.
Keywords: Project risks | Project management body of knowledge (PMBOK) | Uncertainty | Mixed qualitative and quantitative risk assessment approach | Mathematics | Probability theory | Engineering | Industrial engineering | Business
مقاله انگلیسی
6 The race discipline gap: A cautionary note on archival measures of behavioral misconduct
شکاف در انضباط نژادی: یادداشت احتیاطی درباره اقدامات بایگانی سو رفتار-2020
Research on employee misconduct has increasingly adopted behavioral measures in field settings, such as archival organizational records, to circumvent potential issues of external validity and social desirability associated with laboratory experiments and self-reported surveys. However, similar to the issues facing the criminal justice and education systems, where racial disparities in punishment are well-documented, organizations face a difficult challenge in detecting and enforcing misconduct. Even when organizations adopt seemingly objective policies for addressing misconduct, it is still possible for certain groups to be disproportionately accused of misconduct and/or disciplined. Drawing from social psychological theories of social identity and aversive racism, we examined the extent to which Black employees (in contrast to White employees) are more likely to have formal incidences of misconduct documented in their employment records, even when there are no racial differences in the number of allegations of misconduct. Across three datasets collected from the police departments of three major metropolitan areas (Chicago, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia), we identified the presence of a race discipline gap in archival organizational records of behavioral misconduct. We discuss the implications of these findings and highlight the need for caution when researchers and practitioners use archival measures of behavioral misconduct.
Keywords: Race | Archival records | Behavioral misconduct | Counterproductive work behavior
مقاله انگلیسی
7 Reshaping competitive advantages with analytics capabilities in service systems
تغییر شکل مزایای رقابتی با قابلیت تجزیه و تحلیل در سیستم های خدماتی-2020
Big data analytics capability can reshape competitive advantages for a service system. However, little is known about how to develop and operationalize a service system analytics capability (SSAC) model. Drawing on the resource based view (RBV), dynamic capability theory (DCT) and the emerging literature on big data analytics, this study develops and validates an SSAC model and frames its impact on competitive advantages using a thematic analysis, delphi studies (n=35) and a survey (n=251) . The main findings illuminate the varying importance of three primary dimensions (i.e., service system analytics management capability, technology capability and personnel capability) and various respective sub dimensions (i.e., service system planning, in- vestment, coordination, control, connectivity, compatibility, modularity, technology management knowledge, technical knowledge, business knowledge and relationship knowledge) in developing overall analytics cap- abilities for a service system. The findings also confirm the strong mediating effects of three dynamic capabilities (i.e., market sensing, seizing and reconfiguring) in establishing competitive advantages. We critically discuss the implications of our findings for theory, methods and practice with limitations and future research directions.1.0.
Keywords: Big data | Service analytics capability | Dynamic capability | Competitive advantage
مقاله انگلیسی
8 Missed opportunities: Arrest and court touchpoints for individuals who fatally overdosed in Philadelphia in 2016
فرصت های از دست رفته: دستگیری و نقاط تماس دادگاه برای افرادی که در سال 2016 در فیلادلفیا بیش از حد دوز مصرف کرده بودند-2020
Background: Many studies document high risk of fatal overdose after incarceration. Few explore earlier touchpoints in criminal justice processes, like arrests and court hearings. Understanding these touchpoints is important for several reasons. Arrest and adjudicatory processes are harmful even when not resulting in incarceration. Arrests and criminal hearings also may reflect changes in overdose-related risk factors like transitions in employment and housing stability. Moreover, knowledge about these touchpoints contextualizes debate about the implementation of court-based programs like Drug Treatment Courts. This study described the incidence and accumulation of touchpoints for people who fatally overdosed in Philadelphia in 2016, and depicted how touchpoint incidence and characteristics interface with court-program eligibility. Methods: Criminal court documents were obtained for all individuals who fatally overdosed in Philadelphia in 2016 from the Philadelphia Medical Examiners Office. The characteristics of arrests and court hearings were abstracted to compile lifetime criminal histories. Latent class analysis was performed to identify whether these histories followed observably distinct patterns. Results: In 2016, 907 people fatally overdosed in Philadelphia. Of these, 605 had at least one or more of 3,926 arrests and 3,822 hearings over their lifetime. There were 488 arrests and 533 hearings in the two years before death, with public disorder charges especially common closer to death. Less than 20% of these hearings resulted in custodial sentences. Of individuals with touchpoints, only nine participated in Drug Treatment Court, consistent with findings that most individuals were ineligible. Latent class analysis suggested five distinguishable patterns in age, timing, and characteristics of touchpoints. Conclusions: The type and frequency of touchpoints preceding fatal overdose reflect a period of complex vulnerability. Few individuals qualified for court-based programming, underscoring the limitations of supporting this population in specialized court settings. Reducing incidence and improving the health impact of criminal justice touchpoints remain important public health priorities.
Keywords: Criminal justice | Opioid | Overdose death | Drug court | Latent class analysis
مقاله انگلیسی
9 Qualitative and quantitative project risk assessment using a hybrid PMBOK model developed under uncertainty conditions
ارزیابی کیفی و کمی ریسک پروژه با استفاده از یک مدل ترکیبی PMBOK که در شرایط عدم اطمینان ایجاد شده است-2020
This study presented a qualitative and quantitative project risk assessment using a hybrid PMBOK model developed under uncertainty conditions. Accordingly, an exploratory and applied research design was employed in this study. The research sample included 15 experienced staff working in main and related positions in Neyr Perse Company. After reviewing the literature and the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK), 32 risk factors were identified and their number reduced to 17 risks using the expert opinions via the fuzzy Delphi technique run through three stages. The results of the confirmatory factor analysis showed that all risks were confirmed by the members of the research sample. Then the identified risks were structured and ranked using fuzzy DEMATEL and fuzzy ANP techniques. The final results of the study showed that the political and economic sanctions had the highest weight followed by foreign investors’ attraction and the lack of regional infrastructure.
Keywords: Project risks | Project management body of knowledge(PMBOK) | Uncertainty | Mixed qualitative and quantitative risk | assessment approach | Mathematics | Probability theory | Engineering | Industrial engineering | Business
مقاله انگلیسی
10 Customized risk assessment in military shipbuilding
ارزیابی ریسک سفارشی در کشتی سازی ارتش-2020
This paper describes a customized risk assessment framework to be applied in military shipbuilding projects. The framework incorporates the Delphi method with visual diagrams, Bayesian Networks (BN) and the expression of expert opinions through linguistic variables. Noisy-OR and Leak Canonical models are used to determine the conditional probabilities of the BN model. The approach can easily be adapted for other shipbuilding construction projects. The visual diagrams that support the Delphi questionnaire favor the comprehensive visualization of the interdependencies between risks, causes, risks and causes, and risks and effects. The applicability of the framework is illustrated through the assessment of risk of two real military shipbuilding projects. This assessment includes a sensitivity analysis that is useful to prioritize mitigation actions. In the two cases studies, the risks with higher probability of occurrence were failures or errors in production, of the contracted, in the requirements, and in planning. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that a set of mitigation actions directed at relatively easily controllable causes would have achieved important reductions in risk probabilities
Keywords: Project management | Shipbuilding projects | Risk network model | Delph | iBayesian network
مقاله انگلیسی
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