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نتیجه جستجو - Delphi method

تعداد مقالات یافته شده: 11
ردیف عنوان نوع
1 چالش‌های احیای زنجیره‌ی تأمین در پی همه‌گیری کووید-19
سال انتشار: 2021 - تعداد صفحات فایل pdf انگلیسی: 14 - تعداد صفحات فایل doc فارسی: 46
همه‌گیری کرونا شکننده بودن زنجیره‌های تأمین جهانی در اثر کمبود مواد اولیه، اختلال در تولید و حمل و نقل، و فاصله‎گذاری اجتماعی را آشکار نمود. بایستی شرکت‌ها به دقت مشکلات مرتبط با احیا را پیش‌بینی نموده و راهبردهای مناسبی را برای اطمینان از بقای زنجیره‌های تأمین و کسب و کارهای خود تدوین نمایند. برای افزایش آگاهی از این مسائل، هدف پژوهش پیش رو، شناسایی و مدلسازی چالش‌های احیا در بستر صنعت پوشاک "دوخته‌فروش" بنگلادش است. روش آزمایش و آزمایشگاه ارزیابی و آزمون تصمیم‌گیری خاکستری مبتنی بر دلفی (DEMATEL) برای تحلیل داده‌ها استفاده شد. درحالیکه روش دلفی به شناسایی چالش‌های اصلی احیای زنجیره‌ی تأمین ناشی از تأثیرات همه‌گیری کووید-19 کمک می‌کند، رویکرد DEMATEL خاکستری به دسته‌بندی روابط علّی میان این چالش‌های کمک خواهد کرد. از بین 23 چالش احیای نهایی، 12 مورد، چالش‌های علّی هستند. یافته‌های این پژوهش می‌تواند به تصمیم‌گیرندگان در توسعه‌ی سیاست‌های راهبردی برای غلبه بر چالش‌های احیای در دوران پساکرونا کمک کند.
کلیدواژه ها: همه‌گیری کووید-19 | مدیریت زنجیره‎‌ی تأمین | چالش‌های احیا | روش دلفی | DEMATEL خاکستری.
مقاله ترجمه شده
2 Surveying the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) on the poultry supply chain: A mixed methods study
بررسی تأثیر ویروس کرونا (COVID-19) بر زنجیره تأمین طیور: مطالعه روش های ترکیبی-2021
The coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) has affected all supply chains through severe disruption of logistics activities, production, and markets. This study aimed to survey the impact of the coronavirus on the poultry supply chain using an exploratory sequential mixed design. We first addressed those stages of the poultry supply chain disrupted in an ongoing pandemic, and then elaborated particular disturbances associated with each stage. This study was based on data collected from Iranian poultry industry owners and experts who had sufficient experience in agricultural supply chains as well. As the qualitative phase, the content analysis was conducted to identify the impacts of the coronavirus on the poultry supply chain. The results and conclusions that emerged from the qualitative phase were refined and weighted by the Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM) and the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) respectively, in the quantitative phase. The results suggested that the pandemic has further affected the input supply as a stage in the poultry supply chain. This is probably because of the fact that the poultry industry is heavily dependent on inputs’ flow. In addition, supply chain governance was seriously impaired due to the persistence of the pandemic. The coronavirus pandemic has significantly affected the stages that are most reliant on transportation. Finally, we found that a part of the disruptions that occur in the downstream of the supply chain is due to the epidemic’s direct adverse effects, and another part is due to indirect consequences received from the upstream. Our findings and implications can be useful in decision-making procedures during ongoing epidemics.
Keywords: Poultry supply chain | Coronavirus (COVID-19) | Supply chain disruptions | Input supply
مقاله انگلیسی
3 Modelling of supply chain disruption analytics using an integrated approach: An emerging economy example
مدل سازی تجزیه و تحلیل اختلال در زنجیره تامین با استفاده از یک رویکرد یکپارچه: یک مثال اقتصاد در حال ظهور-2021
The purpose of this paper is to develop a framework to identify, analyze, and to assess supply chain disruption factors and drivers. Based on an empirical analysis, four disruption factor categories including natural, human- made, system accidents, and financials with a total of sixteen disruption drivers are identified and examined in a real-world industrial setting. This research utilizes an integrated approach comprising both the Delphi method and the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP). To test this integrated method, one of the well-known examples in industrial contexts of developing countries, the ready-made garment industry in Bangladesh is considered. To evaluate this industrial example, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to ensure the robustness and viability of the framework in practical settings. This study not only expands the literature scope of supply chain disruption risk assessment but through its application in any context or industry will reduce the impact of such disruptions and enhance the overall supply chain resilience. Consequently, these enhanced capabilities arm managers the ability to formulate relevant mitigation strategies that are robust and computationally efficient. These strategies will allow managers to take calculated decisions proactively. Finally, the results reveal that political and regulatory instability, cyclones, labor strikes, flooding, heavy rain, and factory fires are the top six disruption drivers causing disruptions to the ready-made garment industry in Bangladesh.
Keywords: Supply chain management | Disruption factors and drivers | Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process | Delphi method
مقاله انگلیسی
4 Customized risk assessment in military shipbuilding
ارزیابی ریسک سفارشی در کشتی سازی ارتش-2020
This paper describes a customized risk assessment framework to be applied in military shipbuilding projects. The framework incorporates the Delphi method with visual diagrams, Bayesian Networks (BN) and the expression of expert opinions through linguistic variables. Noisy-OR and Leak Canonical models are used to determine the conditional probabilities of the BN model. The approach can easily be adapted for other shipbuilding construction projects. The visual diagrams that support the Delphi questionnaire favor the comprehensive visualization of the interdependencies between risks, causes, risks and causes, and risks and effects. The applicability of the framework is illustrated through the assessment of risk of two real military shipbuilding projects. This assessment includes a sensitivity analysis that is useful to prioritize mitigation actions. In the two cases studies, the risks with higher probability of occurrence were failures or errors in production, of the contracted, in the requirements, and in planning. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that a set of mitigation actions directed at relatively easily controllable causes would have achieved important reductions in risk probabilities
Keywords: Project management | Shipbuilding projects | Risk network model | Delph | iBayesian network
مقاله انگلیسی
5 Resilience assessment of safety system at subway construction sites applying analytic network process and extension cloud models
ارزیابی مقاومت سیستم ایمنی در اماکن ساخت مترو با استفاده از فرآیند شبکه تحلیلی و مدل های ابر توسعه -2020
This paper applies resilience theory in safety management to three subway construction sites: 5 the Shuangzhai, the Sports Centre and the Sanyizhuang stations on the Xian Metro Line 14. 6 It analyses the resilience connotation and evaluates the system resilience using the resilience 7 index. The Delphi method determined the resilience indices. The ANP extension cloud 8 synthesis was constructed combining the cloud and matter-element extension theories to 9 address the randomness and ambiguity of the resilience assessment process for subway 10 construction sites. This study reveals that the resilience level was consistent with actual 11 engineering project assessment at all stations. The resilience assessment of the Shuangzhai 12 Station project ranks first followed by that of Sanyizhuang and then the Sports Centre station. 13 The findings of this study argue for strengthening the resilience management, taking 14 measures to optimise and improve the security system, enhancing the defence ability and 15 anti-risk mechanism at the construction sites of the sports centre and the Sanyizhuang 16 stations.
Key Words: subway construction | safety system | resilience | ANP | extension cloud model
مقاله انگلیسی
6 A novel approach for occupational health and safety and environment risk assessment for nuclear power plant construction project
یک رویکرد جدید برای بهداشت و ایمنی شغلی و ارزیابی خطر محیط زیست برای پروژه ساخت نیروگاه هسته ای-2020
Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) construction project is a mega one with high level of occupational health and safety and environment (OHSE) risks, and it is necessary to propose an approach for the OHSE risk assessment so as to prevent the OHSE accidents or reduce their outcomes. However, there has not been such an approach due to the high uncertainty and complexity of NPP construction project. Therefore, this paper proposed a novel approach for the OHSE risk assessment which includes systematically identifying the OHSE risks by using brainstorming method, establishing an OHSE risk assessment index system by using Delphi method, and formulating a mathematical model by combining set pair analysis (SPA), trapezoidal fuzzy number (TPFN), and set-valued statistics (SVS) methods for determining the overall OHSE risk level for NPP construction project. The approach was used to assess the OHSE risks for the NPP construction project in East China, and its overall OHSE risk level was assessed at level 2 (low OHSE risk level). In addition, the problems in the OHSE risk management were found, and the corresponding OHSE risk treatments for these problems were implemented. The results showed that the approach helped reduce the OHSE risk level and protect the workers occupational health and safety and the environment while the NPP construction project was under construction
Keywords: Nuclear power plant construction project | Occupational health and safety and | environment | Risk assessment | Mathematical model
مقاله انگلیسی
7 Identifying sustainable rural entrepreneurship indicators in the Iranian context
شناسایی شاخص های کارآفرینی پایدار روستایی در بافت ایرانی-2020
Sustainable entrepreneurship is a strategy for development, growth, and prosperity that has received the attention of researchers, especially in the fields of economic development and rural businesses. The present study aims to identify the sustainable entrepreneurship indicators in Iranian rural businesses using the Fuzzy Delphi method. The results derived from three phases of the Delphi technique intro- duced 87 indicators for sustainable entrepreneurship. However, considering the threshold, just 69 indicators were approved by the experts. In the sociocultural dimension, scholars pay special attention to the promotion of social trust and social altruism and empathy among the local people. In the economic dimension, indicators such as utilization of facilities, cost management of products and services for business stability, and market management had higher averages. Finally, major indicators of the ethical dimension include financial business transparency, ethics in using biological resources, and managing human resources. In general, the obtained results highlight the importance of determining the stability of indicators in rural entrepreneurship and the necessity of managers’ and politicians’ attention toward this sector.© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Sustainable entrepreneurship | Sustainability | Rural business | Rural empowerment | Fuzzy delphi method
مقاله انگلیسی
8 The future and social impact of Big Data Analytics in Supply Chain Management: Results from a Delphi study
تاثیر آتی و اجتماعی تجزیه و تحلیل داده های بزرگ در مدیریت زنجیره تامین: نتایج یک مطالعه دلفی-2018
The continuously growing amount of available data has accelerated the emergence of numerous business in telligence applications that are summarized under the term Big Data Analytics (BDA). BDA is especially relevant to the domain of Supply Chain Management (SCM) as it provides the tools to support decision-making in in creasingly global, volatile and dynamic value networks. However, its application challenges traditional in stitutional arrangements as well as roles that are related to the management of data. The underlying empirical study addresses this challenge with the application of a multi-method approach that is embedded in Organizational Information Processing Theory (OIPT). A Delphi survey was conducted to integrate expert as sessments of projections up to the year 2035 and fuzzy c-means clustering was applied to identify future sce narios that span the future of BDA in SCM. The study suggests that BDA will improve demand forecasts, reduce safety stocks and improve the management of supplier performance. However, supply chain (SC) processes will become increasingly automated and traditional tasks of SCM will be partially substituted as a result. Consequently, the transition of the traditional role of SCM within organizations will increase the importance of human intuition, trust and strategic decision-making.
Keywords: Big Data Analytics ، Supply Chain Management ، Organizational Information Processing Theory ،Delphi method ، Fuzzy logic
مقاله انگلیسی
9 A novel approach for enhancing green supply chain management using converged interval-valued triangular fuzzy numbers-grey relation analysis
یک رویکرد جدید برای افزایش مدیریت زنجیره تامین سبز با استفاده از تجزیه و تحلیل رابطه فازی مثلثی مثلثی سه بعدی همگرا شده-2017
The existing literatures are lacking on the cost and benefit concerns, screening the measures and conver gence of interval-valued triangular fuzzy numbers-grey relation analysis (IVTFN-GRA) weight together. Nonetheless, Green supply chain management is always suffering the linguistic preferences and system incomplete information in evaluation process to enhance the performance. Yet, those previous stud ies are merely based on un-converged weight results. Hence, this study proposed a hybrid method to dealing with this multi-criteria evaluation problem. Fuzzy Delphi method proposes to screen the evalu ation criteria and converged IVTFN-GRA weight method handles the vagueness system uncertainty and incomplete information with interdependence relations. Hence, the proposed hybrid method enhanced the green supply chain management and compared multi-methods to enhance their performance in Taiwanese electronic focal firm. The result showed that the converged weight is consistent with the real practices, despite the differences with the current average weighting method. The finding in the long-term perspective: resilience and operational improvement are the top weighted aspects.
Keywords: Converged interval-valued triangular fuzzy | numbers-grey relation analysis |Green supply chain management
مقاله انگلیسی
10 Toward sustainability: using big data to explore the decisive attributes of supply chain risks and uncertainties
به سوی پایداری: استفاده از داده های بزرگ برای بررسی ویژگی های قاطع خطرات زنجیره تامین و عدم اطمینان-2017
Rapid market changes aimed at sustainability have led to supply chain risks and uncertainties in the Taiwanese light-emitting diode industry. These risks and uncertainties can be captured by social media, quantitative and qualitative data (referred to herein as big data), but the industry has been unable to manage this information boom to respond to customer needs. These various types of data have their own characteristics that affect decision making about developing firm capabilities. This study aggregates the various data to undertake an extensive investigation of supply chain risks and uncertainties. Specifically, this study proposes using the fuzzy and grey Delphi methods to identify a set of reliable attributes and, based on these attributes, transforming big data to a manageable scale to consider their impacts. Subsequently, both the fuzzy and grey Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratories applied to determine the causal relationships for supply chain risks and uncertainties. The results reveal that capacity and operations have greater influence than other supply chain attributes and that risks stemming from triggering events are difficult to diagnose and control. The implications, conclusions and findings are addressed.
Keywords Big data | Supply chain risks and uncertainties |Sustainability indicators |Decision Making Trial and Evaluation |Laboratory (DEMATEL) |Delphi |method
مقاله انگلیسی
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