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A Requiem for ‘‘Blame It on Beijing” interpreting rotating global current account surpluses
مرثیه ای برای «سرزنش آن به گردن پکن» که در حال تفسیر جهانی در حال چرخش است مازاد حساب جاری-2021 Global current account imbalances have reappeared, although the extent and distribution
of these imbalances are noticeably different from those experienced in the middle of the
last decade. What does that recurrence mean for our understanding of the origin and nature of such imbalances? Will imbalances persist over time? Informed by empirical estimates of the determinants of current account imbalances encompassing the period after
the global recession, we find that – as before – the observable manifestations of the factors
driving the global saving glut have limited explanatory power for the time series variation
in imbalances. Fiscal factors determine imbalances, and have accounted for a noticeable
share of the recent variation in imbalances, including in the U.S. and Germany. For
advanced economies, the financial component of the current account has been playing
an increasing role in determining the movements of the account. Examining observable
policy actions, it is clear that net official flows have been associated with some share of
imbalances, although tracing out the motivations for intervention is difficult. Looking forward, it is clear that policy can influence global imbalances, although some component of
the U.S. deficit will likely remain given the U.S. role in generating safe assets.
keywords: تعادل حساب جاری | دارایی های خارجی خالص | صرفه جویی | مروریسم | محافظت از خود | دارایی های ایمن | fi flows | Current account balance | Net foreign assets | Saving glut | Mercantilism | Self-protection | Safe assets | Official flows |
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