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1 |
Customized risk assessment in military shipbuilding
ارزیابی ریسک سفارشی در کشتی سازی ارتش-2020 This paper describes a customized risk assessment framework to be applied in military shipbuilding projects. The
framework incorporates the Delphi method with visual diagrams, Bayesian Networks (BN) and the expression of
expert opinions through linguistic variables. Noisy-OR and Leak Canonical models are used to determine the
conditional probabilities of the BN model. The approach can easily be adapted for other shipbuilding construction
projects. The visual diagrams that support the Delphi questionnaire favor the comprehensive visualization
of the interdependencies between risks, causes, risks and causes, and risks and effects. The applicability of
the framework is illustrated through the assessment of risk of two real military shipbuilding projects. This
assessment includes a sensitivity analysis that is useful to prioritize mitigation actions. In the two cases studies,
the risks with higher probability of occurrence were failures or errors in production, of the contracted, in the
requirements, and in planning. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that a set of mitigation actions
directed at relatively easily controllable causes would have achieved important reductions in risk probabilities Keywords: Project management | Shipbuilding projects | Risk network model | Delph | iBayesian network |
مقاله انگلیسی |
2 |
Data-driven safety enhancing strategies for risk networks in construction engineering
راهبردهای افزایش ایمنی داده محور برای شبکه های ریسک در مهندسی ساخت -2020 Risk management is crucial and indispensable to the success of projects, while identifying critical risks is the
fundamental step in devising the corresponding safety measures. To fully exploit the value of richly accumulated
accidental cases, this paper presents a data-driven research framework for proposing effective safety enhancing
strategies based on risk networks in construction engineering, spanning the whole process from extracting accident
chains from accidents to construct a risk network to devising safety measures. Aiming at the weighted
heterogeneity of the risk network, both the performance metrics at network level and critical-risk identification
metrics at node level are deliberately designed. These metrics then enable the proposing of a series of safetyenhancing
strategies. In the case study, based on the accident-related data in China’s bridge-and-tunnel hybrid
projects, different safety-enhancing strategies are compared through simulation experiments and analyzed to
verify their effectiveness on optimizing costs and improving safety. Finally, based on results from simulations,
relevant managerial suggestions are proposed. Keywords: Safety enhancing strategies | Risk network | Data-driven | Construction engineering |
مقاله انگلیسی |
3 |
A knowledge-based expert system to assess power plant project cost overrun risks
یک سیستم خبره مبتنی بر دانش برای ارزیابی هزینه ریسک بیش ازحد پروژه نیروگاهی-2019 Preventing cost overruns of such infrastructure projects as power plants is a global project management problem. The existing risk assessment methods/models have limitations to address the complicated na- ture of these projects, incorporate the probabilistic causal relationships of the risks and probabilistic data for risk assessment, by taking into account the domain experts’ judgments, subjectivity, and un- certainty involved in their judgments in the decision making process. A knowledge-based expert system is presented to address this issue, using a fuzzy canonical model (FCM) that integrates the fuzzy group decision-making approach (FGDMA) and the Canonical model ( i.e. a modified Bayesian belief network model) . The FCM overcomes: (a) the subjectivity and uncertainty involved in domain experts’ judgment, (b) sig- nificantly reduces the time and effort needed for the domain experts in eliciting conditional probabilities of the risks involved in complex risk networks, and (c) reduces the model development tasks, which also reduces the computational load on the model. This approach advances the applications of fuzzy-Bayesian models for cost overrun risks assessment in a complex and uncertain project environment by addressing the major constraints associated with such models. A case study demonstrates and tests the application of the model for cost overrun risk assessment in the construction and commissioning phase of a power plant project, confirming its ability to pinpoint the most critical risks involved ̶ in this case, the complex- ity of the lifting and rigging heavy equipment, inadequate work inspection and testing plan, inadequate site/soil investigation, unavailability of the resources in the local market, and the contractor’s poor plan- ning and scheduling. Keywords: Cost overruns | Risk assessment | Power plant projects | Fuzzy logic | Canonical model |
مقاله انگلیسی |
4 |
Exploring dependency based probabilistic supply chain risk measures for prioritising interdependent risks and strategies
بررسی اقدامات ریسک وابستگی بر اساس زنجیره تامین احتمالاتی برای اولویت بندی ریسک های وابسته و استراتژی-2017 In this paper, we introduce an integrated supply chain risk management process that is grounded in
the theoretical framework of Bayesian Belief Networks capturing interdependency between risks and risk
mitigation strategies, and integrating all stages of the risk management process. The proposed process
is unique in four different ways: instead of mapping the supply network, it makes use of Failure Modes
and Effects Analysis to model the risk network which is feasible for modelling global supply chains; it
is driven by new dependency based risk measures that can effectively capture the network wide impact
of risks for prioritisation; it utilises the concept of Shapley value from the field of cooperative game
theory to determine a fair allocation of resources to the critical risks identified; and the process helps
in prioritising potential risk mitigation strategies (both preventive and reactive) subject to budget and
resource constraints. We demonstrate its application through a simulation study.
Keywords: Supply chain risk management | Bayesian Belief Networks | Failure Modes and Effects Analysis |Risk measures | Risk mitigation strategies |
مقاله انگلیسی |