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Sustainable groundwater management in arid regions considering climate change impacts in Moghra region, Egypt
مدیریت پایدار آبهای زیرزمینی در مناطق خشک با توجه به تأثیر تغییرات آب و هوایی در منطقه مقرا ، مصر-2020 Egypt is one of the most water-scarce countries of the Middle East and North Africa region and is highly
vulnerable to climatic changes. In the Egyptian deserts, new land reclamation projects depend mainly on
groundwater as the main source of water. Also, solar energy is the most promising renewable source of energy for
pumping and transport of water. Moghra region is one of the well-known “1.5 Million Acres Reclamation Projects”
areas in the Western Desert. In this paper, a groundwater model was constructed and used to investigate
the sustainable groundwater management scenarios in Moghra region taking into consideration impacts of the
expected climate changes. Using MODFLOW/GMS software, Moghra model was prepared and calibrated based
on the region’s topographic, climatic, geologic and hydrologeolgic conditions. The model was used to explore the
impacts of climate changes; Sea Level Rise (SLR) by 1.0 m and temperature increase by 2�0C and 40�C on the
management scenarios. In addition, the required power for water management after 5, 10, 50 and 100 years were
determined. It was concluded that the best management scenario is to use 1000 wells to extract 1.2 Mm3/d of
water for serving a total area of 85,714 acres (360 km2). This scenario satisfies the project criteria that permits a
maximum drawdown less than 1 m/year. It was also concluded that SLR has mild effects on groundwater levels
due to the vast aquifer dimensions. Additionally, the increase in evapotranspiration due to temperature increase
will lead to a significant increase in the consumptive use. The power needed to extract water will continuously
increase due to the expected increase in drawdown. The required area for Photovoltaic (PV) solar plant was
determined and its value increased by 6% and 12% due to temperature increase of 2�C and 4�C, respectively. Keywords: ArcGIS | Climate change | Groundwater management | MODFLOW/GMS | Moghra aquifer | Solar energy |
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