Know when to fold ‘em: An empirical description of risk management in public research funding
بدانید چه موقع برابر شوید: شرح تجربی مدیریت ریسک در بودجه تحقیق عمومی-2020
Public research funding programs typically make grants with minimal intervention by program staff, rather than using a hands-on approach to project management, which is more common in the private sector. In contrast, program staff at the US Department of Energys Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy (ARPA-E) are given a set of real options with which to manage funded projects: abandon, contract or expand project budgets or timelines. Using internal data from ARPA-E, we show that active project management enables risk mitigation across a portfolio of research projects. We find that program staff modify projects frequently, especially project timelines, and these changes are more sensitive to poor performance than to strong performance. We also find that projects with a shortened timeline or reduced budget are less likely to generate short-term research outputs, compared to those of ultimately similar size. This evidence suggests that the practice of active project management, when combined with high upfront risk tolerance, can be used to enhance the productivity of missionoriented public research funding.
Keywords: R&D funding | Project management | Real options | Managerial flexibility
The development of complex and controversial innovations. Genetically modified mosquitoes for malaria eradication
توسعه نوآوری های پیچیده و بحث برانگیز. پشه های اصلاح شده ژنتیکی برای ریشه کن کردن مالاریا-2020
When there is significant uncertainty in an innovation project, research literature suggests that strictly sequencing actions and stages may not be an appropriate mode of project management. We use a longitudinal process approach and qualitative system dynamics modelling to study the development of genetically modified (GM) mosquitoes for malaria eradication in an African country. Our data were collected in real time, from early scientific research to deployment of the first prototype mosquitoes in the field. The gene drive technology for modifying the mosquitoes is highly complex and controversial due to risks associated with its characteristics as a living, self-replicating technology. We show that in this case the innovation journey is linear and highly structured, but also embedded within a wider system of adoption that displays emergent behaviour. Although the need to control risks associated with the technology imposes a linearity to the NPD process, there are possibilities for deviation from a more structured sequence of stages. This arises from the effects of feedback loops in the wider system of evidence creation and learning at the population and governance levels, which cumulatively impact on acceptance of the innovation. The NPD and adoption processes are therefore closely intertwined, meaning that the endpoint for R&D and beginning of mainstream adoption and diffusion are unclear. A key challenge for those responsible for NPD and its regulation is to plan for the adoption of the technology while simultaneously conducting its scientific and technical development.
Keywords: New product development | Adoption | Genetically modified mosquitoes | Living technology | Gene drive | Malaria
Research on the policy route of China’s distributed photovoltaic power generation
تحقیق در مورد مسیر سیاست تولید انرژی فتوولتائیک و توزیع شده در چین-2020
The distributed photovoltaic power generation is an important way to make use of solar energy in cities. China issues a series of policies to support the development of distributed photovoltaics in law, electricity price, grid connection standard, project management, financial support and so on. However, there are still some defects in policies and market mechanism. China creates a competitive market with a significant number of projects of distributed photovoltaic power through the reform of the electricity market, yet substantial drawbacks of the corresponding investment subsidies prevent distributed photovoltaic power from rapidly developing. This paper summarizes the status quo of China’s distributed photovoltaic power development, given its long-term plan, presents excellences and shortcomings of the existing policy system, and looks into the supporting policies and implementation paths for China’s distributed photovoltaic power in different stages. Innovative business models and financial support models are conducive to the development of distributed photovoltaic power. Financial innovation methods such as crowd funding and asset securitization should be encouraged to develop a sound risk assessment mechanism for projects, involve insurance institutions, and establish a risk sharing mechanism. In the context of a series of supporting policies, the distributed photovoltaic power in China will move towards market-oriented standardization for a healthier and more stable development.
Keywords: Distributed photovoltaic power | Electricity price | Policy route | Development strategy
Drivers, barriers and social considerations for AI adoption in business and management: A tertiary study
رانندگان ، موانع و ملاحظات اجتماعی برای پذیرش هوش مصنوعی در مشاغل و مدیریت: یک مطالعه عالی-2020
The number of academic papers in the area of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its applications across business and management domains has risen significantly in the last decade, and that rise has been followed by an increase in the number of systematic literature reviews. The aim of this study is to provide an overview of existing systematic reviews in this growing area of research and to synthesise their findings related to enablers, barriers and social implications of the AI adoption in business and management. The methodology used for this tertiary study is based on Kitchenham and Charter’s guidelines , resulting in a selection of 30 reviews published between 2005 and 2019 which are reporting results of 2,021 primary studies. These reviews cover the AI adoption across various business sectors (healthcare, information technology, energy, agriculture, apparel industry, engineering, smart cities, tourism and transport), management and business functions (HR, customer services, supply chain, health and safety, project management, decisionsupport, systems management and technology acceptance). While the drivers for the AI adoption in these areas are mainly economic, the barriers are related to the technical aspects (e.g. availability of data, reusability of models) as well as the social considerations such as, increased dependence on non-humans, job security, lack of knowledge, safety, trust and lack of multiple stakeholders’ perspectives. Very few reviews outside of the healthcare management domain consider human, organisational and wider societal factors and implications of the AI adoption. Most of the selected reviews are recommending an increased focus on social aspects of AI, in addition to more rigorous evaluation, use of hybrid approaches (AI and non-AI) and multidisciplinary approaches to AI design and evaluation. Furthermore, this study found that there is a lack of systematic reviews in some of the AI early adopter sectors such as financial industry and retail and that the existing systematic reviews are not focusing enough on human, organisational or societal implications of the AI adoption in their research objectives.
Keywords: artificial intelligence | business | machine learning | management | systematic literature review | tertiary study
Qualitative and quantitative project risk assessment using a hybrid PMBOK model developed under uncertainty conditions
ارزیابی ریسک کمی و کیفی پروژه با استفاده از یک مدل توسعه یافته PMBOK تحت شرایط غیر قطعی-2020
This study presented a qualitative and quantitative project risk assessment using a hybrid PMBOK model developed under uncertainty conditions. Accordingly, an exploratory and applied research design was employed in this study. The research sample included 15 experienced staff working in main and related positions in Neyr Perse Company. After reviewing the literature and the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK), 32 risk factors were identified and their number reduced to 17 risks using the expert opinions via the fuzzy Delphi technique run through three stages. The results of the confirmatory factor analysis showed that all risks were confirmed by the members of the research sample. Then the identified risks were structured and ranked using fuzzy DEMATEL and fuzzy ANP techniques. The final results of the study showed that the political and economic sanctions had the highest weight followed by foreign investors’ attraction and the lack of regional infrastructure.
Keywords: Project risks | Project management body of knowledge (PMBOK) | Uncertainty | Mixed qualitative and quantitative risk assessment approach | Mathematics | Probability theory | Engineering | Industrial engineering | Business
Leading successful government-academia collaborations using FLOSS and agile values
پیشرو همکاریهای موفق دولت و آکادمی با استفاده از FLOSS و مقادیر چابک-2020
Government and academia share concerns for efficiently and effectively servicing societal demands, which includes the development of e-government software. Government-academia partnerships can be a valu- able approach for improving productivity in achieving these goals. However, governmental and academic institutions tend to have very different agendas and organizational and managerial structures, which can hinder the success of such collaborative projects. In order to identify effective approaches to overcome collaboration barriers, we systematically studied the case of the Brazilian Public Software portal project, a 30-month government-academia collaboration that, using Free/Libre/Open Source Software practices and agile methods for project management, developed an unprecedented platform in the context of the Brazil- ian government. We gathered information from experience reports and data collection from repositories and interviews to derive a collection of practices that contributed to the success of the collaboration. In this paper, we describe how the data analysis led to the identification of a set of three high-level decisions supported by the adoption of nine best practices that improved the project performance and enabled professional training of the whole team.
Keywords: Project management | Government-Academia collaboration | Free software | Open source software | Agile methodologies | e-Government
Uncertainty in information system development: Causes, effects, and coping mechanisms
عدم اطمینان در توسعه سیستم اطلاعات: علل ، اثرات و مکانیسم های مقابله-2020
Information system development (ISD) projects are an ever-growing field of project management (PM) with their unique features, and project failures in ISD are relatively common. In the broader context of PM, uncertainty is a studied, yet mercurial phenomenon. By contrast, uncertainty in ISD projects has received relatively little attention from scholars, and PM literature has not systematically focused on uncertainty in ISD from a viewpoint other than that of project managers. In order to understand uncertainties in ISD projects, we need to first understand the causes behind them, their effects on everyday ISD work, and share coping mechanisms utilized among industry professionals. In the context of ISD projects, we set out to explore what causes uncertainty, what are the effects of uncertainty, and how software industry professionals cope with uncertainty. We conducted eleven semi-structured interviews with a diverse range of ISD professionals, and analyzed the interviews using conventional content analysis. Our results extend and complement current knowledge on the causes, effects, and coping mechanisms of uncertainty, especially in the context of ISD. Additionally, we present practical considerations on how to implement our findings into ISD industry and education.
Keywords: Uncertainty | Risk | Information system development | Cause | Effect | Coping mechanism
Method for tracking and communicating aggregate risk through the use of model-based systems engineering (MBSE) tools
روش ردیابی و برقراری ارتباط ریسک با استفاده از ابزارهای مهندسی سیستم مبتنی بر مدل (MBSE)-2020
Large, complex projects can identify a significant number and variety of risks, throughout the project life cycle. These risks are analyzed, mitigated, closed or accepted as independent uncertainties. Once closed or accepted, it is easy for projects to lose awareness of their impact. In reality, each of these risks contributes some amount to the overall risk posture of the project. The ability to track and effectively communicate this aggregate risk has represented a challenge to project management. There have been previous attempts to create a schema to communicate the aggregate effect of risks, without notable success. Most of these attempts have centered on some additive metric derived from the scoring of likelihood and consequence values. This, in and of itself, is a logical approach, but all too often the scores were then aggregated to a level where all context was lost. One weakness has been a lack of attempt to create linkages or logical groups of the risks upon which useful aggregation could then occur. The overall move to model-based (systems) engineering (MBSE) has opened up a vast frontier of opportunities to better integrate all project data. MBSE provides an underlying layer that links data items to each other. Objectives link to requirements, which then link to functions, functions to physical architecture items, and so on, as far down as projects want to model. While it started with a focus on modeling requirements based on things like use cases, efforts are now underway to integrate safety and mission assurance (S&MA) information and analyses, such as risks. This effort, called Model Based Mission Assurance (MBMA), is yielding models that are more useful and are a more accurate representations of the systems. MBSE models, with this ability to link related items, provide a new means of tracking and communicating ag- gregate risks. In the proposed method, risks are added into the models as distinct items, having attributes that communicate a scoring derived from the likelihood and consequence values as charted on the standard NASA 5 ×5 risk matrix. Like earlier efforts, each box in the 5 ×5 has an associated scoring, which may include both a current score and potential post-mitigation/control score. The risk items are then linked to elements of the model, such as system objectives/goals, requirements, functions, or physical architecture items, with “Risk to ”relationships. These risks will then be communicated by use of reports generated from the model, detailing all risks and/or hazards linked to model elements. These reports can include aggregate impacts, including a current scoring and potential future state scoring based on the planned mitigations and/or controls. These reports will show all risks, open, accepted, and closed, linked to project objectives or requirements. When run as part of an upcoming risk acceptance discussion, these reports will serve to remind the team of all previous risks that relate to the effected portion of the system. When included as part of periodic program or project reviews, risk reviews, and safety reviews, this method can improve the overall understanding of the system’s true risk posture. This proposed method takes full advantage of the advances that modern modeling techniques provide, with a minimal investment of additional time. Utilizing the model environment also enables a near constant access to current state of aggregate risks.
Designing with differences, cross-disciplinary collaboration in transport infrastructure planning and design
طراحی با تفاوت ها ، همکاری های متقابل انضباطی در برنامه ریزی و طراحی زیرساخت های حمل و نقل-2020
The study explores enablers and barriers of collaborative planning and design work in transport infrastructure planning projects, drawing upon five cases of projects in Sweden. The study apply a set of theoretical lenses complied of previous research focusing professional knowledge and co-production in planning and design practices, and research revolving around the concept of boundary objects in studies of collaborative work. The study provides insights into the mechanisms of practitioners learning across professional boundaries: what they learn fromeach other, howthey learn, and how the learning facilitates collaborative work. The results show that disciplinary barriers can be bridged through both individual efforts and project management strategies. This study shed light a set of enablers on individual level including; 1) a capacity to change focus between solving tasks within the remit of ones own discipline and jointly solving tasks together with professionals representing other disciplines; 2) curiosity and interest other professional perspectives; 3) willingness to learn from other professionals; and 4) motivation to engage in cross-disciplinary design processes. Project management is proposed to enable collaboration by; 1) opening up discussions about reasons and motives for collaborative work; 2) opening up discussions about strategies for collaborative processes; 3) promoting and facilitating learning processes among project participants, 4) coordinating meetings and activities for collaboration, and 5) facilitating deliberative dialogues at project meetings in which different types of knowledge can be put forth and interrelated.
Keywords: Transport infrastructure planning | Cross-disciplinary collaboration | Landscape architects | Engineers | Boundary objects | Professional knowledge
An Approach Based on Bayesian Network for Improving ProjectManagement Maturity: An Application to Reduce Cost Overrun Risksin Engineering Projects
رویکرد مبتنی بر شبکه بیزی برای بهبود بلوغ مدیریت پروژه: برنامه ای برای کاهش هزینه های پیشی گرفتن از پروژه های مهندسی ریسکین-2020
The project management field has the imperative to increase the success probability of projects. Expertshave developed several Project Management Maturity (PMM) models to assess project managementpractices and improve the project outcome. However, the current literature lacks models that allowexperts to correlate the measured maturity with the expected probability of success. The present paperdevelops a general framework and a method to estimate the impact of PMM on project performance. Ituses Bayesian networks to formalize project management experts’ knowledge and to extract knowledgefrom a database of past projects. An industrial case concerning large projects in the oil and gas industryis used to illustrate the application of the method to reduce the risk of project cost (or budget) overruns.
Keywords:Bayesian Networks | Cost Overrun | Knowledge Modeling | Maturity Model | Project Management