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نتیجه جستجو - بیزی

تعداد مقالات یافته شده: 100
ردیف عنوان نوع
1 IoTracker: A probabilistic event tracking approach for data-intensive IoT Smart Applications
IoTracker: یک رویکرد ردیابی رویداد احتمالی برای برنامه‌های هوشمند اینترنت اشیا با داده های فشرده-2022
Smart Applications for cities, industry, farming and healthcare use Internet of Things (IoT) approaches to improve the general quality. A dependency on smart applications implies that any misbehavior may impact our society with varying criticality levels, from simple inconveniences to life-threatening dangers. One critical challenge in this area is to overcome the side effects caused by data loss due to failures in software, hardware, and communication systems, which may also affect data logging systems. Event traceability and auditing may be impaired when an application makes automated decisions and the operating log is incomplete. In an environment where many events happen automatically, an audit system must understand, validate, and find the root causes of eventual failures. This paper presents a probabilistic approach to track sequences of events even in the face of logging data loss using Bayesian networks. The results of the performance analysis with three smart application scenarios show that this approach is valid to track events in the face of incomplete data. Also, scenarios modeled with Bayesian subnets highlight a decreasing complexity due to this divide and conquer strategy that reduces the number of elements involved. Consequently, the results improve and also reveal the potential for further advancement.
Keywords: Smart applications | Event tracker | Probabilistic tracker | Bayesian networks
مقاله انگلیسی
2 برهم کنش متقابل جهت گیری ها نشان‌دهنده رمز گشایی سطح بالا به پایین در حافظه کار بصری است
سال انتشار: 2022 - تعداد صفحات فایل pdf انگلیسی: 12 - تعداد صفحات فایل doc فارسی: 41
کدگذاری حسی ( چگونه محرک‌ها واکنش‌های حسی را برمی‌انگیزد ) به پیشرفت از ویژگی‌های سطح پایین به سطح بالا مشهور است . رمزگشایی ( چگونه پاسخ‌ها منجر به ادراک می‌شود ) کمتر درک می‌شود اما اغلب فرض می‌شود که از همان سلسله‌مراتب پیروی می‌کند . بر این اساس ، رمز گشایی جهت گیری باید در نواحی سطح پایین مانند V۱ ، بدون برهم کنش متقابل رخ دهد . با این حال , یک مطالعه , دینگ ,کوا , تی سودیکس , و کان ( 2017 ) شواهدی در برابر این فرض ارائه دادند و پیشنهاد کردند که رمزگشایی بصری اغلب ممکن است از سلسله‌مراتب سطح بالا به پایین در حافظه کاری پیروی کند , که در آن محدودیت‌های سطح به پایین تعامل بین ویژگی‌های سطح پایین‌تر را ایجاد می‌کند . اگر دو جهت گیری در جهت مخالف تثبیت هر دو عملی هستند و حافظه فعال را وارد می‌کنند , پس باید با هم تعامل داشته باشند. ما در واقع هم برهم کنش متقابل پیش‌بینی‌شده ( تنفر و همبستگی ) بین جهت گیری ها را پیدا کردیم . آزمایش‌ها کنترل و تجزیه و تحلیل‌های کنترلی , توضیحات دیگری همچون تعصب گزارش دهی و انطباق در سراسر آزمایش‌ها در همان سمت تثبیت را رد کردند . به علاوه , ما داده‌ها را با استفاده از چارچوب رمزگشایی Bayesian سطح پایین به سطح پایین توضیح دادیم .
واژه های کاربردی: کدگشایی بصری | جانبداری | سر و صدا | بیزین گذشته نگر
مقاله ترجمه شده
3 فعل و انفعالات فیکساسیون متقاطع جهت ها، پیشنهاد کدگشایی سطح بالا به پایین در حافظه کاری بصری
سال انتشار: 2022 - تعداد صفحات فایل pdf انگلیسی: 12 - تعداد صفحات فایل doc فارسی: 37
کدگذاری حسی (چگونگی برانگیختن پاسخ های حسی توسط محرک ها) به پیشرفت از ویژگی های سطح پایین به سطح بالا معروف است. کمتر به فهم و درک کدگشایی (چگونه پاسخ ها منجر به ادراک می شوند) پرداخته شده است اما اغلب فرض می شود که از سلسله مراتب مشابهی پیروی می کند. بر این اساس، کدگشایی جهت باید در مناطق سطح پایین مانند V1، بدون فعل و انفعالات فیکساسیون متقابل رخ دهد. با این حال، در مطالعه ی Ding, Cueva, Tsodyks, and Qian (2017) شواهدی برخلاف این فرض ارائه شد و آنها پیشنهاد کردند که کدگشایی بصری اغلب از سلسله مراتبی از سطح بالا به سطح پایین در حافظه کاری پیروی می کند، که در آن محدودیت‌های سطح از بالاتر به پایین‌تر ، تعامل بین ویژگی‌های سطح پایین‌تر را معرفی می‌کنند. دو جهت در سویه مخالف فیکساسیون، هم مربوط به کار هستند و هم حافظه کاری می و باید با یکدیگر تعامل داشته باشند. در واقع فعل و انفعالات فیکساسیون متقابل پیش بینی شده (دفعه و همبستگی) بین جهت ها را پیدا کرده. کارآزمایی‌ها و تجزیه و تحلیل‌های کنترلی، توضیحات جایگزین مانند گزارش سوگیری و انطباق در سراسر کارآزمایی‌ها را در جهت مشابه فیکساسیون، رد کردند. علاوه بر این، داده‌ها را با استفاده از چارچوب کدگشایی بیزی سطح بالا به پایین گذشته‌نگر شرح دادیم.
کلیدواژه ها: کدگشایی بصری | سوگیری ادراکی | نویز حافظه | گذشته نگر بیزی
مقاله ترجمه شده
4 A Quantum-Like Model for Predicting Human Decisions in the Entangled Social Systems
یک مدل کوانتومی برای پیش‌بینی تصمیمات انسانی در سیستم‌های اجتماعی درهم تنیده-2022
Human-centered systems of systems, such as social networks, the Internet of Things, or healthcare systems are growingly becoming significant facets of modern life. Realistic models of human behavior in such systems play an essential role in their accurate modeling and prediction. Nevertheless, human behavior under uncertainty often violates the predictions by the conventional probabilistic models. Recently, quantum-like decision theories have shown a considerable potential to explain the contradictions in human behavior by applying quantum probabilities. But providing a quantum-like decision theory that could predict rather than describe the current state of human behavior is still one of the unsolved challenges. The fundamental contribution of this work is introducing the concept of entanglement from quantum information theory to Bayesian networks (BNs). This concept leads to an entangled quantum-like BN (QBN), in which each human is a part of the entire society. Accordingly, society’s effect on the dynamic evolution of the decision-making process, which is less often considered in decision theories, is modeled by entanglement measures. To reach this aim, we introduce a quantum-like witness and find the relationship between this witness and the famous concurrence entanglement measure. The proposed predictive entangled QBN (PEQBN) is evaluated on 22 experimental tasks. Results confirm that PEQBN provides more realistic predictions of human decisions under uncertainty when compared with classical BNs and three recent quantum-like approaches.
Index Terms: Bayesian networks (BNs) | entanglement | human behavior | quantum physics | quantum-like decision making | social systems.
مقاله انگلیسی
5 Alternative bayesian models for genetic evaluation of biometrical, physical, and morphological reproductive traits in nelore bulls
مدلهای جایگزین بایزی برای ارزیابی ژنتیکی صفات تولید مثل بیومتریک ، فیزیکی و مورفولوژیکی در گاو نرهای-2021
Reproductive performance is one of the most important factors for the productive efficiency in beef cattle pro- duction. Biometric testicular and physical and morphological traits of the ejaculate are used to evaluate the reproductive performance of bulls. The phenotypic data of semen physical and morphological traits are expressed in percentage or notes, thus the evaluation of such traits through models that assume normal data distribution can be questioned. We aimed to compare the mixed models fitted under alternative and traditional Gaussian distributions for physical and morphological semen traits. Additionally to identify the most suitable model, we aimed also to predict genetic parameters for reproductive traits via Bayesian inference. Phenotypic data of 615 Nelore bulls, aged between 18 and 36 months, were used. The traits sperm motility (MOT), major (MD), minor (MID), and total (TD) sperm defects and percentage of normal spermatozoa were evaluated through Gaussian and Exponential models. For the physical traits expressed in scores, sperm vigor (VIG), and semen mass activity (MASS), the Gaussian and Poisson models were compared. Only Gaussian model was used for genetic parameters estimation of biometric testicular and seminal vesicle traits. The exponential model presented a better fit quality for MD and MID data than Gaussian model. For MASS the best model was Poisson. For all other evaluated traits, the Gaussian model presented the best fit. Heritability estimates were high for testicular biometric traits, ranging from 0.34 to 0.5. However, for the biometric measures of the seminal vesicle the heritabilitys were low (0.04 for seminal vesicle length and 0.07 for seminal vesicle width). For the morphological traits of the semen, the heritability estimates were high, ranging from 0.36 to 0.50. For the semen physical traits, the heritability estimates varied widely, from 0.04 for MOT and VIG to 0.57 for MASS. The model assumption influences the bull genetic evaluation for physical and morphological semen traits, resulting in substantial ranking differences. However, the Gaussian model exhibited the best prediction accuracies for all traits.* Corresponding author.E-mail address: tulio.boas@ufv.br (T.V.V.B. Oliveira).https://doi.org/10.1016/j.livsci.2020.104313Received 1 July 2020; Received in revised form 1 October 2020; Accepted 27 October 2020Available online 28 October 20201871-1413/© 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Bovine | Bayesian inference | Reproductive traits | Bull fertility
مقاله انگلیسی
6 Magic, Bayes and wows: A Bayesian account of magic tricks
جادو، بیز و واو: شرح بیزی از ترفندهای جادویی-2021
Magic tricks have enjoyed an increasing interest by scientists. However, most research in magic focused on isolated aspects of it and a conceptual understanding of magic, encompassing its distinct components and va- rieties, is missing. Here, we present an account of magic within the theory of Bayesian predictive coding. We present the “wow” effect of magic as an increase in surprise evoked by the prediction error between expected and observed data. We take into account prior knowledge of the observer, attention, and (mis-)direction of perception and beliefs by the magician to bias the observer’s predictions and present a simple example for the modelling of the evoked surprise. The role of misdirection is described as everything that aims to maximize the surprise a trick evokes by the generation of novel beliefs, the exploitation of background knowledge and attentional control of the incoming information. Understanding magic within Bayesian predictive coding allows unifying all aspects of magic tricks within one framework, making it tractable, comparable and unifiable with other models in psychology and neuroscience.
keywords: شعبده بازي | سورپرایز بیزی | برنامه نویسی پیش بینی شده | سوء تفاهم | توجه | Magic | Bayesian surprise | Predictive coding | Misdirection | Attention
مقاله انگلیسی
7 Ontology knowledge base combined with Bayesian networks for integrated corridor risk warning
پایگاه دانش هستی شناسی همراه با شبکه های بیزی برای هشدار خطر یکپارچه راهرو-2021
With the accelerated urbanization process, the emergence of urban underground integrated pipeline corridors is the trend for cities, especially large and medium-sized cities. However, due to the complexity of the internal system of the integrated corridor, there are various risks in the process of its construction and operation and maintenance, and the risk factors are complex and diverse. In this paper, we introduce ontology technology and knowledge base construction into the risk management of integrated pipeline corridor, build an ontology-based knowledge base of integrated pipeline corridor risk, and construct a Bayesian network based on the established risk knowledge base for risk evaluation of identified risk factors. The combination of ontology knowledge base construction and Bayesian network method of integrated pipeline corridor risk makes the risk identification system completer and more effective, and the method can effectively evaluate the disaster risk level of integrated pipeline corridor operation and maintenance, which can meet the practical needs of integrated pipeline corridor operation and maintenance risk management and disaster prevention and mitigation work.
Keywords: Integrated corridor | Risk warning | Ontology knowledge | Bayesian networks
مقاله انگلیسی
8 An assessment of probabilistic disaster in the oil and gas supply chain leveraging Bayesian belief network
ارزیابی فاجعه احتمالی در زنجیره تأمین نفت و گاز با استفاده از شبکه اعتقادی بیزی-2021
The oil and gas supply chain (OGSC) is considered to have one of the most significant stakes in the U.S. economy because of its interconnectedness with supply chains in other sectors, such as health and medicine, food, heavy manufacturing, and services. While oil and gas development is expanding exponentially, various factors ranging from man-made to natural disasters can hinder OGSC processes, which, in turn, can result in inefficient and costly operations in other sectors. This study presents a Bayesian Network (BN) model to predict and assess disasters in the OGSC based on seven main factors: technical, economic, social, political, safety, environmental, and legal. BBN is a probabilistic graphical model that is predominantly used in risk analysis to illustrate and assess probabilistic relationships among different variables. To draw meaningful managerial insights into the proposed model, sensitivity analysis and belief propagation are used. The results indicate that of the seven factors responsible for OGSC disasters, technical factors have the highest impact while legal and political factors have the lowest.
Keywords: Oil and gas | Supply chain | Disaster assessment | Bayesian network | Resilience
مقاله انگلیسی
9 Panel cointegration, quantile regressions, asymmetric adjustments and crises: The case of EU current accounts
همبستگی پانل، رگرسیون های کمی، تنظیمات نامتقارن و بحران ها: مورد حساب های فعلی اتحادیه اروپا-2021
This paper investigates the relationships between the current account and several fundamentals, including the real exchange rate, government consumption, investment, openness, terms of trade and real income in the EU28 group of countries. A main feature of the study is that we also assess the relationships for two subgroups, the EU15 + Cyprus and Malta, and the CEECs. Using data spanning the period between 1995q1 and 2019q2, we identify similarities and differences be- tween the responses in these two subgroups, which are obscured when an aggregate study of the EU28 is conducted, rather than sub-groups. Our results suggest that, in assessing the current account for economic blocs, an a priori assumption of similar relationships for member countries may be misplaced.
keywords: حساب جاری | بدهی خارجی | رگرسیون کمتری | بیزی | مدل نامتقارن | شکاف ساختاری | ادغام اروپا | Current account | External debt | Quantile regression | Bayesian | Asymmetric model | Structural breaks | European integration
مقاله انگلیسی
10 Accounting for Safety Barriers Degradation in the Risk Assessment of Oil and Gas Systems by Multistate Bayesian Networks
حسابداری برای تخریب موانع ایمنی در ارزیابی ریسک سیستم های نفت و گاز توسط شبکه های چندگانه بیزی-2021
In this paper, a multistate Bayesian Network (BN) is proposed to model and evaluate the functional performance of safety barriers in Oil and Gas plants. The nodes of the BN represent the safety barriers Health States (HSs) and the corresponding conditional Failure Probability (FP) values are assigned. HSs are assessed on the basis of specific Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) related to the barrier characteristics (i.e., technical, procedural or organizational, continuously monitored or event-based characterized). FP values are estimated from failure datasets (for technical barriers), evaluated by Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) (for operational and organi- zational barriers) and assigned by expert elicitation (for barriers lacking data or information). For illustration, the multistate BN model is developed for preventive barriers and applied to a case study related to the potential release of flammable material in the slug catcher of a representative O&G Upstream plant which may lead to major accident scenarios (fire, explosion, toxic dispersion). The results from the case study demonstrate that the multistate BN model is able to account for the safety barriers HS and their associated functional performance.
keywords: ارزیابی ریسک کمی | ارزیابی خطر زندگی | شبکه بیزی | مانع ایمنی | شاخص عملکرد کلیدی | حاشیه ایمنی احتمالی | Quantitative Risk Assessment | Living Risk Assessment | Bayesian Network | Safety Barrier | Key Performance Indicator | Probabilistic Safety Margins
مقاله انگلیسی
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