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نتیجه جستجو - Inflation uncertainty

تعداد مقالات یافته شده: 1
ردیف عنوان نوع
1 Nominal uncertainty, real uncertainty and macroeconomic performance in a time-varying asymmetric framework_ Implications for monetary policy
عدم اطمینان اسمی ، عدم اطمینان واقعی و عملکرد اقتصادی کلان در یک چارچوب نامتقارن متغیر زمان- پیامدهای سیاست پولی-2017
This study examines the dynamic causal links and volatility spillovers of inflation, output growth and their uncertainties in four South Asian countries, namely, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka by utilizing asymmetric GARCH family models. Our empirical evidence supports a number of important conclusions. There is an overwhelming support for Friedman-Ball hypothesis of positive inflation-uncertainty trade-off for all countries excluding India and Sri Lanka. The Cukierman-Meltzer’s idea that inflation uncertainty generates inflation, hold for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka only and the Holland’s hypothesis of negative influence of inflation uncertainty on level inflation is supported by India only. The positive influence of output uncertainty on inflation (Devereux (1989) hypothesis) is supported by all countries excluding Bangladesh while nominal uncertainty (real uncertainty) has negative (positive) effect on output growth in Pakistan (Bangladesh). Output growth is reducing real uncertainty in all countries excluding Sri Lanka and nominal uncertainty in Pakistan only. There is significant negative relationship between inflation and output growth for Pakistan only while real uncertainty is positively (negatively) related with nominal uncertainty in India (Bangladesh). The estimated results are almost robust with the simultaneous estimation procedure for testing the main hypotheses. In general, there is asym metric effect and persistence of the GARCH parameters for all countries. The study suggests that the concerned central banks should pay more attention to the effects of macroeconomic un certainty and should focus their monetary policy strategy on stabilizing both output growth and inflation.
Keywords: Inflation | Output growth | Inflation uncertainty | Output uncertainty | South Asia
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بازدید امروز: 1755 :::::::: بازدید دیروز: 0 :::::::: بازدید کل: 1755 :::::::: افراد آنلاین: 47