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نتیجه جستجو - ارزیابی ریسک کمی

تعداد مقالات یافته شده: 2
ردیف عنوان نوع
1 Accounting for Safety Barriers Degradation in the Risk Assessment of Oil and Gas Systems by Multistate Bayesian Networks
حسابداری برای تخریب موانع ایمنی در ارزیابی ریسک سیستم های نفت و گاز توسط شبکه های چندگانه بیزی-2021
In this paper, a multistate Bayesian Network (BN) is proposed to model and evaluate the functional performance of safety barriers in Oil and Gas plants. The nodes of the BN represent the safety barriers Health States (HSs) and the corresponding conditional Failure Probability (FP) values are assigned. HSs are assessed on the basis of specific Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) related to the barrier characteristics (i.e., technical, procedural or organizational, continuously monitored or event-based characterized). FP values are estimated from failure datasets (for technical barriers), evaluated by Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) (for operational and organi- zational barriers) and assigned by expert elicitation (for barriers lacking data or information). For illustration, the multistate BN model is developed for preventive barriers and applied to a case study related to the potential release of flammable material in the slug catcher of a representative O&G Upstream plant which may lead to major accident scenarios (fire, explosion, toxic dispersion). The results from the case study demonstrate that the multistate BN model is able to account for the safety barriers HS and their associated functional performance.
keywords: ارزیابی ریسک کمی | ارزیابی خطر زندگی | شبکه بیزی | مانع ایمنی | شاخص عملکرد کلیدی | حاشیه ایمنی احتمالی | Quantitative Risk Assessment | Living Risk Assessment | Bayesian Network | Safety Barrier | Key Performance Indicator | Probabilistic Safety Margins
مقاله انگلیسی
2 Qualitative and quantitative project risk assessment using a hybrid PMBOK model developed under uncertainty conditions
ارزیابی ریسک کمی و کیفی پروژه با استفاده از یک مدل توسعه یافته PMBOK تحت شرایط غیر قطعی-2020
This study presented a qualitative and quantitative project risk assessment using a hybrid PMBOK model developed under uncertainty conditions. Accordingly, an exploratory and applied research design was employed in this study. The research sample included 15 experienced staff working in main and related positions in Neyr Perse Company. After reviewing the literature and the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK), 32 risk factors were identified and their number reduced to 17 risks using the expert opinions via the fuzzy Delphi technique run through three stages. The results of the confirmatory factor analysis showed that all risks were confirmed by the members of the research sample. Then the identified risks were structured and ranked using fuzzy DEMATEL and fuzzy ANP techniques. The final results of the study showed that the political and economic sanctions had the highest weight followed by foreign investors’ attraction and the lack of regional infrastructure.
Keywords: Project risks | Project management body of knowledge (PMBOK) | Uncertainty | Mixed qualitative and quantitative risk assessment approach | Mathematics | Probability theory | Engineering | Industrial engineering | Business
مقاله انگلیسی
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