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نتیجه جستجو - Quantitative Risk Assessment

تعداد مقالات یافته شده: 4
ردیف عنوان نوع
1 Accounting for Safety Barriers Degradation in the Risk Assessment of Oil and Gas Systems by Multistate Bayesian Networks
حسابداری برای تخریب موانع ایمنی در ارزیابی ریسک سیستم های نفت و گاز توسط شبکه های چندگانه بیزی-2021
In this paper, a multistate Bayesian Network (BN) is proposed to model and evaluate the functional performance of safety barriers in Oil and Gas plants. The nodes of the BN represent the safety barriers Health States (HSs) and the corresponding conditional Failure Probability (FP) values are assigned. HSs are assessed on the basis of specific Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) related to the barrier characteristics (i.e., technical, procedural or organizational, continuously monitored or event-based characterized). FP values are estimated from failure datasets (for technical barriers), evaluated by Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) (for operational and organi- zational barriers) and assigned by expert elicitation (for barriers lacking data or information). For illustration, the multistate BN model is developed for preventive barriers and applied to a case study related to the potential release of flammable material in the slug catcher of a representative O&G Upstream plant which may lead to major accident scenarios (fire, explosion, toxic dispersion). The results from the case study demonstrate that the multistate BN model is able to account for the safety barriers HS and their associated functional performance.
keywords: ارزیابی ریسک کمی | ارزیابی خطر زندگی | شبکه بیزی | مانع ایمنی | شاخص عملکرد کلیدی | حاشیه ایمنی احتمالی | Quantitative Risk Assessment | Living Risk Assessment | Bayesian Network | Safety Barrier | Key Performance Indicator | Probabilistic Safety Margins
مقاله انگلیسی
2 Backtracking and prospect on LNG supply chain safety
پیگیری و چشم انداز ایمنی زنجیره تامین LNG-2021
The safety issues of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) in production, storage, loading/unloading, transportation/ shipping, and re-gasification have became a major concern, since an accident in the LNG industry would be very costly. Understanding the threat of LNG not only contributes to the process safety and reliability in the research and development (R&D) system, but improves the efficiency of loss prevention, fire protection and emergency responses. As of April 2019, in order to obtain the present status and trend of LNG safety research, basing 1122 documents of the Web of Science database about safety research of LNG as a data source, Cite Space and VOS viewer were used for network knowledge map analysis. A comprehensive knowledge map of LNG safety field was obtained from several research aspects including scientific research power, research hot spots and trends, research knowledge base and frontier. According to the study results, the development of LNG safety research was divided into four stages from 1970s to 2019, China and South Korea made a lot of contributions, and the United States is the most influential. Among them, the research from 2005 to 2019 was the most representative. Current research results indicate that a combination of Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) methodology and Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification (DyPASI) will fully identify risks; The PHAST and TerEx programs quickly define safety zones. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software package can provide ac- curate quantitative data for the study of LNG safety. Research on quantitative risk assessment (QRA) and LNG evaporated gas (BOG) has been a hot topic and trend in this field. The application of expansion foam in LNG accident mitigation covers most of the research content in this field, and the optimization of LNG liquefaction process has a great influence on this industry. As the international demand for LNG energy output increases, floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) will have considerable development, and increasingly researchers attach vital importance to the safety of LNG offshore production integrated unit.
Keywords: Liquefied natural gas | Supply chain | Safety | FLNG | CiteSpace | VOS viewer
مقاله انگلیسی
3 Qualitative and quantitative project risk assessment using a hybrid PMBOK model developed under uncertainty conditions
ارزیابی ریسک کمی و کیفی پروژه با استفاده از یک مدل توسعه یافته PMBOK تحت شرایط غیر قطعی-2020
This study presented a qualitative and quantitative project risk assessment using a hybrid PMBOK model developed under uncertainty conditions. Accordingly, an exploratory and applied research design was employed in this study. The research sample included 15 experienced staff working in main and related positions in Neyr Perse Company. After reviewing the literature and the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK), 32 risk factors were identified and their number reduced to 17 risks using the expert opinions via the fuzzy Delphi technique run through three stages. The results of the confirmatory factor analysis showed that all risks were confirmed by the members of the research sample. Then the identified risks were structured and ranked using fuzzy DEMATEL and fuzzy ANP techniques. The final results of the study showed that the political and economic sanctions had the highest weight followed by foreign investors’ attraction and the lack of regional infrastructure.
Keywords: Project risks | Project management body of knowledge (PMBOK) | Uncertainty | Mixed qualitative and quantitative risk assessment approach | Mathematics | Probability theory | Engineering | Industrial engineering | Business
مقاله انگلیسی
4 Improving risk assessment in financial feasibility of international engineering projects: A risk driver perspective
بهبود ارزیابی ریسک در امکان مالی پروژه های مهندسی بین المللی: دیدگاه رانندگان خطر-2017
Major engineering projects characterized by intensive technologies and high investment are becoming more complex with increasing risks in a global market. Because incorrect investment decision-making can cause great losses to investors, quantitative risk assessment is widely used in establishing the financial feasibility of projects. However, existing methods focus on the impact of uncertain parameters, such as income, on decision variables of investment, neglecting assessing the impact of risk events, such as the sales of products falling short of expectations. In the context of international engineering projects from a risk driver perspective, this paper presents an improved quantitative risk assessment model to help risk managers identify the direct relationships between specific risk events and decision variables of investment. Stress testing is also introduced to assess the negative impact of extreme risks. The new model is applied to an on-going international petrochemical project to demonstrate its use and validate its applicability and effectiveness.
Keywords: Quantitative risk assessment | Investment decision-making | Risk driver perspective | Monte Carlo simulation | Stress testing
مقاله انگلیسی
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