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Aggregate accounting research and development expenditures and the prediction of real gross domestic product
مجموع هزینه های تحقیق و توسعه حسابداری جمع آوری شده و پیش بینی تولید ناخالص داخلی واقعی-2021 The role of accounting information for public policy making has received increased
attention in recent years. Konchitchki and Patatoukas (2014a,b) demonstrate that growth
in aggregate accounting earnings can predict future growth in nominal and real Gross
Domestic Product (GDP). We extend the micro to macro literature by decomposing earnings
into the R&D and pre-R&D components. Using the Almon (1965) finite distributed lag
model, we find that both components can predict future real GDP growth with different
lead-lag structures. Importantly, this decomposition significantly increases the explanatory
power of the predictive model using accounting information. Aggregate accounting R&D can
predict real GDP through the personal consumption, business investment, and net export
channels of GDP. Our study extends prior research on the forecasting usefulness of accounting information at the aggregate level and has practical implications for macro forecasting
and for public policy making regarding innovative activities of publicly listed firms.
keywords: مجموع اعداد حسابداری | هزینه های تحقیق و توسعه | تولید ناخالص داخلی | پیش بینی کلان اقتصادی | ساختارهای تاخیری توزیع شده | Aggregate accounting numbers | Research and development expenditures | Gross domestic product | Macroeconomic forecasting | Distributed lag structures |
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