با سلام خدمت کاربران عزیز، به اطلاع می رساند ترجمه مقالاتی که سال انتشار آن ها زیر 2008 می باشد رایگان بوده و میتوانید با وارد شدن در صفحه جزییات مقاله به رایگان ترجمه را دانلود نمایید.
Know when to fold ‘em: An empirical description of risk management in public research funding
بدانید چه موقع برابر شوید: شرح تجربی مدیریت ریسک در بودجه تحقیق عمومی-2020
Public research funding programs typically make grants with minimal intervention by program staff, rather than using a hands-on approach to project management, which is more common in the private sector. In contrast, program staff at the US Department of Energys Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy (ARPA-E) are given a set of real options with which to manage funded projects: abandon, contract or expand project budgets or timelines. Using internal data from ARPA-E, we show that active project management enables risk mitigation across a portfolio of research projects. We find that program staff modify projects frequently, especially project timelines, and these changes are more sensitive to poor performance than to strong performance. We also find that projects with a shortened timeline or reduced budget are less likely to generate short-term research outputs, compared to those of ultimately similar size. This evidence suggests that the practice of active project management, when combined with high upfront risk tolerance, can be used to enhance the productivity of missionoriented public research funding.
Keywords: R&D funding | Project management | Real options | Managerial flexibility
Phase-based externality analysis for large hydropower projects
تجزیه و تحلیل بیرونی مبتنی بر فاز برای پروژه های بزرگ نیروگاهی-2020
The global pressure of reducing greenhouse gas emission with an increasing energy demand has promoted the development of hydropower projects. However, these projects are always involved with controversial issues even when providing great positive externalities. This calls for more comprehensively quantitative analysis of hydropower project externalities. This paper establishes an analysis framework for hydropower project externalities based on the Life Cycle Assessment methodology and the economic valuation of hydropower externalities, and then applies the framework to the assessment of the Three Gorges Project and the Xiluodu Project as cases. The results indicate that: (1) hydropower project externalities are multi-component and dynamic in different phases of project life cycle; (2) the construction of large hydropower projects is beneficial for social welfare promotion, but the enhancement doesnt appear immediately at the startup but with a lag; and (3) along the life cycle of a hydropower project, negative externalities are prominent in the early phases while positive ones account for a major proportion in the late phases, calling for special attention to risk management during the construction and benefit allocation management during project operation. The results and recommendations of this paper can also be applied to other types of public or private projects for better social performance.
Keywords: Externality | Life cycle assessment | Stakeholders | Hydropower project | The Three Gorges project | The Xiluodu project
Managing the risks of energy efficiency insurances in a portfolio context: An actuarial diversification approach
مدیریت ریسک بیمه های بهره وری انرژی در یک زمینه پرتفوی: یک رویکرد متنوع سازی مجذوب-2020
To achieve ambitious international climate goals, an increase of energy efficiency investments is necessary and, thus, a growing market potential arises. Concomitantly, the relevance of managing the risk of financing and insuring energy efficiency measures increases continuously. Energy Efficiency Insurances encourage investors by guaranteeing a predefined energy efficiency performance. However, literature on quantitative analysis of pricing and diversification effects of such novel insurance solutions is scarce. This paper provides a first approach for the analysis of diversification potential on three levels: collective risk diversification, cross product line diversification, and financial hedging. Based on an extensive real-world data set for German residential buildings, the analysis reveals that underwriting different Energy Efficiency Insurance types and constructing Markowitz Minimum Variance Portfolios halves overall risk in terms of standard deviation. We evince that Energy Efficiency Insurances can diversify property insurance portfolios and reduce regulatory capital for insurers under Solvency II constraints. Moreover, we show that Energy Efficiency Insurances potentially supersede financial market instruments such as weather derivatives in diversifying property insurance portfolios. In summary, these three levels of diversification effects constitute an additional benefit for the introduction of Energy Efficiency Insurances and may positively impact their market development.
Keywords: Energy efficiency investment | Energy efficiency insurance | Energy portfolio risk management | Energy portfolio optimization | Risk diversification
Economic feasibility valuing of deep mineral resources based on risk analysis: Songtao manganese ore - China case study
ارزیابی امکان سنجی اقتصادی منابع معدنی عمیق بر اساس ریسک تجزیه و تحلیل: سنگ معدن منگنز Songtao - مطالعه موردی چین-2020
The exploitation of deep mineral resources is an inevitable choice under economic development and resource shortage. Assessing the economic feasibility of deep mineral resource exploit projects is a prerequisite for resource industry development. Mining industry have some problems influence its economic feasibility, including long mining period, high infrastructure investment and lack flexibility, and have risks of geology instability and economic reserve degrade. On the other hand, with the increase of the buried depth of mineral resources, some problems have intensified the uncertainty of the profit of deep resource utilization project, such as high stress, high lithology, high temperature environment, and increase of upgrading cost. Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) are traditional economic evaluation means which difficult to identify and assess risks precisely. Decoupled Net Present Value (DNPV) provides an efficiency tool to separate the time value and risk cost which is helpful to finds the real value of projects. A manganese mining project which is located Guizhou province, China is analyzed, paper choices several mainly risks of influence expected revenue to analysis project feasibility based on the DNPV technology, which includes the thickness of ore body, ore grade, market price, operation cost and nature disaster. The cost of potential environmental risk (carbon emission cost) also is analyzed. Paper constructs a risk management framework by risk identify, assess and classification, and analyzes the corresponding measures to reduce risk costs. The mainly risk cost of study case from market price shock and unexpected ore grade decline, which accounting for 80% of the total risk cost. In the process of deep mineral resources exploit, effective cost control measures can reduce the risk cost to a certain extent, including improving productivity, reducing unit cost of ore, improving mine sustainability and exploration accuracy. Green mineral construction is a feasible direction of deep resource utilization. For improve the accuracy of economic feasibility evaluation of deep mineral resources utilization, further improvement is needed in the selection and construction of different risk assessment model.
Keywords: Deep mining | Risk value assess | DNPV | Risk management | Songtao manganese
Risk propagation and mitigation of design change for complex product development (CPD) projects based on multilayer network theory
انتشار ریسک و کاهش تغییر طراحی برای پروژه های پیچیده توسعه محصول (CPD) بر اساس تئوری شبکه چند لایه-2020
Change risk propagation caused by unexpected design change has become a major source of risk to complex product development (CPD) projects and provides great challenge to existing project risk management methods. The aim of this paper is to reveal the law of design change risk propagation and mitigate the disruptive design change risk propagation through improving the robustness and resilience of CPD projects. First, the CPD projects are represented by multilayer networks with product-layer and organization-layer. Then, the model of design change risk propagation is built based on load-capacity model under the consideration of change risk mitigation strategies including redundant resource, inter-partner coordination, and project learning efficiency. Furthermore, the effects of these strategies and their portfolios are estimated through numerical simulation. The results provide the most cost-effective strategies to ultimately recover the multilayer CPD network within a certain time frame. This paper proposes a new perspective to mitigate the design change risk of CPD projects after the definition of project architecture and have implications for project managers to make reasonable decisions according to concrete project contexts.
Keywords: Complex product development | Project risk management | Design change | Risk propagation | Risk mitigation
Integrating case-based analysis and fuzzy optimization for selecting project risk response actions
تلفیق تجزیه و تحلیل مبتنی بر مورد و بهینه سازی فازی برای انتخاب اقدامات واکنش ریسک پروژه-2020
This article proposes a method based on case-based analysis and fuzzy optimization to provide decision support in project risk response. The main steps of the method are: (1) the formulation of alternative risk response actions (RRAs) based on case-based analysis, and (2) the determination of the optimal set of RRAs using a fuzzy optimization model. Based on the method, project managers (PMs) can find out alternative RRAs and further determine an optimal set of RRAs. Some managerial suggestion and implication are drawn from the results of the article. First, to perform better risk response in future, it is suggested that organizations should always capture a long-term perspective, with an awareness of keeping documents of all handled historical projects. Second, since each RRA obtained from alternative historical cases nee Keywords: Project risk management | Case-based | Risk response action (RRA) | Fuzzy optimization
Risk management in the software life cycle: A systematic literature review
مدیریت ریسک در چرخه عمر نرم افزار: مروری بر ادبیات سیستماتیک-2020
Risk management (RM) plays a key role in project management, as it allows identification and prompt management of threats that may arise during project execution. Furthermore, project management within the software industry is evolving rapidly nowadays, a fact that implies new challenges, because the emergence and use of fresh approaches has brought a greater degree of complexity to the RM process. The objective of this paper is to carry out a systematic literature review (SLR) in the field of software risk, in an attempt to characterize and present the state of the art of this field, identifying gaps and opportunities for further research. From the analysis of the results of this SLR it could be observed that interest on the part of the scientific community has turned away from the definition of research work that addressed an integrated risk management process, to pay attention to work that concentrates on specific activities of this process. It was also possible to see that there is a clear lack of scientific rigour as regards the process of validation in the different studies, and a deficiency in the use of standards or of de facto models to define these.
Keywords: Software risk | Risk management activities | ISO 31000 | Software life cycle processes | ISO 12207 | Systematic literature review
Financing coastal resilience by combining nature-based risk reduction with insurance
تأمین اعتبار انعطاف پذیری ساحلی با ترکیب ریسک مبتنی بر طبیعت و بیمه-2020
The increasing impacts of climate hazards combined with the loss of coastal habitats require urgent solutions to manage risk. Storm losses continue to grow and much of them are uninsured. These losses represent an increasing burden to individuals, businesses, and can jeopardize national development goals. Pre-hazard mitigation is cost effective, but both the public and private sector struggle to finance up-front investments in it. This article explores a resilience solution that combines risk transfer (e.g., insurance) with risk reduction (e.g., hazard mitigation), which have often been treated as two separate mechanisms for disaster risk management. The combined mechanism could help align environmental and risk management goals and create opportunities for public and private investment in nature-based projects. We assessed this resilience insurance with hypothetical cases for coral reef restoration. Under conservative assumptions, 44% of the initial reef restoration costs would be covered just by insurance premium reductions in the first 5 years, with benefits amounting>6 times the total costs over 25 years. We also test the sensitivity to key factors such as project cost, risk reduction potential, insurance structure, economic exposure and discount rates. The resilience insurance mechanism is applicable to many coastlines and can help finance nature-based adaptation.
Keyword: Resilience insurance
Big data analytics for supply chain relationship in banking
تجزیه و تحلیل داده های بزرگ برای رابطه زنجیره تأمین در بانکداری-2020
This paper reports how a commercial bank in Asia uses big data analytic as a tool to explore the internal B2B data to improve supply chain finance and the efficiency of marketing tactics and campaigns. A case study was conducted by analyzing two types of supply chain relationships: (1) supply chain relationships in the credit reports; (2) e-wiring transactions among supply chain companies. The results show that big data analytics is very useful in terms of improving the commercial banks marketing and risk management performances. The case study also set a good example for B2B firms seeking to understand how they could leverage big data analytics to differentiate customer solutions, sustain profitability and generate new business values. Theorical and practical implications are also discussed.
Keywords: Supply chain finance | B2B analytics
The synergy between human factors and risk attitudes of Malaysian contractors’: Moderating effect of government policy
هم افزایی بین عوامل انسانی و نگرش ریسک از پیمانکاران مالزی: اثر تعدیل کننده سیاست دولت-2020
Many critical factors influence the effectiveness of risk management. There is unanimity among project and risk practitioners about the most significant factor responsible for risk management: “human factors”. As human attitude is always reflected in behaviour, there is a high possibility that a contractors behaviour will be by the attitude. Therefore, this study aims to identify the factors affecting contractors risk attitudes and then determine the relationship with government policy. A total of 100 copies of questionnaire were randomly distributed to the construction companies in Kuantan Malaysia. Out of the 100 copies of the questionnaire distributed, 69 copies were received indicating 72.6% response rate. Thirteen (13) copies of the questionnaire were found to be unusable due to missing data or errors in the responses to all the questions. Thus, 56 copies of the questionnaire, indicating 58.9% response rate, were usable. Moreover, with quantitative research design following the positivist research paradigm, the methodology was designed to focus on the research questions and the objectives. Organizational Control Theory was used to develop the theoretical framework that investigated G-7 contractors in the Kuantan Pahang, Malaysian construction companies. SPSS 20.0 & SmartPLS 3 for structural equation modelling was utilized in testing the hypotheses developed for the study. Government policy moderates the relationships between the internal factors and contractors risk attitudes among the construction companies operating in Kuantan, Malaysia. This implies that the findings of the study provides more understanding of the personal factors that affect contractors risk attitudes to facilitate contractors decision-making process. It also serves as a useful reference for further studies in the field of construction project management.
Keywords: Contractors risk attitude | Risk attitude | Organizational control theory | Government policies | Personal factors | PLS-SEM