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Weather Shocks, Poverty and Crime in 18th-Century Savoy
شوکهای آب و هوا ، فقر و جرم و جنایت در قرن 18-2020 Did weather shocks increase interpersonal conflict in early modern Europe? I address
this question by exploiting year-to-year seasonal variations in temperature and detailed
crime data assembled from Savoyard criminal procedures over the period 1749–92. I find
that temperature shocks had a positive and significant effect on the level of property crimes,
but a negative and significant effect on violent crimes. I further document how seasonal
migration helped to increase the coping capacity of local communities. Indeed, migrant
labour both brought in remittances that supplemented communities’ resources, as well as
temporarily relieved impoverished households of the burden of feeding these workers. I
show that while temperature shocks were strongly associated with an increase in property
crime rates, the effect was much lower in provinces with high levels of seasonal migration.
I provide historical evidence demonstrating that the inflow of remittances may have driven
this relationship. Keywords: Weather shocks | Migration | Crime | Grain prices | Savoy | 18th century |
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