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نتیجه جستجو - risk level

تعداد مقالات یافته شده: 15
ردیف عنوان نوع
1 A novel approach for occupational health and safety and environment risk assessment for nuclear power plant construction project
یک رویکرد جدید برای بهداشت و ایمنی شغلی و ارزیابی خطر محیط زیست برای پروژه ساخت نیروگاه هسته ای-2020
Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) construction project is a mega one with high level of occupational health and safety and environment (OHSE) risks, and it is necessary to propose an approach for the OHSE risk assessment so as to prevent the OHSE accidents or reduce their outcomes. However, there has not been such an approach due to the high uncertainty and complexity of NPP construction project. Therefore, this paper proposed a novel approach for the OHSE risk assessment which includes systematically identifying the OHSE risks by using brainstorming method, establishing an OHSE risk assessment index system by using Delphi method, and formulating a mathematical model by combining set pair analysis (SPA), trapezoidal fuzzy number (TPFN), and set-valued statistics (SVS) methods for determining the overall OHSE risk level for NPP construction project. The approach was used to assess the OHSE risks for the NPP construction project in East China, and its overall OHSE risk level was assessed at level 2 (low OHSE risk level). In addition, the problems in the OHSE risk management were found, and the corresponding OHSE risk treatments for these problems were implemented. The results showed that the approach helped reduce the OHSE risk level and protect the workers occupational health and safety and the environment while the NPP construction project was under construction
Keywords: Nuclear power plant construction project | Occupational health and safety and | environment | Risk assessment | Mathematical model
مقاله انگلیسی
2 Assessment of emerging risk level by occupational exposure to hand-arm vibrations: Approach under uncertainty conditions
ارزیابی سطح ریسک در حال ظهور با قرار گرفتن در معرض شغلی در برابر لرزش های بازو: دستیابی در شرایط عدم اطمینان-2019
Anticipating risk situations in the workplace is a necessary strategy in the current changing economic and technological environment. The identification, analysis, evaluation and characterization of new and emerging risks (NER) can be an effective focus to ensure safe and healthy workplace environment. Exposure to hand-arm vibrations (HAV) is an important factor in manufacturing environments, as is the assessment of its emerging risk level (ERL) in the workplace. In this sense, this study presents an approach based on the principles of risk matrices (certainty conditions), expert systems and diffuses logic that incorporates uncertainty conditions into the evaluation of variables of interest for the assessment of ERL by occupational exposure to HAV in industrial processes. This approach has been analyzed under conditions of certainty and uncertainty. The influence of variables of interest under certainty conditions have been analyzed using a multifactorial analysis of variance (ANOVA). The values of such variables of interest and the calculation of ERL under uncertainty conditions have been obtained using an expert fuzzy model. The behavior of these variables has been analyzed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis in simulated and practical cases with real data. The results obtained offer an approach for use in industrial environments that should be studied in different real cases for its subsequent generalization.
مقاله انگلیسی
3 Application of machine learning to laboratory safety management assessment
کاربرد یادگیری ماشین در ارزیابی مدیریت ایمنی آزمایشگاهی-2019
This paper proposes a new method to evaluate laboratory safety management based on machine learning that aims to address the shortcomings of traditional laboratory safety evaluation methods, including poor accuracy, large influence of human factors, and lack of a unified evaluation system. In this paper, the safety data of laboratories in Southwest University were collected using a safety checklist, and the weight of each factor affecting laboratory safety was analyzed using a Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP). The simulation results showed that the model gave a more accurate and reasonable safety risk level of the laboratory, verified the rationality and feasibility of the established method, and realized potential loopholes in the process of laboratory management and college students operations. According to the evaluation results, the machine learning principle and the existing maintenance knowledge of the evaluation knowledge base are applied to provide effective measures and suggestions for users to complete the process of risk assessment. Through risk assessment, the professional skill and the incident control could be improved. The model was easy to operate and has a good application value for ensuring the personal and property safety of laboratory users.
Keywords: Machine learning | Fuzzy mathematics | Laboratory safety management evaluation | Risk reduction
مقاله انگلیسی
4 Board diversity, firm risk, and corporate policies
تنوع هیئت مدیران، خطر شرکتی و سیاست های شرکتی-2018
We examine the effects of diversity in the board of directors on corporate policies and risk. Using a multidimensional measure, we find that greater board diversity leads to lower volatility and better performance. The lower risk levels are largely due to diverse boards adopting more persistent and less risky financial policies. However, consistent with diversity fostering more efficient (real) risk-taking, firms with greater board diversity also invest persistently more in research and development (R&D) and have more efficient innovation processes. Instrumental variable tests that exploit exogenous variation in firm access to the supply of diverse nonlocal directors indicate that these relations are causal.
keywords: Diversity |Board of directors |Governance |Firm risk |Performance
مقاله انگلیسی
5 Reinsurance versus securitization of catastrophe risk
بیمه کردن مجدد دربرابر ایمن سازی خطر فاجعه بار-2018
We provide a novel explanation for the low volume of securitization in catastrophe risk transfer using a signaling model. Relative to securitization, reinsurance features lower adverse selection costs because reinsurers possess superior underwriting resources than ordinary capital market investors. Reinsurance premia, however, reflect markups over actuarially fair premia due to the additional costs of underwriting. Insurers’ risk transfer choices trade off the costs and benefits of reinsurance relative to securitization. In equilibrium, low risks are transferred via reinsurance, while intermediate and high risks are transferred via partial and full securitization, respectively. An increase in the loss size increases the trigger risk level above which securitization is chosen. Hence, catastrophe exposures, which are characterized by lower probabilities and higher severities, are more likely to be retained or reinsured rather than securitized.
keywords: Reinsurance |Securitization |Retention |Catastrophe risk |Catastrophe bonds
مقاله انگلیسی
6 Optimal DOL (degree of operating leverage) with investment and production flexibility
درجه بندی اهرم بندی عملیاتی محصول با سرمایه گذاری و انعطاف پذیری محصول-2018
The purpose of this paper is to derive the optimal DOL (degree of operating leverage) of a company with flexibility in investment and production. The choice of DOL is a critical one because it impacts the company’s risk level, operating and financial performance, and valuation. However, there is virtually no research on how a company should choose its DOL. We address this gap in the literature, using a real-option model that incorporates important managerial flexibilities such as investment flexibility (to choose investment timing and capacity) and production flexibility (to change output level in response to demand-side changes). With a wide range of input parameter values, our model generates optimal DOL figures that are similar in magnitude to empirical estimates. We also identify the important determinants of DOL, such as costs (fixed cost, variable cost, and cost of capacity), demand characteristics (growth rate, volatility, and price-sensitivity), productivity of capital, and interest rate. How these inputs impact DOL depends on whether investment timing is exogenously specified or endogenously determined by the firm. Finally, capacity has been used in the literature as a measure of DOL, since capacity choice impacts DOL via fixed cost. However, we show that a number of other factors also affect DOL, and the relationship between capacity and DOL can be positive, negative, or non-monotonic. Thus, capacity is not a good proxy for DOL.
keywords: Degree of operating leverage |Capacity choice |Production flexibility |Real-option model
مقاله انگلیسی
7 Multilevel classification of security concerns in cloud computing
طبقه بندی چندسطحی نگرانی های امنیتی در محاسبات ابری-2017
Received 11 May 2015; revised 11 March 2016; accepted 20 March 2016 Available online 8 April 2016 Abstract Threats jeopardize some basic securityrequirements in a cloud. These threats generally constitute privacy breach, data leakage and unauthorized data access at different cloud layers. This paper presents a novel multilevel classification model of different security attacks across different cloud services at each layer. It also identifies attack types and risk levels associated with different cloud services at these layers. The risks are ranked as low, medium and high. The intensity of these risk levels depends upon the position of cloud layers. The attacks get more severe for lower layers where infrastructure and platform are involved. The intensity of these risk levels is also associated with security requirements of data encryption, multi-tenancy, data privacy, authentication and authorization for different cloud services. The multilevel classification model leads to the provision of dynamic security contract for each cloud layer that dynamically decides about security requirements for cloud consumer and provider.  2016 King Saud University. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
KEYWORDS :Cloud computing | Security | Virtualization | SaaS | PaaS | IaaS
مقاله انگلیسی
8 Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of port-centric supply chain disruption threats
ارزیابی جامع فازی از تهدیدات قطع زنجیره تامین بندر محور-2017
A port with reliable operations and management plays a pivotal role in ensuring supply chain continuity, given the integral role of ports in supply chains nowadays. As supply chain parties are closely linked to each other in todays globalised trade, any disruption at ports will have negative impacts on other supply chain players. This paper evaluates the likelihood and severity of these port-centric supply chain disruption (PSCD) threats using data collected from port operators worldwide through a survey ques tionnaire. The PSCD threats were first identified from existing literature and interviews and subsequently structured into the questionnaire for the respondents to rate these threats likelihood and consequence. The data were analysed using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Each threat was ranked ac cording to the relative risk value assigned to it. The results show that the combined risk level rated by port operators is between low and medium, with threats pertaining to planning and infrastructure having the greatest contribution to the disruptions, and those related to security the lowest. Congestion within terminals, congestion at hinterland transfer, shortage of facilities or equipment, port equipment breakdown and inadequate port cargo-handling equipment are the key factors in causing disruptions. Indicators are then presented to act as early-detection of these threats to manage supply chain disruptions.
Keywords: Port risks | Resilience | Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation | Risk assessment | Risk indicators
مقاله انگلیسی
9 Banks’ systemic risk in the Tunisian context: Measures and Determinants
ریسک سیستماتیک بانکی در زمینه تونس: اقدامات و عوامل تعیین کننده-2017
This paper proposes a systemic Risk cartography for Tunisian banks in order to shed the light on the key drivers of the Tunisian banks’ involvement in systemic risk. The aim of this analysis is to better understand the determining factors of the systemic risk levels. We intend to find the most influential vital few variables that are impacting the degree of systemic risk implications.In this perspective, we will develop a proper statistical framework based on a muli-level approach in order to explore, assess and explain the systemic risk incurred by the Tunisian banks. As a first step, we will provide a systemic risk cartography for the Tunisian banks using, and for the first time, a unified approach that combines CoES and Multi Dimensional Scaling (MDS) techniques. The recovered map revealed that public banks are taking the lead as the most involved banks in the systemic risk, followed closely by the two most important private banks BIAT and UBCI. As a second step, we will indicate how the use of a Systemic Risk Implication Composite Index (SRICI) provides the key drivers analysis of banks in systemic risk implication and shows that the implication of the Tunisian banks is highly dependent on the size of the financial institution, its liquidity, its technical efficiency, and its direct exposure to the interbank lending market. The present research offers two main insights. First, the ranking of the banks in terms of systemic implication, and second, the factors from which stems systemic importance. The first insight could complement the micro prudential scope of the regulation by providing a broader perspective that includes contagion and subsequently formulates a macro prudential vision and reinforces the regulation policy. The second one deserves higher attention on on-going basis in any systemic risk analysis. Supervisors could detect potentially systemic banks by keeping track of these factors and imposing a close monitoring for this type of institution.
Keywords : Systemic Risk | Cartography | Value at Risk | Expected shortfall | CoVaR | CoES | MDS | PLS regression | Systemic Risk Implication Composite Index
مقاله انگلیسی
10 Holistic thinking and air traffic controllers decision making in conflict resolution
تفکر جامع و تصمیم گیری در مورد کنترل ترافیک هوایی در حل اختلافات-2017
When facing potential conflicts, whether to make interventions is an important decision for air traffic controllers and vital for aviation safety and efficiency. While many task-related factors in influencing such decisions have been identified, the large portion of individual differences has remained insufficiently explained. This paper proposes that controllers with a more holistic thinking style will be more likely to make interventions because they envision more uncertainties in the system which can lead to a higher level of perceived risk and a greater likelihood to take proactive measures. To test these hypotheses, forty-two licensed controllers were invited to complete a questionnaire measuring holistic thinking style and later a conflict detection/resolution task. Multilevel regression analyses showed that (1) when the real risk level (the minimum lateral distance between two converging aircraft) dropped, controllers who think more holistically still tended to maintain a higher risk perception level (perceived likelihood of aircraft collision in the future) which lead to a higher intervention ratio and (2) even when real and perceived risk levels were controlled, those who think more holistically were more likely to make interventions. These findings are discussed with reference to literature in cognitive style, risk perception and workload management. Potential implications for personnel selection and training are also discussed.
Keywords: Air traffic control | Conflict resolution | Holistic thinking style | Decision making | Workload management
مقاله انگلیسی
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