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نتیجه جستجو - Uncertain demand

تعداد مقالات یافته شده: 15
ردیف عنوان نوع
1 A hybrid modeling approach for green and sustainable closed-loop supply chain considering price, advertisement and uncertain demands
یک روش مدل سازی ترکیبی برای زنجیره تامین حلقه بسته سبز و پایدار با در نظر گرفتن قیمت ، تبلیغات و تقاضاهای نامشخص-2021
The closed-loop supply chain network design (CLSCND) has garnered a lot of attention since it can handle economic and environmental issues. Likewise, supply chain coordination (SCC) tools can play an important role in enhancing the performance of the supply chains. This paper proposes a new hybrid method, in which SCC decisions and CLSCND objectives are simultaneously involved. First, this approach makes price, greenness, and advertisement decisions, and then it aims at maximizing profit and minimizing CO2 emission. A new nonlinear programming (NLP) model is developed based on the sensitivity of the return rate to green quality and the customers’ maximum tolerance, while the demands are uncertain. In order to overcome the uncertain demands, a robust optimization (RO) model is used. A Lagrangian relaxation algorithm is also employed to solve large-scale instances in a logical running time. The applicability of the proposed approach is corroborated through several examples. The results indicate an improvement in the performance of economic and environmental objectives under greening and advertising decisions. Furthermore, the proposed RO model outperforms the model that does not consider a robust approach.
Keywords: Closed-loop supply chain | Supply chain coordination | Supply chain network design | Robust optimization | Lagrangian relaxation | Uncertain demand
مقاله انگلیسی
2 A stochastic model for developing speculation-postponement strategies and modularization concepts in the global supply chain with demand uncertainty
یک مدل تصادفی برای توسعه استراتژی های حدس و تعویق و مفاهیم تعدیل در زنجیره تأمین جهانی با عدم اطمینان تقاضا-2021
Modern business traits have resorted companies to the global scale and complex supply chain operations to fulfill the customer demand around the world. In doing so, companies have to anticipate volatile and uncertain global demand, while adjusting their supply chain operations to various regional difference risks. Addressing these issues has motivated our study to propose a two-stage stochastic model of a supply chain network (SCN) design integrated to postponement and modularization concepts. The proposed research considers multi-period planning, involving procurement, processing, and sales of a multi-variant product with modular product architecture to model the operations in the supply chain network. The configuration of this comprehensive SCN is integrated to postponement strategy that is adjusted to speculation strategy, accommodating both forecast and demand- driven operations. The speculation-postponement strategy allows the optimization of the forecast-driven speculation strategy operations planning and service level of multiple items with varying value and variances, as well as the postponement strategy operations to be all adjusted to both global demand uncertainty and regional differences factors. The complexity of the model leads to the usage of the sample average approximation method to yield a reliable solution efficiently. The results of configuring a global notebook computer SCN case study show that speculation-postponement (SP) strategies with early postponement can reduce excessive production processes, lost sales, deadstock, and increase the inventory turnover rate, allowing better uncertainty risks mitigation in optimizing the performance of the global SCN. Under various demand uncertainty levels, SP strategies can improve the supply chain operations efficiency while also being responsive in handling the un- expected changes to the uncertain demand. The results also highlight the importance to configure the SCN and SP strategy altogether with optimizing speculation strategy operations planning and production service level decisions to prevent sub-optimal solutions, such as the significant offset of the expected SP performance when the service level is not adjusted to demand uncertainty, showing how forecast-driven planning inaccuracy can be costly. Configuring SCN with the right SP strategy has consistent performance, potentially increasing SCN robustness and resiliency against global demand uncertainty risks.
Keywords: Global supply chain | Postponement strategy | Modularization | Demand uncertainty
مقاله انگلیسی
3 118-S03772217210
118-S03772217210-2021
: Influenza vaccine supply chains are subject to yield and demand uncertainty, which leads to the mismatch between supply and demand. This paper studies the production and procurement decisions in the influenza vaccine supply chain consisting of a manufacturer facing uncertain production yield and a social planner who faces uncertain demand and is responsible for social infection costs. We develop a novel model framework considering the risks resulting from uncertainties on both supply and demand sides that the manufacturer may delay part of delivery and the social planner may order under or over demand. Based on the framework, we first discuss the production and procurement decision-making problem in a centralized and a decentralized system. By comparing the two systems, we present the existence and extent of the inefficiency in the influenza vaccine supply chain. Further, we propose a procurement strategy that provides the social planner with two ordering opportunities and explore the conditions under which the two members would be willing to accept the strategy. The results show that such a strategy is effective on improving the influenza vaccine supply chain coordination. Additionally, considering large-scale outbreaks of influenza epidemics, we extend the models with a piecewise linear infection probability function to those with a generic one and describe the characteristics of the extended models and their solutions.
Keywords: Supply chain management | Influenza vaccines | Yield uncertainty | Demand uncertainty | Two ordering opportunities
مقاله انگلیسی
4 Improving the sustainability of a reverse supply chain system under demand uncertainty by using postponement strategies
بهبود پایداری سیستم زنجیره تأمین معکوس تحت عدم اطمینان تقاضا با استفاده از استراتژی های به تعویق انداختن-2021
In recent decades, issues of resource depletion and waste piling have grown at an alarming rate, which are happening in the cases of product wastes with significant residual values, such as e-waste. To address these issues, stakeholders have focused to develop a reverse supply chain (RSC) system that can sustain profitable takeback, reuse, and recycling operations in the long-term. Such a system requires efficiency in handling complex operations involving various players while being responsive to demand uncertainty and changes. One way in realizing these capabilities is by incorporating postponement concepts to the integrated RSC network, allowing the delay of operations susceptible to demand uncertainty. This study pioneers the formulation of a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer model of a multi-player RSC with speculation-postponement strategies. The sample average approximation method is used to solve and verify the proposed model that has an uncertain demand. Various speculation-postponement strategies, namely, disassembly, reconditioning, and reassembly strategies are developed to configure forecast and demand-driven RSC operations, including the purchasing, product takeback, production planning, inven- tory, and item speculation decisions. Numerical examples of the notebook computer RSC demonstrate that utilizing the right operation postponement can increase the network’s flexibility, allowing better economic performances even under high demand uncertainty risks and stricter environmental regula- tions. In various cases, the RSC performs better with speculation-postponement strategies than without postponement strategy, demonstrating the proposed model’s superiority. This study can provide insight to decision-makers to improve RSC sustainability through postponement. Moreover, the model is generic and can be applied to other products as well.© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Reverse supply chain | Reuse | Recycling | Postponement | Demand uncertainty
مقاله انگلیسی
5 Multi-outsourcing supply chain coordination under yield and demand uncertainties
هماهنگی بین زنجیره تامین چند برون سپاری تحت عدم قطعیت عملکرد و تقاضا-2021
As a popular production mode, outsourcing enables the cost saving for original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and the acquisition of advanced technology for contract manufacturer (CM). We consider a multi-outsourcing supply chain within the voluntary compliance regime. The game between one OEM facing uncertain demand and arbitrary CMs owning uncertain yields is modeled to study the interactions regarding lot-sizing decisions. A general method is developed to prove the concavity of profit functions, which is formidable to accomplish based on Hessian Matrix. The optimal ordering and production strategies are subsequently characterized. A revenue sharing with surplus purchase contract with great flexibility in parameter selection is proposed to coordinate the supply chain. We find that there exist threshold outsourcing prices beyond which the CMs are motivated to overproduce, otherwise they tend to produce in consistent with the orders. In a competitive market, price war is not a wise strategy for CM due to profit sacrifice. By contrast, if the selling price charged by the OEM is high, a smart CM can appropriately raise its outsourcing price because the order quantity difference among CMs is relatively small. Although supply stability improvement and outsourcing price reduction are both welcomed by the OEM, the latter is more important for it to consider in allocating orders.
Keywords: Multiple sourcing | Supply chain management | Random yield | Newsvendor | Game theory
مقاله انگلیسی
6 Employing revenue sharing strategies when confronted with uncertain and promotion-sensitive demand
به کارگیری استراتژی های تقسیم درآمد هنگام مواجه شدن با تقاضای نامشخص و حساس به ارتقا-2020
Revenue sharing (RS) refers to the distribution of income among stakeholders (e.g., manufacturers and retailers) in a business-to-business environment. This method is a widely employed marketing strategy in the video rental, telecoms, computer, sports, and music industries, among others. Promotional activities are also a popular method of stimulating sales. This study considers a decentralized supply chain, in which a manufacturer sells products to a retailer under conditions of uncertain and promotion-sensitive demand, using either a manufacturer or retailer promotion. The study aims to determine how RS affects the decision making and profits of both manufacturers and retailers. It seeks to uncover whether RS benefits channel members in the cases of manufacturer and retailer promotions. The results show that when the manufacturer promotes products to end customers, RS is an effective incentive for increasing the profits of manufacturers and retailers. However, retailers may be unwilling to share revenue when they undertake their own promotional activities based on different demand function settings. The findings add novel insights to the literature of management, which can be used by business decision makers.
Keywords: Operations-marketing interface | Revenue sharing | Promotion | Profit | Uncertain demand
مقاله انگلیسی
7 Employing revenue sharing strategies when confronted with uncertain and promotion-sensitive demand
استفاده از استراتژی های تقسیم درآمد هنگام مواجهه با تقاضای نامشخص و حساس به تبلیغ-2020
Revenue sharing (RS) refers to the distribution of income among stakeholders (e.g., manufacturers and retailers) in a business-to-business environment. This method is a widely employed marketing strategy in the video rental, telecoms, computer, sports, and music industries, among others. Promotional activities are also a popular method of stimulating sales. This study considers a decentralized supply chain, in which a manufacturer sells products to a retailer under conditions of uncertain and promotion-sensitive demand, using either a manufacturer or retailer promotion. The study aims to determine how RS affects the decision making and profits of both manufacturers and retailers. It seeks to uncover whether RS benefits channel members in the cases of manufacturer and retailer promotions. The results show that when the manufacturer promotes products to end customers, RS is an effective incentive for increasing the profits of manufacturers and retailers. However, retailers may be unwilling to share revenue when they undertake their own promotional activities based on different demand function settings. The findings add novel insights to the literature of management, which can be used by business decision makers.
Keywords: Operations-marketing interface | Revenue sharing | Promotion | Profit | Uncertain demand
مقاله انگلیسی
8 The impact of abusing return policies: A newsvendor model with opportunistic consumers
تاثیر سوء استفاده از سیاست های بازگشتی: یک مدل روزنامه فروشی با مشتری های فرصت طلب-2018
Consumers may return a product for a variety of reasons, such as the product having the wrong color or size, having poor functionality, being damaged during shipment, or simply prompting regret for an impulsive purchase. Retailers generally provide lenient return policies not only because they may signal high quality but also because they act as risk relievers for consumers’ purchasing decision processes. However, increasing product returns have become particularly challenging for the efficient management of inventory. As such, at the crux of a holistic inventory model lies the understanding of consumer return behavior. In this study, we introduce a variant of the classical single-period inventory (newsvendor) model with returns, in which heterogeneous consumers decide, based on their post-purchase valuation of the product, whether to return the product after using it. From the perspective of the retailer, such deliberate returns may abuse the return policy, which in turn may exacerbate reverse logistics and environmental costs. To that end, we incorporate demand uncertainty and consumer valuation uncertainty by explicitly gauging return probabilities and differentiated salvage values into a newsvendor model. We derive analytical results for the profit-maximizing order quantity for a single-period product that comes with a retailer return policy and exclusively identify the impact of return type as abused or normal. Also offered are closed-form optimal solutions in the cases where market demand is exponentially or uniformly distributed. Structural and numerical results lend managerial insight into how optimal ordering amount, profit, return rates and salvage values change with the price, return window, and hassle cost of returning the product.
keywords: Inventory management |Consumer behavior |Product returns |Fraudulent proclivity |Uncertain demand |Return policy
مقاله انگلیسی
9 Selecting new product designs and processing technologies under uncertainty: Two-stage stochastic model and application to a food supply chain
انتخاب طراحی های جدید محصول و فناوری های فرآوری تحت عدم قطعیت: مدل تصادفی دو مرحله ای و کاربرد برای یک زنجیره تامین غذا-2018
New product introduction frequently requires new processing technologies, and the development of new processing technologies also allows for the introduction of new products. An assessment of these new products and technologies must account for changes in the whole supply chain. This paper presents a two-stage stochastic mixed integer linear programming model that integrates the selection of new product designs and processing technologies in a supply chain context. Special attention is given to the demand uncertainties with regard to product specifications and volumes. The first stage of the model selects the processing technologies that determine the set of feasible product designs, leaving the detailed product designs and the production volumes as recourse actions to the second stage. We apply the developed approach to product designs and processing technologies in the dairy sector. Here, the substitution of milk powders through milk concentrates is currently being considered, which may lead to extensive energy savings in production. In an interdisciplinary effort, we first derive the design space encompassing the feasible dairy technologies and product designs for concentrates. Through numerical investigation we then show that flexible technologies are selected that can be used to produce different product designs. We also show that the selection of technologies is highly dependent on the uncertain demand characteristics of the new concentrate products.
keywords: Product design |Technology selection |Supply chain |Dairy industry |Two-stage stochastic programming
مقاله انگلیسی
10 Optimizing make-to-stock policies through a robust lot-sizing model
بهینه سازی سیاست های ساخت برای سهام ازطریق یک مدل اندازه گذاری بزرگ محکم-2018
In this paper we consider a practical lot-sizing problem faced by an industrial company. The company plans the production for a set of products following a Make-To-Order policy. When the productive capacity is not fully used, the remaining capacity is devoted to the production of those products whose orders are typically quite below the established minimum production level. For these products the company follows a Make-To-Stock (MTS) policy since part of the production is to fulfill future estimated orders. This yields a particular lot-sizing problem aiming to decide which products should be produced and the corresponding batch sizes. These lot-sizing problems typically face uncertain demands, which we address here through the lens of robust optimization. First we provide a mixed integer formulation assuming the future demands are deterministic and we tighten the model with valid inequalities. Then, in order to account for uncertainty of the demands, we propose a robust approach where demands are assumed to belong to given intervals and the number of deviations to the nominal estimated value is limited. As the number of products can be large and some instances may not be solved to optimality, we propose two heuristics. Computational tests are conducted on a set of instances generated from real data provided by our industrial partner. The heuristics proposed are fast and provide good quality solutions for the tested instances. Moreover, since they are based on the mathematical model and use simple strategies to reduce the instances size, these heuristics could be extended to solve other multi-item lot-sizing problems where demands are uncertain.
keywords: Lot-sizing |Make-To-Stock |Robust optimization |Mixed-integer linear programming
مقاله انگلیسی
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