Research on the policy route of China’s distributed photovoltaic power generation
تحقیق در مورد مسیر سیاست تولید انرژی فتوولتائیک و توزیع شده در چین-2020
The distributed photovoltaic power generation is an important way to make use of solar energy in cities. China issues a series of policies to support the development of distributed photovoltaics in law, electricity price, grid connection standard, project management, financial support and so on. However, there are still some defects in policies and market mechanism. China creates a competitive market with a significant number of projects of distributed photovoltaic power through the reform of the electricity market, yet substantial drawbacks of the corresponding investment subsidies prevent distributed photovoltaic power from rapidly developing. This paper summarizes the status quo of China’s distributed photovoltaic power development, given its long-term plan, presents excellences and shortcomings of the existing policy system, and looks into the supporting policies and implementation paths for China’s distributed photovoltaic power in different stages. Innovative business models and financial support models are conducive to the development of distributed photovoltaic power. Financial innovation methods such as crowd funding and asset securitization should be encouraged to develop a sound risk assessment mechanism for projects, involve insurance institutions, and establish a risk sharing mechanism. In the context of a series of supporting policies, the distributed photovoltaic power in China will move towards market-oriented standardization for a healthier and more stable development.
Keywords: Distributed photovoltaic power | Electricity price | Policy route | Development strategy
Qualitative and quantitative project risk assessment using a hybrid PMBOK model developed under uncertainty conditions
ارزیابی ریسک کمی و کیفی پروژه با استفاده از یک مدل توسعه یافته PMBOK تحت شرایط غیر قطعی-2020
This study presented a qualitative and quantitative project risk assessment using a hybrid PMBOK model developed under uncertainty conditions. Accordingly, an exploratory and applied research design was employed in this study. The research sample included 15 experienced staff working in main and related positions in Neyr Perse Company. After reviewing the literature and the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK), 32 risk factors were identified and their number reduced to 17 risks using the expert opinions via the fuzzy Delphi technique run through three stages. The results of the confirmatory factor analysis showed that all risks were confirmed by the members of the research sample. Then the identified risks were structured and ranked using fuzzy DEMATEL and fuzzy ANP techniques. The final results of the study showed that the political and economic sanctions had the highest weight followed by foreign investors’ attraction and the lack of regional infrastructure.
Keywords: Project risks | Project management body of knowledge (PMBOK) | Uncertainty | Mixed qualitative and quantitative risk assessment approach | Mathematics | Probability theory | Engineering | Industrial engineering | Business
Economic feasibility valuing of deep mineral resources based on risk analysis: Songtao manganese ore - China case study
ارزیابی امکان سنجی اقتصادی منابع معدنی عمیق بر اساس ریسک تجزیه و تحلیل: سنگ معدن منگنز Songtao - مطالعه موردی چین-2020
The exploitation of deep mineral resources is an inevitable choice under economic development and resource shortage. Assessing the economic feasibility of deep mineral resource exploit projects is a prerequisite for resource industry development. Mining industry have some problems influence its economic feasibility, including long mining period, high infrastructure investment and lack flexibility, and have risks of geology instability and economic reserve degrade. On the other hand, with the increase of the buried depth of mineral resources, some problems have intensified the uncertainty of the profit of deep resource utilization project, such as high stress, high lithology, high temperature environment, and increase of upgrading cost. Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) are traditional economic evaluation means which difficult to identify and assess risks precisely. Decoupled Net Present Value (DNPV) provides an efficiency tool to separate the time value and risk cost which is helpful to finds the real value of projects. A manganese mining project which is located Guizhou province, China is analyzed, paper choices several mainly risks of influence expected revenue to analysis project feasibility based on the DNPV technology, which includes the thickness of ore body, ore grade, market price, operation cost and nature disaster. The cost of potential environmental risk (carbon emission cost) also is analyzed. Paper constructs a risk management framework by risk identify, assess and classification, and analyzes the corresponding measures to reduce risk costs. The mainly risk cost of study case from market price shock and unexpected ore grade decline, which accounting for 80% of the total risk cost. In the process of deep mineral resources exploit, effective cost control measures can reduce the risk cost to a certain extent, including improving productivity, reducing unit cost of ore, improving mine sustainability and exploration accuracy. Green mineral construction is a feasible direction of deep resource utilization. For improve the accuracy of economic feasibility evaluation of deep mineral resources utilization, further improvement is needed in the selection and construction of different risk assessment model.
Keywords: Deep mining | Risk value assess | DNPV | Risk management | Songtao manganese
Incorporating stochastic correlations into mining project evaluation using the Jacobi process
ترکیب همبستگی تصادفی در ارزیابی پروژه استخراج با استفاده از فرآیند ژاکوبی-2020
Uncertainty is an important phenomenon in mine project evaluation. Recovery, grade, commodity price, discount rate, and operating costs are highly uncertain variables. Given that uncertainties cannot be fully eliminated, mining companies focus on assessing risks associated with uncertainties. Mining projects generally encompass 10–50 years, and the evolution of uncertain parameters over this long time period is also uncertain. Since the future cannot be predicted, one way to deal with uncertainty is to create probable images of reality through simulation. When simulating multiple uncertain variables over time, an immediate problem is how to handle correlations among uncertain variables because the correlations themselves are uncertain variables. In this paper, the Jacobi process is used to treat the correlations stochastically. A case study was implemented in a mine project evaluation (e.g., net present value and option pricing), in which the gold prices and the US interest rates were considered as correlated uncertain variables. The correlations among uncertain variables significantly affected the value of the mining project. The Jacobi process can be used as a tool to increase the performance of mine project evaluation.
Keywords: Correlation | Jacobi process | Mineral industries | Mine project evaluation | Risk assessment | Stochastic process
A meta-analysis of the relationship between psychosis and any type of criminal offending, in both men and women
متاآنالیز رابطه بین روان پریشی و هر نوع جرم مجرمانه ، در زنان و مردان-2020
Background: Psychosis is known to be associated with an increased risk of violent offending, but the risk of criminal offending of any type is not so well understood, including the nature and extent of any differences in offending risk for men and women with psychosis. Methods: A systematic search of electronic databases from1970 toMarch 2020was conducted to identify studies comparing criminal offending amongst those with psychosis to a general population sample. A meta-analysis was performed, with separate analyses undertaken for men and women. Results: Eight studies, with a total of 15,446 individuals with psychosis and 186,752 controls fromgeneral population sources, met our inclusion criteria. The pooled odds ratio for any type of criminal offending for men with psychosiswas 2.42 (95% CI=1.63–3.59), and for women itwas 2.81 (95% CI=2.11–3.76). Substantial between study heterogeneity was identified. Conclusions: Although the pooled odds ratio for all types of offending was not as high as has been found for violence, those with psychotic illness were more than twice as likely to have had contact with the criminal justice system for any type of criminal offence, compared to the general population. Little difference in risk was seen for women compared to men with psychosis. Clinical risk assessments and the development of interventions to reduce risk of contact with the criminal justice system should consider that risk of offending for those with psychosis extends right across the spectrum of offence types.
Keywords: Psychosis | Offending | Crime | Justice | Sex differences
Application of a fuzzy-logic based model for risk assessment in additive manufacturing r&d projects
استفاده از یک مدل مبتنی بر منطق فازی برای ارزیابی ریسک در پروژه های تحقیق و توسعه افزودنی-2020
Experts from industry and academics have highlighted Additive Manufacturing (AM) as a technology that is revolutionizing manufacturing. AM is a process that consists of creating a three-dimensional object by incorporating layers of a material such as metal or polymer. This research studies risks associated with AM R&D Project Management. A significant set of risks with a potential negative impact on project objectives in terms of scope, schedule, cost and quality are identified through an extensive literature review. These risks are assessed through a survey answered by ninety academics and professionals with noteworthy sector expertise. This process is made by the measurement of two parameters: likelihood of occurrence and impact on project objectives. According to the responses of the experts, the level of relevance of each risk is calculated, innovatively, through a fuzzy logic-based model, specifically developed for this study, implemented in MATLAB Fuzzy Logic Toolbox. The results of this study show that the risks “Defects occurring during the manufacturing process”, “Defective design”, “Poor communication in the project team” and “Insufficient financing” are determined as the most critical in AM R&D Project Management. The proposed model is presented as a powerful new tool for organizations and academics, to prioritize the risks that are more critical to develop appropriate response strategies to achieve the success of their projects.
Keywords: Additive Manufacturing | 3D printing | Risk Assessment | Project Management | Fuzzy Logic
Risk assessment and management via multi-source information fusion for undersea tunnel construction
ارزیابی و مدیریت ریسک از طریق تلفیق اطلاعات چند منبع برای ساخت تونل زیر زمینی -2020
The construction of undersea tunnels is an extremely risky endeavor that is vulnerable to water seepage and gushing due to the high water pressure, complex geological conditions, and pore water trapped in unstable rocks. This risk can lead to the collapse of tunnels under construction and disastrous consequences of fatalities and injuries as well as project delays and financial losses. The current risk management practices for tunnel construction projects in China are static and rely on the subjective judgement of experts and practitioners and do not incorporate real-time monitoring data during the construction process at this time. This paper presents a new method and system to assess and manage the risks during the construction process by coupling the risk management system and the quality management system and integrating jobsite monitoring data, design data, and environmental data. In this new method and system, the risk factors are categorized into (hu)man, material, machine, method, and environment, or 4M1E, and are quantitatively measured. The Dempster-Shaffer (D-S) theory was adopted in this method to both fuse the 4M1E data and to compute the aggregate risk index. This new method and system was tested during the Xiamen Metro Line No. 3 project when a shield machine cutter accident occurred. The results show that, before the accident, the individual risk measures in all five dimensions (4M1E) and the aggregate risk index were extremely high, which clearly illustrated the feasibility and capability of the newly developed method and system.
Keywords: Undersea tunnel construction | Multi-source information fusion | Construction risk | D-S evidence theory | Fuzzy matter element
BIM-integrated management of occupational hazards in building construction and maintenance
مدیریت یکپارچه BIM از خطرات شغلی در ساخت ساختمان و نگهداری-2020
Health and safety in the construction sector are very important issues owing to the high accident rate in the industry. Recent studies have shown that implementing the building information modelling (BIM) methodology can improve the working conditions at construction sites and during building maintenance. Therefore, the European Union is promoting the development of projects through BIM. The government of Spain has established a roadmap to enforce the development of projects with BIM, and the integration of occupational health and safety in projects developed with BIM in Spain must comply with the current regulations. This study proposes a methodology—consistent with the requirements stipulated by the Spanish health and safety regulations— for its integration in the design phase of building projects developed using BIM.
Keywords: Building information modelling | Health and safety | Occupational risk assessment
Customized risk assessment in military shipbuilding
ارزیابی ریسک سفارشی در کشتی سازی ارتش-2020
This paper describes a customized risk assessment framework to be applied in military shipbuilding projects. The framework incorporates the Delphi method with visual diagrams, Bayesian Networks (BN) and the expression of expert opinions through linguistic variables. Noisy-OR and Leak Canonical models are used to determine the conditional probabilities of the BN model. The approach can easily be adapted for other shipbuilding construction projects. The visual diagrams that support the Delphi questionnaire favor the comprehensive visualization of the interdependencies between risks, causes, risks and causes, and risks and effects. The applicability of the framework is illustrated through the assessment of risk of two real military shipbuilding projects. This assessment includes a sensitivity analysis that is useful to prioritize mitigation actions. In the two cases studies, the risks with higher probability of occurrence were failures or errors in production, of the contracted, in the requirements, and in planning. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that a set of mitigation actions directed at relatively easily controllable causes would have achieved important reductions in risk probabilities
Keywords: Project management | Shipbuilding projects | Risk network model | Delph | iBayesian network
Risk assessment tool floundering? Lets ask the client to self-predict
ابزار ارزیابی ریسک در حال دستکاری است ؟ بیایید از مشتری بخواهیم پیش بینی کند-2020
Self-prediction by criminal justice involved clients has not been typically implemented in risk assessment procedures, yet clients have unique self-knowledge that may add to the assessment of risk. The Transition Inventory is an eight scale self-prediction measure that addresses areas that are a precursor to antisocial and criminal activity (e.g., “Drugs or alcohol will be a problem for me”). The Transition Inventory was administered to 131 paroled clients (primary drug-related offenses), 104 of whom were of minority/ethnic status. Predictive validity was demonstrated by the Transition Inventory incrementally predicting supervision failure. Individual scale construct validity was demonstrated by predicting later assessed corresponding measures, with the Leisure scale having the most robust predictive relationship. Self-prediction may promote greater predictability and stronger client engagement in the assessment process.
Keywords: Self-prediction | Risk assessment | Dynamic risk | User involvement | Transition Ιnventory