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How expected inflation distorts the current account and the valuation effect
چگونه انتظار می رود تورم حساب جاری و اثر ارزیابی را تحریف کند-2021 We show that the current account balance (CA) is systematically distorted by an inflation
effect , which arises because income on debt is recorded as nominal interest in the currency
of denomination. Since nominal interest includes compensations for expected inflation, in-
creases in the latter must impact the CA. Guided by the relevant international accounting
rules, we impute the inflation effect for 50 economies between 1991 and 2017. When ad-
justing for the inflation effect , the absolute value of yearly CAs drops by 0.13% of GDP on
average. Over the full period, the reduction is a sizable 22.85% of initial GDP for the aver-
age country (26.4% for the U.S.). As the flip side of the CA distortions, the inflation effect
contributes systematically to the well-known valuation effect of net foreign assets. For the
average country, the inflation effect accounts for a twelfth of the valuation effect, for the
U.S., it accounts for well over a half. keywords: تورم | حساب جاری | اثر ارزش گذاری | Inflation | Current account | Valuation effect |
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