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نتیجه جستجو - Shocks

تعداد مقالات یافته شده: 91
ردیف عنوان نوع
1 Degree of sustainability of current account: evidence from Cote d ^ ’Ivoire using a non-linear approach
درجه پایداری حساب جاری: شواهد از ساحل عاج با استفاده از رویکرد غیر خطی-2021
The current account deficit is a macroeconomic indicator that provides information on the health of an economy. Its sustainability is particularly crucial for developing countries such as Cote dIvoire, one of the largest economies ^ in West Africa. Given the countrys exposure to external vulnerability, this paper analysed the degree of sustainability of its current account. Beyond this, the study looked at the resilience of the economy to external shocks by examining how exports behave following an asymmetric shock on imports plus interest on external borrowing. To this end, the model developed by Shin et al. (2014) was applied to the intertemporal approach to current account sustainability using quarterly macroeconomic data from 1985q1 to 2017q4. The study found that Cote ^ dIvoires current account balance is sustainable. However, this sustainability is weak in the sense of Hakkio and Rush (1991), thus leading to a high risk of government failure in this respect. Also, the study shows that exports react differently to asymmetric shocks on increased imports, with a return to equilibrium often very slow. Therefore, the strengthening and stability of the socio-political environment is to be encouraged, as well as the implementation of policies aimed at sound public finance management and minimising the economys vulnerability to external shocks
keywords: پایداری قوی یا ضعیف | حساب جاری | همخوانی | عدم تقارن | نر | Strong or weak sustainability | Current account | Cointegration | Asymmetry | NARDL
مقاله انگلیسی
2 Preliminary lessons from COVID-19 disruptions of small-scale fishery supply chains
دروس مقدماتی مربوط به اختلالات COVID-19 در زنجیره های تامین شیلات در مقیاس کوچک-2021
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and associated mitigation measures have disrupted global systems that support the health, food and nutrition security, and livelihoods of billions of people. These disruptions have likewise affected the small-scale fishery (SSF) sector, disrupting SSF supply chains and exposing weaknesses in the global seafood distribution system. To inform future development of adaptive capacity and resilience in the sector, it is important to understand how supply chain actors are responding in the face of a macroeconomic shock. Comparing across seven SSF case studies in four countries, we explore how actors are responding to COVID-19 disruptions, identify constraints to adaptive responses, and describe patterns of disruption and response across cases. In all cases examined, actors shifted focus to local and regional distribution channels and particularly drew on flexibility, organization, and learning to re-purpose pre-existing networks and use technology to their advantage. Key constraints to reaching domestic consumers included domestic restrictions on movement and labor, reduced spending power amongst domestic consumers, and lack of existing distribution channels. In addition, the lack of recogni- tion of SSFs as essential food-producers and inequities in access to technology hampered efforts to continue local seafood supply. We suggest that the initial impacts from COVID-19 highlight the risks in of over-reliance on global trade networks. The SSFs that were able to change strategies most success- fully had local organizations and connections in place that they leveraged in innovative ways. As such, supporting local and domestic networks and flexible organizations within the supply chain may help build resilience in the face of future macroeconomic shocks. Importantly, bolstering financial wellbeing and security within the domestic market both before and during such large-scale disruptions is crucial for supporting ongoing supply chain operations and continued food provision during macroeconomic crises.
Keywords: Small-scale fisheries | COVID-19 | Adaptive capacity | Supply chain | Resilience | Global seafood distribution system
مقاله انگلیسی
3 Persistent current account imbalances: Are they good or bad for regional and global growth?
عدم تعادل حساب جاری مداوم: آیا آنها برای رشد منطقه ای و جهانی خوب یا بد هستند؟-2021
This paper examines the regional and global growth effects of current account imbalances in Japan, Germany, and the People’s Republic of China (PRC)—the three largest persistent surplus countries—and the United States and United Kingdom, the two largest persistent deficit countries. Controlling for a set of macroeconomic determinants, we use a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework to show that positive shocks to current account balances in the PRC, Germany, and Japan transmit positive regional and global growth effects, particularly in the case of spillovers to regional growth from Japan. As expected, the global growth response is lower in magnitude than the regional growth response. In addition, the extent of the effect is amplified by global value chains, pointing to the significant role played by trade in intermediate goods. For current account deficit countries, the magnitudes of the responses of growth to shocks are much lower on average than in the case of current account surplus countries. We find some marginal positive effects on regional and global growth emanating from a positive shock on the UK current account—i.e., a reduction in the deficit. For the US, a positive shock to its persistent current account deficit marginally drags on global growth, possibly reflecting declining import demand and wealth effects linked to the US dollar’s status as the global reserve currency. Our findings have important policy implications, particularly in light of discussions in recent years on whether current account surplus countries are hindering growth abroad.
keywords: عدم تعادل حساب جاری | عدم تعادل اقتصاد کلان | رشد اقتصادی | Current account imbalances | Macroeconomic imbalances | Economic growth
مقاله انگلیسی
4 The corporate saving glut and the current account in Germany
GLUT صرفه جویی در شرکت و حساب جاری در آلمان-2021
We investigate, in the case of Germany, the positive correlation between the cyclical components of the corporate saving glut in the non-financial corporate sector and the current account surplus from a capital account perspective. Employing sign restrictions, our findings suggest that mostly labor supply, world demand and financial friction shocks account for the joint dynamics of excess corporate saving and the current account surplus. Household saving shocks, by contrast, cannot explain the correlation. We conclude that, explained through these factors, the corporate saving glut is an important driver of the cyclical component of the current account.
keywords: حساب جاری | صرفه جویی در شرکت | شوک های ماکرو | Current account | Corporate saving | Macro shocks
مقاله انگلیسی
5 COVID-19 impacts on Flemish food supply chains and lessons for agri-food system resilience
تأثیرات COVID-19 بر روی زنجیره های تأمین مواد غذایی فلاندی و درس هایی برای انعطاف پذیری سیستم کشاورزی-غذایی-2021
Context: Resilience represents the ability of systems to anticipate, withstand, or adapt to challenges. Times of great stress and disturbance offer opportunity to identify and confirm key contributors to agri-food system resilience. The COVID-19 pandemic and its related consequences constituted major shock, challenging the resilience of many agri-food systems worldwide.
Objective: This paper aimed to report the immediate effects of the COVID-19 crisis on various key actors from Flemish food supply chains. By analysing and assessing the observed impacts of and reactions to this crisis from a resilience perspective, it also aimed to gain empirical evidence on resilience-enhancing characteristics of agri-food systems to sudden shocks.
Methods: A first, quantitative step of our mixed method approach measured 718 farmers’ experienced impacts and applied strategies following the crisis through an online survey. A second, qualitative step captured impacts and responses from other key actors downstream the food supply chain through 22 in-depth interviews and 18 on-line questionnaires. Data gathering and interpretation followed a conceptual framework for analysing resilience of agri-food systems to external challenges, that we developed based on the literature. The framework states that resilience actions stem from three types of resilience capacities: anticipatory, coping and responsive capacities. These are determined by both resources allocated by system actors, as well as by resilience attributes from the system.
Results and conclusions: The COVID-19 crisis induced a simultaneous dropped demand for food products in the hospitality industry and risen demand in retail. This shifted demand significantly disturbed food production, processing and marketing processes in terms of labour organization, planning, operation, logistics, and economic returns. Perceived impacts varied extensively across actors from the agri-food system, mostly depending on their marketing strategy, customer base, and flexibility and diversity of their practices. Reported reactions to this crisis revealed that resilience capacities varied according to actors’ abilities to negotiate prices, adjust production processes, and maintain or reorient sales. Some agri-food sectors showed higher responsive capacity because of a higher connectivity and self-organization within the system.
Significance: Our findings suggest that flexibility and diversity, despite their tendency to diminish price optimums, increase resilience capacities, which may be more beneficial to systems for thriving in turbulent and uncertain environments. A more tangible, operationalized understanding of resilience is necessary to effectively improve agri-food system resilience. Our conceptual framework proved a valuable tool for operationalizing resilience assessments to major shocks.
Keywords: COVID-19 | Farmers | Resilience | Shocks | Agri-food system | Food supply chain
مقاله انگلیسی
6 Has tourism influenced Indonesia’s current account?
آیا گردشگری بر حساب جاری اندونزی تأثیر گذاشته است؟-2021
In this paper we study the role of tourism in explaining Indonesia’s current account balance. We extend the conventional model of current account determinants by augmenting it with tourism (visitor arrivals) and expected and unexpected tourism shocks, where tourism shocks are akin to income shocks. We show that expected and unexpected positive tourism shocks improve Indonesia’s current account balance, particularly in the most recent period (2010Q1–2017Q4). Equally importantly, our empirical investigation shows that the current account reacts asymmetrically to positive tourism shocks. In other words, expected tourism shocks worsen the current account when it is already in deficit and improve it when it is in surplus. Finally, we show that an unexpected tourism shock improves the account balance, regardless of whether the account is in deficit or surplus.
keywords: حساب جاری | بازدید کنندگان بازدید کننده | شوک | اندونزی | Current account | Visitor arrivals | Shocks | Indonesia
مقاله انگلیسی
7 The relation between growth, energy imports, militarization and current account balance in China, Israel and South Korea
رابطه بین رشد، واردات انرژی، نظامی سازی و تعادل حساب جاری در چین، اسرائیل و کره جنوبی-2021
This paper tested the relation among macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, current account balance, energy imports and non-economic variable as militarization for the selected countries by employing Markov Switching-Bayesian Vector Auto Regressive approach for China, Israel and South Korea. These countries have high rate of export and import of weapons, the current account surplus, and higher rate of energy imports. The results showed that the relation between the selected variables differs in these countries with respect to their energy and weapon import levels. According to MarkovSwitching Bayesian Granger Causality results, if the governments determine the polices in the context of the results of the traditional causality test, it will be impossible to obtain the estimated impacts from the policies. Results determined that Militarization, energy imports, economic growth and current account balance relate to each other for all countries. Energy imports increase in the effect of militarization races and economic growth. The current account of the selected countries are vulnerable to the negative energy shocks and militarization.
keywords: نظامی سازی | تعادل حساب جاری | واردات انرژی | Militarization | Current account balance | Energy imports | MSBVAR | MSBGC
مقاله انگلیسی
8 An agent-based model for supply chain recovery in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic
An agent-based model for supply chain recovery in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic-2021
The current COVID-19 pandemic has hugely disrupted supply chains (SCs) in different sectors globally. The global demand for many essential items (e.g., facemasks, food products) has been phenomenal, resulting in supply failure. SCs could not keep up with the shortage of raw materials, and manufacturing firms could not ramp up their production capacity to meet these unparalleled demand levels. This study aimed to examine a set of congruent strategies and recovery plans to minimize the cost and maximize the availability of essential items to respond to global SC disruptions. We used facemask SCs as an example and simulated the current state of its supply and demand using the agent-based modeling method. We proposed two main recovery strategies relevant to building emergency supply and extra manufacturing capacity to mitigate SC disruptions. Our findings revealed that minimizing the risk response time and maximizing the production capacity helped essential item manufacturers meet consumers’ skyrocketing demands and timely supply to consumers, reducing financial shocks to firms. Our study suggested that delayed implementation of the proposed recovery strategies could lead to supply, demand, and financial shocks for essential item manufacturers. This study scrutinized strategies to mitigate the demand–supply crisis of essential items. It further proposed congruent strategies and recovery plans to alleviate the problem in the exceptional disruptive event caused by COVID-19.
Keywords: Risk and disruption | COVID-19 pandemic | Supply chain resilience | Essential item | Recovery strategy
مقاله انگلیسی
9 The lived reality of public accounting interns
واقعیت زندگی کارآموزان حسابداری عمومی-2021
This study examines the lived reality of public accounting interns, including perceived benefits, costs, and competing frictions that are collectively relevant to the norms and social structures in this labor market. Our evidence suggests that benefits include knowledge acquisition for interns and readily available labor for firms. Costs include ethical dilemmas, pressures to conform, reality shocks, and shared suffering for interns, along with training investments and turnover for firms. Labor market frictions include variation in perceptions of success versus failure for interns, coupled with sustainability implications for the hiring model of firms. Reflecting on the mutuality of these labor market attributes, we present evidence on the consequences for both individuals and the profession. To do so, we collect survey evidence from 257 students who completed a ‘busy-season’ internship in the semester immediately prior to embarking on their Masters of Accountancy (MACC) program (January-April of 2014, 2015 and 2016). After reflecting on insights from that evidence, we then interviewed another 30 MACC students who had returned from their internships following the busy season of 2017 to gain in-depth qualitative evidence about the ‘lived reality’ of the internship experience, focusing on insights about anticipatory socialization, formative experiences and assimilation, along with differential expressions of both success and painful instances of failure. Our study provides details on a replicable internship model that has been sustainable for over 20 years at the University of Wisconsin – Madison, and represents a detailed example relevant to understanding the apprenticeship model of public accounting.
keywords: مدل کارآموزی | ادغام | حرفه حسابداری عمومی | تحقیقات کیفی فیلد | ساختارهای اجتماعی | Apprenticeship model | Assimilation | Public accounting profession | Qualitative field research | Social structures
مقاله انگلیسی
10 The US current account, sustainability, and the international monetary system
حساب جاری ایالات متحده، پایداری و سیستم پولی بین المللی-2021
In this paper, we examine the sources of the US current account imbalances and discuss the role of the international monetary system in enabling the US in carrying such external deficits. There is evidence that the stochastic properties of the US current account are not compatible with the intertemporal national budget constraint. We argue that this is likely to be related to the dominant role of the U.S. dollar as an international reserve asset, which allows the US to meet international demand for safe assets and allows borrowing at very low interest rates. Results from a structural VAR model indicate that temporary shocks dominate the current account in the short run, whereas domestic permanent supply shocks and preference shocks contribute significantly to US current account movements in the long run. To the extent that temporary shocks stem from aggregate demand, stabilizing aggregate demand is important in achieving long-term sustainability in the current account. Finally, the paper discusses the role of the international financial system and the international role of the U.S. dollar in contributing to US external imbalances.
keywords: تنظیم بین المللی | سیستم پولی بین المللی | ذخیره ارز | تعادل تجارت ایالات متحده | International adjustment | International monetary system | Reserve currency | US trade balance
مقاله انگلیسی
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