The dynamic linkages between current account deficit and budget balance deficit in the South Asian region
ارتباط پویا بین کسری حساب جاری و کسری تراز بودجه در منطقه جنوب آسیا-2021
The issue of twin imbalances is at the forefront of fiscal policy concerns in the South Asian region, fuelled by an ever-going budget deficit and current account deficit over the last five decades. A standard approach is to assume a model in which budget balance influences the current account. We relax this assumption by using a panel data vector autoregression model comprising five South Asian countries. The results show that both budget deficit and current account deficit are mutually causative, which contrasts the unidirectional causality running from fiscal deficit to current account deficit found in prior studies. Further, this bi-causality relationship is also demonstrated in the impulse response analyses. Budget balance in South Asian economies re- sponds positively to a one standard deviation positive shock in the current account balance. Likewise, external balance increases to a one standard deviation positive shock in internal bal- ance. Higher fiscal debt impedes economic growth, which in turn impacts negatively on the budget balance. Our findings lead us to reject ’fiscal policy only’ recommendations to address the twin deficits.
keywords: کسری دوقلو | مدل P-VAR | آزمون علیت پانل گرنجر | تابع پاسخ ضربه ای | آسیای جنوبی | Twin deficits | P-VAR model | Panel Granger causality test | Impulse response function | South Asia
Integration of unified theory of acceptance and use of technology in internet banking adoption setting: Evidence from Pakistan
تجمیع تئوری یکپارچه پذیرش و استفاده از فناوری در زمینه پذیرش بانکداری اینترنتی: شواهدی از پاکستان-2019
The banking sector has evolved in information technology for their internal and external business operations. In effect, user acceptance of internet banking is considered as one of the most fundamental issue in banking sector. In order to identify which factors affect user intention to adopt internet banking, this study develops an amalgamated model based on technology and social psychological literature. The research model was empirically tested using 398 responses from customers of commercial banks. Data was analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM). The results of this study provided theoretical and empirical support for newly developed integrated model. Importance performance matrix analysis (IPMA) revealed that assurance is the most influential factor among all others to determine users intention to adopt internet banking. These findings provide valuable insight to marketers and managers to understand customer behavior towards adoption of technology, especially in emerging e-payment domain. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that investigates internet banking adoption issues with integrated technology model (UTAUT & E-SQ) in South Asia. Finally the study calls for researchers to use current integrated model in other e-commerce domains such as online shopping websites to establish the external validity of the model.
Keywords: Unified theory of acceptance and use of | technology (UTAUT) | E-Service quality (E-SQ) | Internet banking adoption |Integration | Structural equation modeling (SEM)
A Review of Policies concerning development of Big Data Industry in Pakistan
بررسی سیاست های مربوط به توسعه صنعت داده های بزرگ در پاکستان-2018
This In the present globalized smart ecosystem, various suggestions of using data as a new tool for the development of the economy are still going on to be presented. Hence, developed countries are trying to pursue different policy measures to develop the big data industry, including promoting big data R&D sector and investment in human resources to retain the pace of this global trend. The government of Pakistan has supported liberal policies to activate the IT its applications such as big data, Internet of Things (IOT) and electronic government (e-government). We used the Analytic Network Process (ANP) model to prioritize policy measures and find out its implications for Pakistan. This study will convey an important lesson for developing countries and particularly for South Asian countries to establish policies for developing big data as a new tool for economic growth in the context of smart ecosystem environment.
Keywords: Big data; Internet of things; IOT; Analytic network process; Ecosystem
Potential benefits of drought and heat tolerance for adapting maize to climate change in tropical environments
منافع بالقوه خشکسالی و حد گرما برای سازگاری ذرت با تغییرات آب و هوایی در محیط های گرمسیری-2018
Climate change and population growth pose great challenges to the food security of the millions of people who grow maize in the already fragile agricultural systems in tropical environments. There is an urgent need for maize varieties that are both drought and heat tolerant given the already prevailing drought and heat stress levels in many tropical environments, which are set to exacerbate with climate change. In this study, the crop growth simulation model for maize (CERES-Maize) was used to quantify the impact of climate change on maize and the potential benefits of incorporating drought and heat tolerance into the commonly grown (benchmark) maize varieties at six sites in Eastern and Southern Africa and one site in South Asia. Simulation results indicate that climate change will have a negative impact on maize yield at all the sites studied but the degree of the impact varies with location, level of warming and rainfall changes. Combined hotter and drier climate change scenarios (involving increases in warming with a reduction in rainfall) resulted in greater average simulated maize yield reduction (21, 33 and 50% under 1, 2 and 4 °C warming, respectively) than hotter only climate change scenarios (11, 21 and 41%, respectively). Incorporating drought, heat and combined drought & heat tolerance into benchmark varieties increased simulated maize yield under both the baseline and future climates. The average simulated benefit from combined drought & heat tolerance was at least twice that of heat or drought tolerance and it increased with the increase in warming levels. The magnitude of the simulated benefits from drought tolerance, heat tolerance and combined drought & heat tolerance and potential acceptability of the varieties by farmers varied across sites and climate scenarios indicating the need for proper targeting of varieties where they fit best and benefit most. It is concluded that incorporating drought and heat tolerance into maize germplasm has the potential to offset predicted yield losses and sustain maize productivity under climate change in vulnerable sites.
keywords: Climate change |Maize |Drought tolerance |Heat tolerance |Tropical environments
Energy management in South Asia
مدیریت انرژی در جنوب آسیا-2018
In this era, energy is essential to life and its continuous and ubiquitous supply brings much needed economic growth and prosperity to a region. Energy Management (EnM) contributes to the controlling and monitoring of energy and has recently become the subject of great significance. EnM involves analysis, conservation and imperative actions that leads to the minimization of the system losses for efficient use of available conventional and renewable energy resources of the region. This study evaluates the energy management in South Asia (SA) region, as it houses one-fourth of the worlds total population with India, Pakistan and Bangladesh being the most populous countries. The study accesses the regional energy mix, distributed generation strategy plans, and present the trends in EnM over the past few decades. South Asian Countries (SACs), especially Pakistan, India and Bangladesh have a huge potential of coal i.e. 17,550, 90,085 and 884 Million Tonnes, respectively. India has rightly explored nearly 70% of its coal potential, whereas Pakistan and Bangladesh despite having the largest potential of the coal have focused on oil (35.4%) and natural gas (91.5%) exploration respectively. It is im portant to note that India experiences the highest technical losses of 23.5%, followed by 17% percent and 14.11% losses by Pakistan and Bangladesh respectively. Energy Intensity (EI) values for Afghanistan, Bhutan and Sri Lanka have listed these countries as low EI terrain region. Pakistan, India and Bangladesh have EI values ranging between 10,000 and 20,000 btu per $2000 constant. SACs countries have monopolistic electricity markets, however steps are taken to partially implement competition and monopoly regulation by privatization and ensuring equal conditions for all vendors. Analysis show that the SACs are presently far behind to meet their energy demands. The paper also recommends introduction and implementation of effective EnM policies along with large scale utilization of non-conventional energy resources, which will bring necessary changes and will help SACs to overcome economic challenges. The study also concludes that the inclusion of renewable energy resources and development of competitive electricity markets would overall improve the EnM in SA.
Keywords: South Asia ، Energy management ، Energy market ، Energy policies ، Energy mix
Family versus school effect on individual religiosity: Evidence from Pakistan
تاثیر خانواده دربرابر مدرسه روی مذهبی بودن فرد: شواهدی از پاکستان-2018
This paper presents an empirical analysis of the impact of school type on students’ levels of religiosity. We use a new dataset on female students of registered madrasas (Islamic schools) and secular schools from urban parts of Pakistan. On most counts of religious behavior the students from the two groups record broadly similar results. However, our probit analysis shows that when we control for students’ socio-economic profile and attitudes, on few counts of religiosity madrasa effect does emerge but it disappears as soon as we control for parental level of education. Our findings support the hypothesis that parental education, especially mother’s education, is key to modernising religious and cultural norms in conservative societies.
keywords: Madrasa and secular schools |Mother’s education |Religious belief |Practical faith |Pakistan |South asia
Nominal uncertainty, real uncertainty and macroeconomic performance in a time-varying asymmetric framework_ Implications for monetary policy
عدم اطمینان اسمی ، عدم اطمینان واقعی و عملکرد اقتصادی کلان در یک چارچوب نامتقارن متغیر زمان- پیامدهای سیاست پولی-2017
This study examines the dynamic causal links and volatility spillovers of inflation, output growth and their uncertainties in four South Asian countries, namely, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka by utilizing asymmetric GARCH family models. Our empirical evidence supports a number of important conclusions. There is an overwhelming support for Friedman-Ball hypothesis of positive inflation-uncertainty trade-off for all countries excluding India and Sri Lanka. The Cukierman-Meltzer’s idea that inflation uncertainty generates inflation, hold for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka only and the Holland’s hypothesis of negative influence of inflation uncertainty on level inflation is supported by India only. The positive influence of output uncertainty on inflation (Devereux (1989) hypothesis) is supported by all countries excluding Bangladesh while nominal uncertainty (real uncertainty) has negative (positive) effect on output growth in Pakistan (Bangladesh). Output growth is reducing real uncertainty in all countries excluding Sri Lanka and nominal uncertainty in Pakistan only. There is significant negative relationship between inflation and output growth for Pakistan only while real uncertainty is positively (negatively) related with nominal uncertainty in India (Bangladesh). The estimated results are almost robust with the simultaneous estimation procedure for testing the main hypotheses. In general, there is asym metric effect and persistence of the GARCH parameters for all countries. The study suggests that the concerned central banks should pay more attention to the effects of macroeconomic un certainty and should focus their monetary policy strategy on stabilizing both output growth and inflation.
Keywords: Inflation | Output growth | Inflation uncertainty | Output uncertainty | South Asia
Troubling Tradition, Community, and Self-Reliance: Reframing Expectations for Village Seed Banks
سنت، جامعه، و اعتماد به نفس: انتظارات قاب بندی مجدد برای بانک های بذر روستایی-2017
Heralded by both food sovereignty activists and mainstream development practitioners, village seed banks are a rural development phenomenon rapidly gaining attention for their potential to support resilient agricultural systems. This paper presents a case study for examining the power of prevailing narratives of decentralized development to shape and ultimately constrain the operations of village seed banks in Telangana, India. This case demonstrates how visions of tradition, community, and self-reliance can serve to discount the materiality of seeds, the social complexity of village institutions, and even the voices of farmers. The goal of this research is not to criticize village seed banks, as they hold great potential, nor to vilify the narratives in question, but rather to encourage critical reflection on how the assumptions embedded in these narratives shape mechanisms for agricultural development. I argue for a shift away from framing tradition, community, and self-reliance as development solutions and propose an interrogative approach that turns these narratives into questions for engaging more effectively with rural livelihoods.
Key words : seed banks | rainfed agriculture | narrative | decentralization | South Asia | India
Factors Affecting Drug Use During Incarceration: A Cross-Sectional Study of Opioid-Dependent Persons from India
عوامل موثر بر مصرف مواد مخدر در طول دوران حبس: یک مطالعه مقطعی افراد وابسته به مواد افیونی از هند-2016
Introduction: Substance abuse and criminality share a complex relationship. The rates of substance use among the prisoners, and that of criminal acts among substance users in community setting are high. Data from South Asian countries, including from India are inadequate. This study aimed to assess the pattern of criminal acts among opioid-dependent subjects and their substance use pattern in the month before, during and after imprisonment. Methods: Using a cross-sectional study design and purposive sampling, opioid-dependent subjects (n = 101) attending two community drug treatment clinics who have had any contact with the law were assessed using a specifically-designed tool to record criminal acts and substance use before, during and after last imprisonment. Results: Most subjects (93%) had committed illegal acts in their lifetime. Physical assault was the most common illegal act, while 23% reported selling drugs and 9% reported committing serious crimes. About 95% were arrested and 92% had spent time in police lockups. About 29% were arrested for drugs possession or drug use, and 3% of injecting drug users arrested for carrying injection equipment. About 85% had been imprisoned at least once, of whom 88% used psychoactive substances in the 1-month period before their last imprisonment. Opioids were the most common substances used daily (68%), followed by cannabis (34%) and alcohol (22%). Ninetyseven percent reported the availability of substances in prisons, and 65% also used substances during their last imprisonment. Cannabis (35%) was the most common substances used in prison followed by opioids (19%). Seventy-six percent used substances soon after prison release, and 13% of opioid users experienced opioid overdose soon after prison release. Use of cannabis, injecting drugs, and opioid use before imprisonment were predictors of substance use in prison. Conclusion: Opioid-dependent people have various contacts with the law, including imprisonment. Many users are dependent on substances during prison-entry, which is an important reason for their continued substance use in prisons. There is a need to provide substance abuse treatment across all stages of criminal justice system.
Keywords: Criminality | Opioid-dependence | Incarceration