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1 |
Qualitative and quantitative project risk assessment using a hybrid PMBOK model developed under uncertainty conditions
ارزیابی ریسک کمی و کیفی پروژه با استفاده از یک مدل توسعه یافته PMBOK تحت شرایط غیر قطعی-2020 This study presented a qualitative and quantitative project risk assessment using a hybrid PMBOK model developed under uncertainty conditions. Accordingly, an exploratory and applied research design was employed in this study. The research sample included 15 experienced staff working in main and related positions in Neyr Perse Company. After reviewing the literature and the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK), 32 risk factors were identified and their number reduced to 17 risks using the expert opinions via the fuzzy Delphi technique run through three stages. The results of the confirmatory factor analysis showed that all risks were confirmed by the members of the research sample. Then the identified risks were structured and ranked using fuzzy DEMATEL and fuzzy ANP techniques. The final results of the study showed that the political and economic sanctions had the highest weight followed by foreign investors’ attraction and the lack of regional infrastructure. Keywords: Project risks | Project management body of knowledge (PMBOK) | Uncertainty | Mixed qualitative and quantitative risk assessment approach | Mathematics | Probability theory | Engineering | Industrial engineering | Business |
مقاله انگلیسی |
2 |
How to finance for establishing hydrogen refueling stations in China? An analysis based on Fuzzy AHP and PROMETHEE
چگونه می توان برای ایجاد ایستگاه های سوخت گیری هیدروژن در چین تأمین مالی کرد؟ آنالیز مبتنی بر فازی AHP و PROMETHEE-2020 Fuel Cell Vehicles are considered as a promising alternative for future sustainable transportation,
while the deployment of hydrogen refueling stations is one of the major barriers
that blocking the commercial introduction of Fuel Cell Vehicles. Since the establishment of
hydrogen infrastructures not only requires quite a large investment, but also needs efficient
project management and operation. Therefore, how to finance and operate hydrogen
infrastructures is a difficult question for decision makers. In this study, it introduced four
business models for financing and operating hydrogen refueling stations: Build-Operate-
Transfer, Transfer-Operate-Transfer, Public-Private-Partnership, and Asset- Backed Securitization,
and identified six criteria for prioritizing them. Then, it employed Fuzzy Analytic
Hierarchy Process to determine the weight for the criteria, and compared the performance
of these models with respect each criterion. Finally, the method of Preference Ranking
Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations was used to determine the priority of
each model for financing hydrogen refueling stations, and a Sensitivity Analysis was
conducted to find the most appropriate model in different situations. The results indicated
that financing difficulty, project risks, and financing costs are the most important factors
for strategic investors to involve in financing hydrogen refueling stations. Among the four
financing models, Public-Private-Partnership and Transfer-Operate-Transfer models are
turned out to be more preferable for financing hydrogen infrastructure in China. Some
policy implications have also been provided for the establishment of hydrogen refueling
stations. Keywords: Hydrogen refueling stations | Financing models | Fuzzy-AHP | PROMETHEE | Sensitivity analysis |
مقاله انگلیسی |
3 |
Qualitative and quantitative project risk assessment using a hybrid PMBOK model developed under uncertainty conditions
ارزیابی کیفی و کمی ریسک پروژه با استفاده از یک مدل ترکیبی PMBOK که در شرایط عدم اطمینان ایجاد شده است-2020 This study presented a qualitative and quantitative project risk assessment using a hybrid PMBOK model
developed under uncertainty conditions. Accordingly, an exploratory and applied research design was employed
in this study. The research sample included 15 experienced staff working in main and related positions in Neyr
Perse Company. After reviewing the literature and the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK), 32
risk factors were identified and their number reduced to 17 risks using the expert opinions via the fuzzy Delphi
technique run through three stages. The results of the confirmatory factor analysis showed that all risks were
confirmed by the members of the research sample. Then the identified risks were structured and ranked using
fuzzy DEMATEL and fuzzy ANP techniques. The final results of the study showed that the political and economic
sanctions had the highest weight followed by foreign investors’ attraction and the lack of regional infrastructure.
Keywords: Project risks | Project management body of knowledge(PMBOK) | Uncertainty | Mixed qualitative and quantitative risk | assessment approach | Mathematics | Probability theory | Engineering | Industrial engineering | Business |
مقاله انگلیسی |
4 |
Analyzing green building project risk interdependencies using Interpretive Structural Modeling
تجزیه و تحلیل وابستگی متقابل پروژه ساختمان سبز با استفاده از مدل سازی ساختاری تفسیری-2020 Green building (GB) projects have attracted wide attention in the construction industry in recent years
owing to numerous benefits of green practices for sustainable development. However, existing research
efforts on GB project risk management are very limited, and no prior in-depth research has focused on
studying the risk interdependencies in GB projects from the perspectives of both the project life cycle
and multiple project risks. This paper begins by identifying and distinguishing GB project constraints
from multiple GB project risks using a systematic literature review and then investigates, based on the
Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) method, the risk interdependencies taking into account the
identified 16 constraint factors, 22 risk factors and 11 objectives throughout a GB project life cycle. The
importance of constraints and risk factors associated with GB project objectives was calculated based on
the influence transmission through network paths in the established ISM-based model. In addition, the
Matrice d’Impacts Croises Multiplication Appliquee a un Classement (MICMAC) approach was used to
analyze the drive and dependence powers of risk interdependency elements. Critical constraints and risk
factors in the implementation of GB projects can be obtained from the proposed risk analysis model,
which contributes to an in-depth risk perception of GB projects for industry practitioners and facilitates
GB project risk management in a more effective way Keywords: Green building projects | Risk management | Risk interdependencies | Interpretive structural modeling (ISM) | Matrice d’Impacts Croises Multiplication | Appliquee a un Classement (MICMAC) | analysis |
مقاله انگلیسی |