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Predicted direct solar radiation (ECMWF) for optimized operational strategies of linear focus parabolic-trough systems
تابش مستقیم خورشیدی پیش بینی شده (ECMWF) برای استراتژی های عملیاتی بهینه شده سیستم های سهموی-تمرکز خطی -2020 Day-ahead forecasts of direct normal irradiance (DNI) from the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), the
global model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), are used to
simulate a concentrating solar power (CSP) plant through the System Advisor Model (SAM) to assess the
potential value of the IFS in the electricity market. Although DNI forecasting from the IFS still demands
advances towards cloud and aerosol representation, present results show substantial improvements with
the new operational radiative scheme ecRad (cycle 43R3). A relative difference of approximately 0.12% for
the total annual energy availability is found between forecasts and local measurements, while approximately
10.6% is obtained for the previous version. Results of electric energy injection to the grid from a
simulated linear focus parabolic-trough system shows correlations coefficients of approximately 0.87
between hourly values of electric energy based on forecasted and measured DNI, while 0.92 are obtained
for the daily values. In the context of control strategy, four operational strategies are given for different
weather scenarios to handle the energy management of a CSP plant, including the effect of thermal
energy storage capacity. Charge and discharge operational strategies are applied accordingly to the
predicted energy availability. Keywords: Short-term forecasts | ECMWF | Direct normal irradiance | Concentrating solar power | System advisor model | Operational strategies |
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