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نتیجه جستجو - تحلیل تصمیم چند معیاری

تعداد مقالات یافته شده: 4
ردیف عنوان نوع
1 Multi-criteria decision-making considering risk and uncertainty in physical asset management
تصمیم گیری چند معیار با توجه به ریسک و عدم اطمینان در مدیریت دارایی های فیزیکی-2020
In this work we present a method for risk-informed decision-making in the physical asset management context whereby risk evaluation and cost-benefit analysis are considered in a common framework. The methodology uses quantitative risk measures to prioritize projects based on a combination of risk tolerance criteria, cost-benefit analysis and uncertainty reduction metrics. There is a need in the risk and asset management literature for a unified framework through which quantitative risk can be evaluated against tolerability criteria and trade-off decisions can be made between risk treatment options. The methodology uses quantitative risk measures for loss of life, loss of production and loss of property. A risk matrix is used to classify risk as intolerable, As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) or broadly tolerable. Risks in the intolerable and ALARP region require risk treatment, and risk treatment options are generated. Risk reduction benefit of the treatment options is quantified, and cost-benefit analysis is performed using discounted cashflow analysis. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to derive weights for prioritization criteria based on decision-maker preferences. The weights, along with prioritization criteria for risk reduction, tolerance criteria and project cost, are used to prioritize projects using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution. The usefulness of the methodology for improved decision-making is illustrated using a numerical example.
Keywords: Risk analysis | Uncertainty | Asset management | Multi-criteria decision analysis | Risk matrix | Cost-benefit analysis
مقاله انگلیسی
2 Assessment of eco-geo-environment quality using multivariate data: A case study in a coal mining area of Western China
ارزیابی کیفیت محیط زیست با استفاده از داده های چند متغیره: یک مطالعه موردی در یک منطقه استخراج زغال سنگ در غرب چین-2019
Coal resource extensive development and utilization seriously threatens the region fragile ecological environment in Western China. Using the Yushenfu coal mining area as a study site, the ecological and geological environment (eco-geo-environment) factors affected by coal mining were analyzed. Spatiotemporal data extracted from remote sensing images was combined with survey data to establish an evaluation and prediction model. Integrated eco-geo-environmental quality was established by calculating the combined weight of each factor using the fuzzy delphi analytic hierarchy process method to develop a comprehensive multi-factor ecogeo- environment quality evaluation map. Results shows that the eco-geo-environment quality was divided in five grades of worse, bad, medium, good and better, the overall condition of the study region is moderate and it is apparent that regions with less intensive mining activities (Yushen sub coal mining area) are in better condition as compared to those regions where intensive mining is well established (Shenfu sub coal mining area). Comparisons with the classified eco-geo-environment categories revealed that different eco-geo-environment quality grades were affected different eco-geo-environment categories after a period of coal resources exploitation, but eco-geo-environment quality generally has been declining since the development and utilization of coal resources. The model provides a more scientific and accurate method to evaluate regional eco-geoenvironmental quality, which is important for the coordinated development between coal mining and the fragile eco-environment.
Keywords: Ecologically vulnerable coal mining area | Multi-criteria decision analysis | Eco-geo-environment type | Eco-geo-environment quality assessment
مقاله انگلیسی
3 Generalised framework for multi-criteria method selection
چارچوب عمومی برای انتخاب روش چند معیاری-2019
Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methods are widely used in various fields and disciplines. While most of the research has been focused on the development and improvement of new MCDA methods, relatively limited attention has been paid to their appropriate selection for the given decision problem. Their improper application decreases the quality of recommendations, as different MCDA methods deliver inconsistent results. The current paper presents a methodological and practical framework for selecting suitable MCDA methods for a particular decision situation. A set of 56 available MCDA methods was anal- ysed and, based on that, a hierarchical set of methods’ characteristics and the rule base were obtained. This analysis, rules and modelling of the uncertainty in the decision problem description allowed to build a framework supporting the selection of a MCDA method for a given decision-making situation. The prac- tical studies indicate consistency between the methods recommended with the proposed approach and those used by the experts in reference cases. The results of the research also showed that the proposed approach can be used as a general framework for selecting an appropriate MCDA method for a given area of decision support, even in cases of data gaps in the decision-making problem description. The proposed framework was implemented within a web platform available for public use at www.mcda.it.
Keywords: Multi-criteria decision analysis | MCDA | Multi-criteria method selection | Incomplete decision problem description
مقاله انگلیسی
4 An expert fuzzy system for management of railroad bridges in use
سیستم فازی تخصصی برای مدیریت پل های راه آهن در حال استفاده-2019
Management of railroad bridges constitutes a typical decision-making problem which arises from the necessity to allocate limited financial resources to maintenance and repair work. It is a multiple criteria issue consisting in the arrangement of bridges with regards to the level of structure degradation which is decisive for the safety level of their users. So far, despite a large number of suggested calculation models, mainly of probabilistic character, no method has been noticed that would allow to rank any number of bridges taking into consideration a full variety of structure and material solutions. Therefore, in order to meet the need for a more effective model, an innovative approach has been proposed using the aggregated calculation algorithm which combines the modified Extent Analysis Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (EA FAHP) method and the Dominant Analytic Hierarchy Process (DAHP) one. It is a decision-making and calculation model which allows to reflect the actual assessment processes in a more favourable manner, as well as to take into account the diversity of solutions with respect to materials and structure of bridges. An example was given of the application of the suggested method on the selected group of railroad bridges in Poland that have been in use for over 50 years. The selected structures have more diverse structures of decks and are more prone to damage than road bridges. Due to the lack of algorithms similar to the one discussed within this paper, it was verified in a limited scope with the use of two different methods by way of comparing the accordance of bridge ranking which is of importance for making a decision concerning the performance of maintenance and repair work.
Keywords: Bridge management system (BMS) | Existing railway bridges | Assessment | Maintenance | Extent analysis fuzzy analytic hierarchy process | (EA FAHP) | Dominant analytic hierarchy process (DAHP) | Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) | Fuzzy group decision making (FGDM)
مقاله انگلیسی
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