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Research on Chinas energy supply and demand using an improved Grey-Markov chain model based on wavelet transform
تحقیق در مورد عرضه و تقاضای انرژی در چین با استفاده از مدل بهبود زنجیره ای گریم مارکوف بر مبنای تبدیل موجک-2017 Energy is an essential foundation for the economic growth and social development of a country. Since the
reform and opening up, the economy in China has been in a state of rapid development and the paradox
of the energy supply-demand has become increasingly prominent. An improved Grey-Markov chain
model based on the wavelet transform is presented in this paper which takes various energy forms into
account. The model uses the discrete wavelet transform for denoising, substitutes the extended grey
model to the traditional one and introduces the fuzzy theory and metabolic principle into the Markov
chain. Then an empirical example of Chinas energy production and consumption data during the period
of 1990e2014 were selected as the research objects. Comparing with other methods, the proposed model
was proved feasible and valid, and the energy production and consumption situation from 2015 to 2020
was predicted. Besides, the trend of energy supply and demand gap was analyzed as well as the energy
structure which utilized the Shannon Wiener index. The results show that in the foreseeable future, the
energy supply and demand gap in China will narrow and the energy structure tends to be diversified.
Finally some opinions and suggestions are put forward.
Keywords: Energy supply and demand | Wavelet transform | Extended grey model | Improved Markov chain |Shannon Wiener index |Energy structure |
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