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IoTracker: A probabilistic event tracking approach for data-intensive IoT Smart Applications
IoTracker: یک رویکرد ردیابی رویداد احتمالی برای برنامههای هوشمند اینترنت اشیا با داده های فشرده-2022 Smart Applications for cities, industry, farming and healthcare use Internet of Things (IoT)
approaches to improve the general quality. A dependency on smart applications implies that any
misbehavior may impact our society with varying criticality levels, from simple inconveniences
to life-threatening dangers. One critical challenge in this area is to overcome the side effects
caused by data loss due to failures in software, hardware, and communication systems, which
may also affect data logging systems. Event traceability and auditing may be impaired when an
application makes automated decisions and the operating log is incomplete. In an environment
where many events happen automatically, an audit system must understand, validate, and
find the root causes of eventual failures. This paper presents a probabilistic approach to track
sequences of events even in the face of logging data loss using Bayesian networks. The results of
the performance analysis with three smart application scenarios show that this approach is valid
to track events in the face of incomplete data. Also, scenarios modeled with Bayesian subnets
highlight a decreasing complexity due to this divide and conquer strategy that reduces the
number of elements involved. Consequently, the results improve and also reveal the potential
for further advancement.
Keywords: Smart applications | Event tracker | Probabilistic tracker | Bayesian networks |
مقاله انگلیسی |
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برهم کنش متقابل جهت گیری ها نشاندهنده رمز گشایی سطح بالا به پایین در حافظه کار بصری است
سال انتشار: 2022 - تعداد صفحات فایل pdf انگلیسی: 12 - تعداد صفحات فایل doc فارسی: 41 کدگذاری حسی ( چگونه محرکها واکنشهای حسی را برمیانگیزد ) به پیشرفت از ویژگیهای سطح پایین به سطح بالا مشهور است .
رمزگشایی ( چگونه پاسخها منجر به ادراک میشود ) کمتر درک میشود اما اغلب فرض میشود که از همان سلسلهمراتب پیروی میکند .
بر این اساس ، رمز گشایی جهت گیری باید در نواحی سطح پایین مانند V۱ ، بدون برهم کنش متقابل رخ دهد .
با این حال , یک مطالعه , دینگ ,کوا , تی سودیکس , و کان ( 2017 ) شواهدی در برابر این فرض ارائه دادند و پیشنهاد کردند که رمزگشایی بصری اغلب ممکن است از سلسلهمراتب سطح بالا به پایین در حافظه کاری پیروی کند , که در آن محدودیتهای سطح به پایین تعامل بین ویژگیهای سطح پایینتر را ایجاد میکند . اگر دو جهت گیری در جهت مخالف تثبیت هر دو عملی هستند و حافظه فعال را وارد میکنند , پس باید با هم تعامل داشته باشند. ما در واقع هم برهم کنش متقابل پیشبینیشده ( تنفر و همبستگی ) بین جهت گیری ها را پیدا کردیم .
آزمایشها کنترل و تجزیه و تحلیلهای کنترلی , توضیحات دیگری همچون تعصب گزارش دهی و انطباق در سراسر آزمایشها در همان سمت تثبیت را رد کردند . به علاوه , ما دادهها را با استفاده از چارچوب رمزگشایی Bayesian سطح پایین به سطح پایین توضیح دادیم .
واژه های کاربردی: کدگشایی بصری | جانبداری | سر و صدا | بیزین گذشته نگر |
مقاله ترجمه شده |
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فعل و انفعالات فیکساسیون متقاطع جهت ها، پیشنهاد کدگشایی سطح بالا به پایین در حافظه کاری بصری
سال انتشار: 2022 - تعداد صفحات فایل pdf انگلیسی: 12 - تعداد صفحات فایل doc فارسی: 37 کدگذاری حسی (چگونگی برانگیختن پاسخ های حسی توسط محرک ها) به پیشرفت از ویژگی های سطح پایین به سطح بالا معروف است. کمتر به فهم و درک کدگشایی (چگونه پاسخ ها منجر به ادراک می شوند) پرداخته شده است اما اغلب فرض می شود که از سلسله مراتب مشابهی پیروی می کند. بر این اساس، کدگشایی جهت باید در مناطق سطح پایین مانند V1، بدون فعل و انفعالات فیکساسیون متقابل رخ دهد. با این حال، در مطالعه ی Ding, Cueva, Tsodyks, and Qian (2017) شواهدی برخلاف این فرض ارائه شد و آنها پیشنهاد کردند که کدگشایی بصری اغلب از سلسله مراتبی از سطح بالا به سطح پایین در حافظه کاری پیروی می کند، که در آن محدودیتهای سطح از بالاتر به پایینتر ، تعامل بین ویژگیهای سطح پایینتر را معرفی میکنند. دو جهت در سویه مخالف فیکساسیون، هم مربوط به کار هستند و هم حافظه کاری می و باید با یکدیگر تعامل داشته باشند. در واقع فعل و انفعالات فیکساسیون متقابل پیش بینی شده (دفعه و همبستگی) بین جهت ها را پیدا کرده. کارآزماییها و تجزیه و تحلیلهای کنترلی، توضیحات جایگزین مانند گزارش سوگیری و انطباق در سراسر کارآزماییها را در جهت مشابه فیکساسیون، رد کردند. علاوه بر این، دادهها را با استفاده از چارچوب کدگشایی بیزی سطح بالا به پایین گذشتهنگر شرح دادیم.
کلیدواژه ها: کدگشایی بصری | سوگیری ادراکی | نویز حافظه | گذشته نگر بیزی |
مقاله ترجمه شده |
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A Quantum-Like Model for Predicting Human Decisions in the Entangled Social Systems
یک مدل کوانتومی برای پیشبینی تصمیمات انسانی در سیستمهای اجتماعی درهم تنیده-2022 Human-centered systems of systems, such as social
networks, the Internet of Things, or healthcare systems are growingly becoming significant facets of modern life. Realistic models
of human behavior in such systems play an essential role in
their accurate modeling and prediction. Nevertheless, human
behavior under uncertainty often violates the predictions by the
conventional probabilistic models. Recently, quantum-like decision theories have shown a considerable potential to explain the
contradictions in human behavior by applying quantum probabilities. But providing a quantum-like decision theory that could
predict rather than describe the current state of human behavior
is still one of the unsolved challenges. The fundamental contribution of this work is introducing the concept of entanglement
from quantum information theory to Bayesian networks (BNs).
This concept leads to an entangled quantum-like BN (QBN), in
which each human is a part of the entire society. Accordingly,
society’s effect on the dynamic evolution of the decision-making
process, which is less often considered in decision theories, is
modeled by entanglement measures. To reach this aim, we introduce a quantum-like witness and find the relationship between
this witness and the famous concurrence entanglement measure.
The proposed predictive entangled QBN (PEQBN) is evaluated
on 22 experimental tasks. Results confirm that PEQBN provides
more realistic predictions of human decisions under uncertainty
when compared with classical BNs and three recent quantum-like
approaches.
Index Terms: Bayesian networks (BNs) | entanglement | human behavior | quantum physics | quantum-like decision making | social systems. |
مقاله انگلیسی |
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Alternative bayesian models for genetic evaluation of biometrical, physical, and morphological reproductive traits in nelore bulls
مدلهای جایگزین بایزی برای ارزیابی ژنتیکی صفات تولید مثل بیومتریک ، فیزیکی و مورفولوژیکی در گاو نرهای-2021 Reproductive performance is one of the most important factors for the productive efficiency in beef cattle pro- duction. Biometric testicular and physical and morphological traits of the ejaculate are used to evaluate the reproductive performance of bulls. The phenotypic data of semen physical and morphological traits are expressed in percentage or notes, thus the evaluation of such traits through models that assume normal data distribution can be questioned. We aimed to compare the mixed models fitted under alternative and traditional Gaussian distributions for physical and morphological semen traits. Additionally to identify the most suitable model, we aimed also to predict genetic parameters for reproductive traits via Bayesian inference. Phenotypic data of 615 Nelore bulls, aged between 18 and 36 months, were used. The traits sperm motility (MOT), major (MD), minor (MID), and total (TD) sperm defects and percentage of normal spermatozoa were evaluated through Gaussian and Exponential models. For the physical traits expressed in scores, sperm vigor (VIG), and semen mass activity (MASS), the Gaussian and Poisson models were compared. Only Gaussian model was used for genetic parameters estimation of biometric testicular and seminal vesicle traits. The exponential model presented a better fit quality for MD and MID data than Gaussian model. For MASS the best model was Poisson. For all other evaluated traits, the Gaussian model presented the best fit. Heritability estimates were high for testicular biometric traits, ranging from 0.34 to 0.5. However, for the biometric measures of the seminal vesicle the heritabilitys were low (0.04 for seminal vesicle length and 0.07 for seminal vesicle width). For the morphological traits of the semen, the heritability estimates were high, ranging from 0.36 to 0.50. For the semen physical traits, the heritability estimates varied widely, from 0.04 for MOT and VIG to 0.57 for MASS. The model assumption influences the bull genetic evaluation for physical and morphological semen traits, resulting in substantial ranking differences. However, the Gaussian model exhibited the best prediction accuracies for all traits.* Corresponding author.E-mail address: tulio.boas@ufv.br (T.V.V.B. Oliveira).https://doi.org/10.1016/j.livsci.2020.104313Received 1 July 2020; Received in revised form 1 October 2020; Accepted 27 October 2020Available online 28 October 20201871-1413/© 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Bovine | Bayesian inference | Reproductive traits | Bull fertility |
مقاله انگلیسی |
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Magic, Bayes and wows: A Bayesian account of magic tricks
جادو، بیز و واو: شرح بیزی از ترفندهای جادویی-2021 Magic tricks have enjoyed an increasing interest by scientists. However, most research in magic focused on
isolated aspects of it and a conceptual understanding of magic, encompassing its distinct components and va-
rieties, is missing. Here, we present an account of magic within the theory of Bayesian predictive coding. We
present the “wow” effect of magic as an increase in surprise evoked by the prediction error between expected and
observed data. We take into account prior knowledge of the observer, attention, and (mis-)direction of
perception and beliefs by the magician to bias the observer’s predictions and present a simple example for the
modelling of the evoked surprise. The role of misdirection is described as everything that aims to maximize the
surprise a trick evokes by the generation of novel beliefs, the exploitation of background knowledge and
attentional control of the incoming information. Understanding magic within Bayesian predictive coding allows
unifying all aspects of magic tricks within one framework, making it tractable, comparable and unifiable with
other models in psychology and neuroscience. keywords: شعبده بازي | سورپرایز بیزی | برنامه نویسی پیش بینی شده | سوء تفاهم | توجه | Magic | Bayesian surprise | Predictive coding | Misdirection | Attention |
مقاله انگلیسی |
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Ontology knowledge base combined with Bayesian networks for integrated corridor risk warning
پایگاه دانش هستی شناسی همراه با شبکه های بیزی برای هشدار خطر یکپارچه راهرو-2021 With the accelerated urbanization process, the emergence of urban underground integrated pipeline corridors
is the trend for cities, especially large and medium-sized cities. However, due to the complexity of the internal
system of the integrated corridor, there are various risks in the process of its construction and operation and
maintenance, and the risk factors are complex and diverse. In this paper, we introduce ontology technology and
knowledge base construction into the risk management of integrated pipeline corridor, build an ontology-based
knowledge base of integrated pipeline corridor risk, and construct a Bayesian network based on the established
risk knowledge base for risk evaluation of identified risk factors. The combination of ontology knowledge base
construction and Bayesian network method of integrated pipeline corridor risk makes the risk identification
system completer and more effective, and the method can effectively evaluate the disaster risk level of
integrated pipeline corridor operation and maintenance, which can meet the practical needs of integrated
pipeline corridor operation and maintenance risk management and disaster prevention and mitigation work.
Keywords: Integrated corridor | Risk warning | Ontology knowledge | Bayesian networks |
مقاله انگلیسی |
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An assessment of probabilistic disaster in the oil and gas supply chain leveraging Bayesian belief network
ارزیابی فاجعه احتمالی در زنجیره تأمین نفت و گاز با استفاده از شبکه اعتقادی بیزی-2021 The oil and gas supply chain (OGSC) is considered to have one of the most significant stakes in the U.S. economy because of its interconnectedness with supply chains in other sectors, such as health and medicine, food, heavy manufacturing, and services. While oil and gas development is expanding exponentially, various factors ranging from man-made to natural disasters can hinder OGSC processes, which, in turn, can result in inefficient and costly operations in other sectors. This study presents a Bayesian Network (BN) model to predict and assess disasters in the OGSC based on seven main factors: technical, economic, social, political, safety, environmental, and legal. BBN is a probabilistic graphical model that is predominantly used in risk analysis to illustrate and assess probabilistic relationships among different variables. To draw meaningful managerial insights into the proposed model, sensitivity analysis and belief propagation are used. The results indicate that of the seven factors responsible for OGSC disasters, technical factors have the highest impact while legal and political factors have the lowest. Keywords: Oil and gas | Supply chain | Disaster assessment | Bayesian network | Resilience |
مقاله انگلیسی |
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Panel cointegration, quantile regressions, asymmetric adjustments and crises: The case of EU current accounts
همبستگی پانل، رگرسیون های کمی، تنظیمات نامتقارن و بحران ها: مورد حساب های فعلی اتحادیه اروپا-2021 This paper investigates the relationships between the current account and several fundamentals,
including the real exchange rate, government consumption, investment, openness, terms of trade
and real income in the EU28 group of countries. A main feature of the study is that we also assess
the relationships for two subgroups, the EU15 + Cyprus and Malta, and the CEECs. Using data
spanning the period between 1995q1 and 2019q2, we identify similarities and differences be-
tween the responses in these two subgroups, which are obscured when an aggregate study of the
EU28 is conducted, rather than sub-groups. Our results suggest that, in assessing the current
account for economic blocs, an a priori assumption of similar relationships for member countries
may be misplaced. keywords: حساب جاری | بدهی خارجی | رگرسیون کمتری | بیزی | مدل نامتقارن | شکاف ساختاری | ادغام اروپا | Current account | External debt | Quantile regression | Bayesian | Asymmetric model | Structural breaks | European integration |
مقاله انگلیسی |
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Accounting for Safety Barriers Degradation in the Risk Assessment of Oil and Gas Systems by Multistate Bayesian Networks
حسابداری برای تخریب موانع ایمنی در ارزیابی ریسک سیستم های نفت و گاز توسط شبکه های چندگانه بیزی-2021 In this paper, a multistate Bayesian Network (BN) is proposed to model and evaluate the functional performance
of safety barriers in Oil and Gas plants. The nodes of the BN represent the safety barriers Health States (HSs) and
the corresponding conditional Failure Probability (FP) values are assigned. HSs are assessed on the basis of
specific Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) related to the barrier characteristics (i.e., technical, procedural or
organizational, continuously monitored or event-based characterized). FP values are estimated from failure
datasets (for technical barriers), evaluated by Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) (for operational and organi-
zational barriers) and assigned by expert elicitation (for barriers lacking data or information). For illustration,
the multistate BN model is developed for preventive barriers and applied to a case study related to the potential
release of flammable material in the slug catcher of a representative O&G Upstream plant which may lead to
major accident scenarios (fire, explosion, toxic dispersion). The results from the case study demonstrate that the
multistate BN model is able to account for the safety barriers HS and their associated functional performance. keywords: ارزیابی ریسک کمی | ارزیابی خطر زندگی | شبکه بیزی | مانع ایمنی | شاخص عملکرد کلیدی | حاشیه ایمنی احتمالی | Quantitative Risk Assessment | Living Risk Assessment | Bayesian Network | Safety Barrier | Key Performance Indicator | Probabilistic Safety Margins |
مقاله انگلیسی |