Persistent current account imbalances: Are they good or bad for regional and global growth?
عدم تعادل حساب جاری مداوم: آیا آنها برای رشد منطقه ای و جهانی خوب یا بد هستند؟-2021
This paper examines the regional and global growth effects of current account imbalances in Japan, Germany, and the People’s Republic of China (PRC)—the three largest persistent surplus countries—and the United States and United Kingdom, the two largest persistent deficit countries. Controlling for a set of macroeconomic determinants, we use a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework to show that positive shocks to current account balances in the PRC, Germany, and Japan transmit positive regional and global growth effects, particularly in the case of spillovers to regional growth from Japan. As expected, the global growth response is lower in magnitude than the regional growth response. In addition, the extent of the effect is amplified by global value chains, pointing to the significant role played by trade in intermediate goods. For current account deficit countries, the magnitudes of the responses of growth to shocks are much lower on average than in the case of current account surplus countries. We find some marginal positive effects on regional and global growth emanating from a positive shock on the UK current account—i.e., a reduction in the deficit. For the US, a positive shock to its persistent current account deficit marginally drags on global growth, possibly reflecting declining import demand and wealth effects linked to the US dollar’s status as the global reserve currency. Our findings have important policy implications, particularly in light of discussions in recent years on whether current account surplus countries are hindering growth abroad.
keywords: عدم تعادل حساب جاری | عدم تعادل اقتصاد کلان | رشد اقتصادی | Current account imbalances | Macroeconomic imbalances | Economic growth
A Requiem for ‘‘Blame It on Beijing” interpreting rotating global current account surpluses
مرثیه ای برای «سرزنش آن به گردن پکن» که در حال تفسیر جهانی در حال چرخش است مازاد حساب جاری-2021
Global current account imbalances have reappeared, although the extent and distribution of these imbalances are noticeably different from those experienced in the middle of the last decade. What does that recurrence mean for our understanding of the origin and nature of such imbalances? Will imbalances persist over time? Informed by empirical estimates of the determinants of current account imbalances encompassing the period after the global recession, we find that – as before – the observable manifestations of the factors driving the global saving glut have limited explanatory power for the time series variation in imbalances. Fiscal factors determine imbalances, and have accounted for a noticeable share of the recent variation in imbalances, including in the U.S. and Germany. For advanced economies, the financial component of the current account has been playing an increasing role in determining the movements of the account. Examining observable policy actions, it is clear that net official flows have been associated with some share of imbalances, although tracing out the motivations for intervention is difficult. Looking forward, it is clear that policy can influence global imbalances, although some component of the U.S. deficit will likely remain given the U.S. role in generating safe assets.
keywords: تعادل حساب جاری | دارایی های خارجی خالص | صرفه جویی | مروریسم | محافظت از خود | دارایی های ایمن | fi flows | Current account balance | Net foreign assets | Saving glut | Mercantilism | Self-protection | Safe assets | Ofﬁcial ﬂows
The corporate saving glut and the current account in Germany
GLUT صرفه جویی در شرکت و حساب جاری در آلمان-2021
We investigate, in the case of Germany, the positive correlation between the cyclical components of the corporate saving glut in the non-financial corporate sector and the current account surplus from a capital account perspective. Employing sign restrictions, our findings suggest that mostly labor supply, world demand and financial friction shocks account for the joint dynamics of excess corporate saving and the current account surplus. Household saving shocks, by contrast, cannot explain the correlation. We conclude that, explained through these factors, the corporate saving glut is an important driver of the cyclical component of the current account.
keywords: حساب جاری | صرفه جویی در شرکت | شوک های ماکرو | Current account | Corporate saving | Macro shocks
Mothering in accounting: Feminism, motherhood, and making partnership in accountancy in Germany and the UK
مادران در حسابداری: فمینیسم، مادران، و مشارکت در حسابداری در آلمان و انگلستان-2021
Women remain significantly underrepresented at partnership level in accounting firms. The past three decades witnessed a steady increase in investment and research in gender equality in the profession, but there is a scholarly reluctance to focus specifically on motherhood despite the fact that four in five women will have children in their lifetime and experience inequality and discrimination as a result of their status as mothers. This article shares original empirical data of interviews with 60 female partners in Germany and the UK, focusing specifically on their experiences of motherhood and mothering. Theoretically, this article is framed by O’Reilly’s (2016a) matricentric feminism and Gatrell, Cooper and Kossek’s (2017) Douglasian thesis of the maternal body as a social pollutant at work. In Germany, the accounts frequently juxtaposed the maternal body with professionalism, with mothers expected to work part-time, but part-time working patterns deemed irreconcilable with partnership. Becoming a mother was often experienced as representing a burden to others at work. In the UK, the respondents were concerned with accessing maternity leave and returning to work, with some finding it challenging to make claims on the basis of their status as mothers. Half of the mothers were married to ‘househusbands’, often working like normative fathers, with some noting a lack of ‘choice’ in the matter despite their status and financial independence. In both countries, the unencumbered norm was mostly left unchallenged and the task of managing and hiding one’s care responsibilities left for individual women to work out in private, with the primary beneficiary of this concealment being the firm and its clients. The article demonstrates that we must make space for the study of mothering in accountancy if we want to be serious about tackling gender inequality within the profession.
keywords:جنسیت | مادری | فمینیسم ماتریکس | مشارکت | نئولیبرالیسم | آلمان | Gender | Motherhood | Matricentric feminism | Partnership | Neoliberalism | Germany
Informed conservation management of rare tree species needs knowledge of species composition, their genetic characteristics and ecological niche
مدیریت حفاظت از حفاظت از گونه های نادر درختی، نیاز به دانش ترکیب گونه ها، ویژگی های ژنتیکی آنها و طاقچه های زیست محیطی -2021
Woodland nature reserves must be scientifically assessed so that subsequent management leads to optimal conservation of biodiversity. This entails knowledge of the species composition, the genetics of the local pop- ulations and their ecology. Here we assess Tilia species in the Bavarian Forest National Park (BFNP), a large mixed coniferous and deciduous forest in South-Eastern Germany. Tilia occurs here at low density, as in many other mixed forests in Central and Northern Europe. Therefore, results are not only relevant to BFNP but also to other areas. Exhaustive sampling resulted in the collection of 113 mature trees that were genotyped using 20 microsatellite markers, derived from both T. cordata and T. platyphyllos. For the first time, size and aspect of trees, and their community association were contrasted between the species. Genotyping confirmed that T. platyphyllos, T. cordata and their hybrid (T. x europaea) were present in the BFNP and both species deserve conservation. T. platyphyllos has a higher genetic diversity for both sets of markers than T. cordata, confirming earlier work. Both species showed genetic diversity comparable to other populations in Central Europe, which is likely to be sufficient for the maintenance of the species in the short term. However, increasing the number of trees, ensuring local sources are used, and gene flow from surrounding forests over the next decennia may be crucial for long- term survival. Further, within the T. platyphyllos group there was a set of 11 trees that were distinct from the others: they had a lower genetic diversity and were shorter. We hypothesise that these were planted and should not be used for propagation and augmentation. Most saplings analysed appeared to derive from asexual propagation (36 out of 41), although a few (five out of 41) were novel genotypes. This means that, currently, there is some, but rather limited, regeneration. T. cordata was found at a lower altitude and less steep terrain than T. platyphyllos and the hybrid. The hybrid was taller than the two species, while the diameter at breast height was smallest in T. cordata. T. cordata shows a preference for mixed and coniferous forests, while T. platyphyllos occurs mostly in deciduous forests. Our results indicate that biodiversity at the species and genetic level as well as species’ ecology have to be considered in order to guide informed conservation management. These results form the basis to recommend conservation management improving the long-term viability of Tilia in the BFNP and other mixed forests.
keywords: جنگلداری | تیلیا | تنوع ژنتیکی | ترجیح زیستگاه | مناطق حفاظت شده | هیبریداسیون | جنگلکاری | Forestry | Tilia | Genetic diversity | Habitat preference | Protected areas | Hybridisation | Silviculture
Identification and differentiation of commercial and military explosives via high performance liquid chromatography – high resolution mass spectrometry (HPLC-HRMS), X-ray diffractometry (XRD) and X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy (XRF): Towards a forensic substance database on explosives
شناسایی و تمایز مواد منفجره تجاری و نظامی از طریق کروماتوگرافی مایع با کارایی بالا - طیف سنجی جرمی با وضوح بالا (HPLC-HRMS) ، پراش سنجی اشعه ایکس (XRD) و طیف سنجی فلورسانس اشعه ایکس (XRF): به سمت پایگاه داده مواد پزشکی قانونی در مورد مواد منفجره-2020
The identification of confiscated commercial and military explosives is a crucial step not only in the uncovering of distribution pathways, but it also aids investigating officers in criminal casework. Even though commercial and military explosives mainly rely on a small number of high-energy compounds, a great variety of additives and synthesis by-products can be found that can differ depending on the brand, manufacturer and application. This makes the identification of commercial and military explosives based on their overall composition a promising approach that can be used to establish a pan-European Forensic Substance Database on Explosives. In this work, three analytical techniques were employed to analyze 36 samples of commercial and military explosives from Germany and Switzerland. An HPLC-HRMS method was developed, using 27 analytes of interest that encompass high-energy compounds, synthesis by-products and additives. HPLCHRMS and XRD were used to gather and confirm molecular information on each sample and XRF analyses were carried out to gain insight on the elemental composition. Combining the results from all three techniques, 41 different additives could be identified as being diagnostic analytes and all samples showed a unique analytical fingerprint, which allows for a differentiation of the samples. Therefore, this work presents a set of methods that can be used as a foundation for the creation and population of a database on explosives that enables the assigning of specific formulations to certain brands, manufacturers and countries of origin.
Keywords: HPLC-HRMS | Powder XRD | XRF | Explosives | Commercial explosives | Military explosives
Death abroad: Medico-legal autopsy results of repatriated corpses A retrospective analysis of cases at the Department of Legal Medicine in Frankfurt am Main
مرگ در خارج از کشور: نتایج کالبد شکافی پزشکی قانونی اجساد برگشت یافته یک تجزیه و تحلیل گذشته نگر از پرونده ها در بخش پزشکی قانونی در فرانکفورت-2020
Introduction: Repatriated corpses may have been autopsied abroad. The aim of the study was to compare the findings from second medico-legal autopsies with those from primary autopsies abroad to spotlight possible implications for the management of repatriated corpses. Material and Methods: All autopsies from a 20-year period at the Institute of Legal Medicine in Frankfurt am Main on repatriated corpses of German citizens were reviewed. The results were compared with the information from the body passports, the protocols of the autopsies in the country of death, and the police files. Results: In total, 151 corpses repatriated from 56 different countries were autopsied. The interval between death and autopsy in Germany was 2–603 days (median: 11 days). 91 of the repatriated corpses (59.5%) had previously been autopsied abroad. Three body cavities had been opened in 78.0% (71/91) of the original autopsies; among them, there were 11 cases (15.5%) with dissection of all organs, as opposed to 7 cases (9.9%) with all organs intact and in situ. Of the previously autopsied corpses, 62.6% were accompanied by a body passport that noted the cause of death. In nearly 75% of these cases, the stated cause of death was compatible with that established at second autopsy. In 5 cases (10.2%), the cause of death established in the second autopsy disagreed with that on the body passport. The most prominent disparity was a cranial gunshot wound rather than the stated fatal fall. Discussion: This analysis of individual cases spotlights the problematics of an uncritical approval of the body passport. In light of the different procedural autopsy standards around the world, the validity of an autopsy abroad is discussed in the context of the second autopsy results. Conclusion: A second external postmortem examination by qualified medical practitioners should be obligatory in all cases of repatriated corpses, with notification of the criminal police in all cases of nonnatural or undetermined death. A timely second autopsy is recommended even in cases with previous autopsy abroad.
Keywords: Transfer of mortal remains | Body passport | Repatriation | Embalmed | Second autopsy | Vienna Convention
The association of the availability of offline gay scenes and national tolerance of homosexuality with gay and bisexual men’s sexual online dating behavior
ارتباط در دسترس بودن صحنه های آفلاین همجنسگرایان و تحمل ملی همجنسگرایی با رفتار دوستیابی آنلاین جنسی مردان همجنسگرا و دوجنسگرایان-2020
Based on a uses and gratifications perspective on media use, in this paper I analyze the important role played by dating sites for men who have sex with men (MSM) in their efforts to find offline sexual partners. To do so, I conducted two quantitative surveys. In Study 1, I compared the online dating behavior of 12,328 MSM from Germany and Austria with the availability of offline sexual gay venues and how frequently MSM visit such venues. In Study 2, I used a global sample of 30,789 MSM to compare the frequency and recency of online dates of men living in countries that support male homosexuality and those in countries that criminalize it. The findings suggest that MSM-specific dating sites can serve as a substitute for offline sexual gay venues: The recency of online dates is slightly higher in rural areas and in countries that criminalize male homosexuality. However, meeting men through dating sites is the main method used by MSM to recruit sexual partners even among those who live in cities where offline sexual venues are available and who visit them on a regular basis. The findings are discussed with respect to potential further gratifications delivered by computer-mediated communication, particularly the opportunity to verbalize and negotiate upcoming sexual encounters.
Keywords: Online dating | Dating sites | Men who have sex with men | Sexuality | Gay men | Uses and gratifications | Cross-cultural comparison
Text mining of industry 4:0 job advertisements
استخراج متن آگهی های شغلی صنعت 4:0-2020
Since changes in job characteristics in areas such as Industry 4.0 are rapid, fast tool for analysis of job advertisements is needed. Current knowledge about competencies required in Industry 4.0 is scarce. The goal of this paper is to develop a profile of Industry 4.0 job advertisements, using text mining on publicly available job advertisements, which are often used as a channel for collecting relevant information about the required knowledge and skills in rapid-changing industries. We searched website, which publishes job advertisements, related to Industry 4.0, and performed text mining analysis on the data collected from those job advertisements. Analysis of the job advertisements revealed that most of them were for full time entry; associate and mid-senior level management positions and mainly came from the United States and Germany. Text mining analysis resulted in two groups of job profiles. The first group of job profiles was focused solely on the knowledge related to Industry 4.0: cyberphysical systems and the Internet of things for robotized production; and smart production design and production control. The second group of job profiles was focused on more general knowledge areas, which are adapted to Industry 4.0: supply change management, customer satisfaction, and enterprise software. Topic mining was conducted on the extracted phrases generating various multidisciplinary job profiles. Higher educational institutions, human resources professionals, as well as experts that are already employed or aspire to be employed in Industry 4.0 organizations, would benefit from the results of our analysis.
Keywords: Human resource management | Text mining | Job profiles | Big data analytics | Industry 4.0 | Education | Smart factory
EU intermediary regulation and its impact on insurance agent quality: Evidence from Germany
مقررات واسط اتحادیه اروپا و تأثیر آن بر کیفیت نماینده بیمه: شواهدی از آلمان-2020
Implementation of the EU Directive on Insurance Mediation (2002/92/EG) created the first professional licensing requirements for insurance agents in Germany. This study uses data on property-liability insurance policies from a German insurer encompassing the years just before and just after the Directive, to provide evidence of the impact of licensing on insurance intermediation quality. Because many agents left the market once licensing was required, we compare the pre-Directive quality of agents who exit the market with those who remain, and the pre- versus post-Directive quality of agents who remain in the market. Estimation results show no significant effects of licensing on agent quality, either through exit of low-quality agents or through changes in post-Directive quality. Results are most consistent with an increase in consumer search activity after the enactment of licensing.
Keywords: Business regulation | Financial intermediaries | Insurance agents | Occupational licensing | EU directives