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1 |
Ontology knowledge base combined with Bayesian networks for integrated corridor risk warning
پایگاه دانش هستی شناسی همراه با شبکه های بیزی برای هشدار خطر یکپارچه راهرو-2021 With the accelerated urbanization process, the emergence of urban underground integrated pipeline corridors
is the trend for cities, especially large and medium-sized cities. However, due to the complexity of the internal
system of the integrated corridor, there are various risks in the process of its construction and operation and
maintenance, and the risk factors are complex and diverse. In this paper, we introduce ontology technology and
knowledge base construction into the risk management of integrated pipeline corridor, build an ontology-based
knowledge base of integrated pipeline corridor risk, and construct a Bayesian network based on the established
risk knowledge base for risk evaluation of identified risk factors. The combination of ontology knowledge base
construction and Bayesian network method of integrated pipeline corridor risk makes the risk identification
system completer and more effective, and the method can effectively evaluate the disaster risk level of
integrated pipeline corridor operation and maintenance, which can meet the practical needs of integrated
pipeline corridor operation and maintenance risk management and disaster prevention and mitigation work.
Keywords: Integrated corridor | Risk warning | Ontology knowledge | Bayesian networks |
مقاله انگلیسی |
2 |
Juvenile delinquency risk factors: Individual, social, opportunity or all of these together?
عوامل خطر بزهکاری نوجوانان: فردی ، اجتماعی ، فرصت یا همه اینها با هم؟-2020 There is extensive literature on risk factors leading to criminal behavior. However, most of these
studies have been conducted in European and Anglo-Saxon countries, and there are few analogous
studies in Latin America. Our main aim was to analyze whether the criminal risk level
estimated from the interaction between antisocial motivation and criminal opportunities helps to
differentiate between adolescents with and without delinquent behavior (as proposed in the
Triple Risk for Delinquency Model). We measured both official and self-reported antisocial behavior
in a sample of 211 young people in Argentina. The results show a significant association
between delinquency and personal, social and opportunity risk factors. Also, it was possible to
differentiate between adolescents with and without official and self-reported antisocial behavior
with high sensitivity and specificity, based on the estimation of criminal risk levels. We discuss
the relevance and implications of these findings within the particular context of this study. Keywords: Triple risk for delinquency model | Juvenile delinquency | Criminal risk | Criminal motivation | Criminal opportunities |
مقاله انگلیسی |
3 |
A novel approach for occupational health and safety and environment risk assessment for nuclear power plant construction project
یک رویکرد جدید برای بهداشت و ایمنی شغلی و ارزیابی خطر محیط زیست برای پروژه ساخت نیروگاه هسته ای-2020 Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) construction project is a mega one with high level of occupational health and
safety and environment (OHSE) risks, and it is necessary to propose an approach for the OHSE risk
assessment so as to prevent the OHSE accidents or reduce their outcomes. However, there has not been
such an approach due to the high uncertainty and complexity of NPP construction project. Therefore, this
paper proposed a novel approach for the OHSE risk assessment which includes systematically identifying
the OHSE risks by using brainstorming method, establishing an OHSE risk assessment index system by
using Delphi method, and formulating a mathematical model by combining set pair analysis (SPA),
trapezoidal fuzzy number (TPFN), and set-valued statistics (SVS) methods for determining the overall
OHSE risk level for NPP construction project. The approach was used to assess the OHSE risks for the NPP
construction project in East China, and its overall OHSE risk level was assessed at level 2 (low OHSE risk
level). In addition, the problems in the OHSE risk management were found, and the corresponding OHSE
risk treatments for these problems were implemented. The results showed that the approach helped
reduce the OHSE risk level and protect the workers occupational health and safety and the environment
while the NPP construction project was under construction Keywords: Nuclear power plant construction project | Occupational health and safety and | environment | Risk assessment | Mathematical model |
مقاله انگلیسی |
4 |
Assessment of emerging risk level by occupational exposure to hand-arm vibrations: Approach under uncertainty conditions
ارزیابی سطح ریسک در حال ظهور با قرار گرفتن در معرض شغلی در برابر لرزش های بازو: دستیابی در شرایط عدم اطمینان-2019 Anticipating risk situations in the workplace is a necessary strategy in the current changing economic and technological environment. The identification, analysis, evaluation and characterization of new and emerging risks (NER) can be an effective focus to ensure safe and healthy workplace environment.
Exposure to hand-arm vibrations (HAV) is an important factor in manufacturing environments, as is the assessment of its emerging risk level (ERL) in the
workplace. In this sense, this study presents an approach based on the principles of risk matrices (certainty conditions), expert systems and diffuses logic that
incorporates uncertainty conditions into the evaluation of variables of interest for the assessment of ERL by occupational exposure to HAV in industrial processes. This approach has been analyzed under conditions of certainty and uncertainty. The influence of variables of interest under certainty conditions have been analyzed using a multifactorial analysis of variance (ANOVA). The values of such variables of interest and the calculation of ERL under uncertainty conditions have been obtained using an expert fuzzy model. The behavior of these variables has been analyzed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis in simulated and practical cases with real data.
The results obtained offer an approach for use in industrial environments that should be studied in different real cases for its subsequent generalization. |
مقاله انگلیسی |
5 |
Application of machine learning to laboratory safety management assessment
کاربرد یادگیری ماشین در ارزیابی مدیریت ایمنی آزمایشگاهی-2019 This paper proposes a new method to evaluate laboratory safety management based on machine learning that
aims to address the shortcomings of traditional laboratory safety evaluation methods, including poor accuracy,
large influence of human factors, and lack of a unified evaluation system. In this paper, the safety data of
laboratories in Southwest University were collected using a safety checklist, and the weight of each factor affecting
laboratory safety was analyzed using a Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP). The simulation results
showed that the model gave a more accurate and reasonable safety risk level of the laboratory, verified the
rationality and feasibility of the established method, and realized potential loopholes in the process of laboratory
management and college students operations. According to the evaluation results, the machine learning principle
and the existing maintenance knowledge of the evaluation knowledge base are applied to provide effective
measures and suggestions for users to complete the process of risk assessment. Through risk assessment, the
professional skill and the incident control could be improved. The model was easy to operate and has a good
application value for ensuring the personal and property safety of laboratory users. Keywords: Machine learning | Fuzzy mathematics | Laboratory safety management evaluation | Risk reduction |
مقاله انگلیسی |
6 |
Board diversity, firm risk, and corporate policies
تنوع هیئت مدیران، خطر شرکتی و سیاست های شرکتی-2018 We examine the effects of diversity in the board of directors on corporate policies and risk. Using a multidimensional measure, we find that greater board diversity leads to lower volatility and better performance. The lower risk levels are largely due to diverse boards adopting more persistent and less risky financial policies. However, consistent with diversity fostering more efficient (real) risk-taking, firms with greater board diversity also invest persistently more in research and development (R&D) and have more efficient innovation processes. Instrumental variable tests that exploit exogenous variation in firm access to the supply of diverse nonlocal directors indicate that these relations are causal.
keywords: Diversity |Board of directors |Governance |Firm risk |Performance |
مقاله انگلیسی |
7 |
Reinsurance versus securitization of catastrophe risk
بیمه کردن مجدد دربرابر ایمن سازی خطر فاجعه بار-2018 We provide a novel explanation for the low volume of securitization in catastrophe risk transfer using a signaling model. Relative to securitization, reinsurance features lower adverse selection costs because reinsurers possess superior underwriting resources than ordinary capital market investors. Reinsurance premia, however, reflect markups over actuarially fair premia due to the additional costs of underwriting. Insurers’ risk transfer choices trade off the costs and benefits of reinsurance relative to securitization. In equilibrium, low risks are transferred via reinsurance, while intermediate and high risks are transferred via partial and full securitization, respectively. An increase in the loss size increases the trigger risk level above which securitization is chosen. Hence, catastrophe exposures, which are characterized by lower probabilities and higher severities, are more likely to be retained or reinsured rather than securitized.
keywords: Reinsurance |Securitization |Retention |Catastrophe risk |Catastrophe bonds |
مقاله انگلیسی |
8 |
Optimal DOL (degree of operating leverage) with investment and production flexibility
درجه بندی اهرم بندی عملیاتی محصول با سرمایه گذاری و انعطاف پذیری محصول-2018 The purpose of this paper is to derive the optimal DOL (degree of operating leverage) of a company with flexibility in investment and production. The choice of DOL is a critical one because it impacts the company’s risk level, operating and financial performance, and valuation. However, there is virtually no research on how a company should choose its DOL. We address this gap in the literature, using a real-option model that incorporates important managerial flexibilities such as investment flexibility (to choose investment timing and capacity) and production flexibility (to change output level in response to demand-side changes). With a wide range of input parameter values, our model generates optimal DOL figures that are similar in magnitude to empirical estimates. We also identify the important determinants of DOL, such as costs (fixed cost, variable cost, and cost of capacity), demand characteristics (growth rate, volatility, and price-sensitivity), productivity of capital, and interest rate. How these inputs impact DOL depends on whether investment timing is exogenously specified or endogenously determined by the firm. Finally, capacity has been used in the literature as a measure of DOL, since capacity choice impacts DOL via fixed cost. However, we show that a number of other factors also affect DOL, and the relationship between capacity and DOL can be positive, negative, or non-monotonic. Thus, capacity is not a good proxy for DOL.
keywords: Degree of operating leverage |Capacity choice |Production flexibility |Real-option model |
مقاله انگلیسی |
9 |
Multilevel classification of security concerns in cloud computing
طبقه بندی چندسطحی نگرانی های امنیتی در محاسبات ابری-2017 Received 11 May 2015; revised 11 March 2016; accepted 20 March 2016 Available online 8 April 2016 Abstract Threats jeopardize some basic securityrequirements in a cloud. These threats generally constitute privacy breach, data leakage and unauthorized data access at different cloud layers. This paper presents a novel multilevel classification model of different security attacks across different cloud services at each layer. It also identifies attack types and risk levels associated with different cloud services at these layers. The risks are ranked as low, medium and high. The intensity of these risk levels depends upon the position of cloud layers. The attacks get more severe for lower layers where infrastructure and platform are involved. The intensity of these risk levels is also associated with security requirements of data encryption, multi-tenancy, data privacy, authentication and authorization for different cloud services. The multilevel classification model leads to the provision of dynamic security contract for each cloud layer that dynamically decides about security requirements for cloud consumer and provider. 2016 King Saud University. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). KEYWORDS :Cloud computing | Security | Virtualization | SaaS | PaaS | IaaS |
مقاله انگلیسی |
10 |
Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of port-centric supply chain disruption threats
ارزیابی جامع فازی از تهدیدات قطع زنجیره تامین بندر محور-2017 A port with reliable operations and management plays a pivotal role in ensuring supply chain continuity,
given the integral role of ports in supply chains nowadays. As supply chain parties are closely linked to
each other in todays globalised trade, any disruption at ports will have negative impacts on other supply
chain players. This paper evaluates the likelihood and severity of these port-centric supply chain
disruption (PSCD) threats using data collected from port operators worldwide through a survey ques
tionnaire. The PSCD threats were first identified from existing literature and interviews and subsequently
structured into the questionnaire for the respondents to rate these threats likelihood and consequence.
The data were analysed using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Each threat was ranked ac
cording to the relative risk value assigned to it. The results show that the combined risk level rated by
port operators is between low and medium, with threats pertaining to planning and infrastructure
having the greatest contribution to the disruptions, and those related to security the lowest. Congestion
within terminals, congestion at hinterland transfer, shortage of facilities or equipment, port equipment
breakdown and inadequate port cargo-handling equipment are the key factors in causing disruptions.
Indicators are then presented to act as early-detection of these threats to manage supply chain
disruptions.
Keywords: Port risks | Resilience | Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation | Risk assessment | Risk indicators |
مقاله انگلیسی |