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نتیجه جستجو - تحلیل ریسک

تعداد مقالات یافته شده: 29
ردیف عنوان نوع
1 Accounting for uncertainties due to high-impact low-probability events in power system development
محاسبه عدم قطعیت های ناشی از رویدادهای با احتمال کم تاثیر زیاد در توسعه سیستم قدرت-2021
In the long-term development of the electric power system, system operators should consider the socio-economic balance between grid investment costs and security of supply, including the risk of power supply interruptions. Cost-benefit analyses conducted for this purpose are associated with many uncertainties but have traditionally focused on the expected value of the net socio-economic benefits of risk-reducing measures. This article focuses on the large uncertainties that are associated with the possible occurrence of high-impact low-probability interruption events (HILP events). The objective is to quantify and visualize the implications of uncertainties due to HILP events in the context of power system development. More specifically, this article describes a method- ology accounting for uncertainties in socio-economic cost-benefit analysis of measures for reducing the risk of HILP events. The methodology accounts for the contributions of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties and comprises a hybrid probabilistic-possibilistic uncertainty analysis method. Applying the methodology to a real case involving a grid investment decision, it is demonstrated how it provides additional insight compared to conventional cost-benefit analyses considering expected values where uncertainties are not accounted for explicitly. It is furthermore discussed how these results can help to better inform grid development decisions.
keywords: برنامه ریزی سیستم قدرت | تحلیل ریسک | آسیب پذیری | قابلیت اطمینان سیستم قدرت | رویدادهای فوق العاده | Power system planning | Risk analysis | Vulnerability | Power system reliability | Extraordinary events
مقاله انگلیسی
2 Circular food supply chains – Impact on value addition and safety
زنجیره های تأمین مواد غذایی دایره ای - تأثیر بر ارزش افزوده و ایمنی-2021
Background: The “linear” manufacturing processes generate waste materials and products that after their use end up in landfills and incinerators. Circular supply chains implement one of the basic concepts of the bioeconomic, i. e., collecting waste streams in order to recycle them into new products, thus achieving a more sustainable production system. Scope and approach: This paper is focused on the application of a circular supply chain concept within the food system, with the aims to: a) outline the advantages of this approach in terms of value addition; b) discuss the impact of the increased complexity of circular supply chains on food safety; and c) propose management solutions. To link theoretical principles with empirical data, winemaking was chosen as a case study because of the high volumes of valuable byproducts produced globally. Key findings and conclusions: Circular food supply chains can potentially generate added-value foods. However, new loops in the food supply chains could also bring about new risks. The main challenges are likelihood of food contamination and loss of identification due to batch dispersion. Hence, a holistic approach of research is needed to integrate the value addition strategy with risk analysis and to apply forecasting and optimization studies to the whole supply chain. At the operational level, Internet of Things could represent a powerful management tool. Moreover, the management system within a circular supply chain should be conceived and implemented beyond the company level, involving all the trading partners in order to ensure high transparency, interconnectivity and thus efficacy.
Keywords: Circular supply chain | Value addition | Food safety | Risk analysis | Traceability
مقاله انگلیسی
3 Risk assessment of agricultural supermarket supply chain in big data environment
ارزیابی ریسک زنجیره تأمین سوپرمارکت های کشاورزی در محیط داده های کلان-2020
Article history:Received 20 November 2019Received in revised form 30 June 2020 Accepted 14 July 2020Available online 16 July 2020Keywords:Big dataAgricultural super-docking Supply chainRisk analysisWith the application of big data in all walks of life, big data thinking is effectively improving the cir- culation efficiency of agricultural products supply chain by driving management changes in business decision-making and f¨armer-supermarket dockinga¨ s an innovative mode of agricultural products circu- lation. Based on the current situation of China’s agricultural supermarket supply chain development, this paper makes an in-depth study on the supply chain risk of agricultural products of large retail enterprises under the mode of a¨ gricultural supermarket docking¨, and then introduces the agricultural supermarket docking supply chain under the big data environment. This paper uses big data to analyze the risks that may arise in the supply chain of a¨ gricultural supermarket docking¨in large retail enterprises. This paper from the aspects of production, processing, distribution, retail and consumption, introduces the new risks of agricultural supermarket supply chain after introducing big data. Secondly, Qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation are combined to conduct risk assessment. Through empirical analysis, the ranking of all risk factors is obtained, and the relevant fuzzy evaluation grade and risk evaluation criteria are given. Through expert evaluation, a new risk ranking is also obtained, which is not much different from the results of empirical analysis, and the empirical results are also verified. Therefore, develop this study is helpful to prevent the risk of agricultural supermarket supply chain connection. At the same time, the information integration, sharing and feedback of the big database provide a new idea for the optimization of the supply chain connecting agricultural production.it also has reference significance for other supply chain risk management.© 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Big data | Agricultural super-docking | Supply chain | Risk analysis
مقاله انگلیسی
4 Multi-criteria decision-making considering risk and uncertainty in physical asset management
تصمیم گیری چند معیار با توجه به ریسک و عدم اطمینان در مدیریت دارایی های فیزیکی-2020
In this work we present a method for risk-informed decision-making in the physical asset management context whereby risk evaluation and cost-benefit analysis are considered in a common framework. The methodology uses quantitative risk measures to prioritize projects based on a combination of risk tolerance criteria, cost-benefit analysis and uncertainty reduction metrics. There is a need in the risk and asset management literature for a unified framework through which quantitative risk can be evaluated against tolerability criteria and trade-off decisions can be made between risk treatment options. The methodology uses quantitative risk measures for loss of life, loss of production and loss of property. A risk matrix is used to classify risk as intolerable, As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) or broadly tolerable. Risks in the intolerable and ALARP region require risk treatment, and risk treatment options are generated. Risk reduction benefit of the treatment options is quantified, and cost-benefit analysis is performed using discounted cashflow analysis. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to derive weights for prioritization criteria based on decision-maker preferences. The weights, along with prioritization criteria for risk reduction, tolerance criteria and project cost, are used to prioritize projects using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution. The usefulness of the methodology for improved decision-making is illustrated using a numerical example.
Keywords: Risk analysis | Uncertainty | Asset management | Multi-criteria decision analysis | Risk matrix | Cost-benefit analysis
مقاله انگلیسی
5 Program evaluation of highway access with innovative risk-cost-benefit analysis
ارزیابی برنامه دسترسی بزرگراهها با تحلیل نوآورانه تجزیه و تحلیل ریسک-هزینه-سود-2020
Access management is used to control vehicular ingress and egress to adjacent property, where the main goal is to preserve the safety and capacity of the transportation network. Access management can assist in protecting billions of dollars in current investments in the transportation infrastructure, yet it is common for transportation planners to have limited resources, including budgets, equipment, time, human resources, and others, and thus they need principled approaches for allocating their limited resources across a large network of highways. This research develops a framework that can be used to prioritize competing needs for access management among thousands of access points. A key innovation of this research is the integration of risk analysis and cost-benefit analysis with data uncertainties. This will be accomplished by introducing three risk components—hazard intensity, exposure, and vulnerability—that can be used to evaluate roadway performance and to monetize the potential benefits and costs of access management projects. These components are then presented in a threedimensional diagram to facilitate tradeoff analysis and to allow for risk-cost-benefit analysis with data uncertainties and tradeoff analysis to complement one another. The developed framework is demonstrated by applying it to four major U.S. highways with a combined length of 321.95 km.
Keywords: System safety | Resource allocation | Risk-cost-benefit analysis | Priority setting | Data uncertainty | Engineering systems
مقاله انگلیسی
6 Quantitative assessment of microbial quality and safety risk: A preliminary case study of strengthening raspberry supply system in Chile
ارزیابی کمی از کیفیت میکروبی و خطر ایمنی: یک مطالعه موردی اولیه از تقویت سیستم تأمین تمشک در شیلی-2020
National governments are moving to integrate risk analysis frameworks into food safety management systems at the country level. However, this process is less advanced in developing countries. In this context, the Chilean Livestock and Agriculture Service (SAG), Food Quality and Safety Agency (ACHIPIA) and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL) collaborated on a project to control generic Escherichia coli and Hepatitis A virus (HAV) contamination in both fresh and frozen raspberry products destined for export. The objectives of this study were to 1) identify along the raspberry supply chain the most influential factors of E. coli and HAV contamination in the final products; and 2) evaluate the efficacies of possible interventions to control these influential factors. To achieve these objectives, a unified quantitative model of microbial contamination in raspberries was developed to describe the impact of factors in a continuum from the farm to the destination of importation on E. coli/HAV contamination in fresh and frozen raspberry products. Multiple surveys were conducted to obtain countryspecific data on current common practices of producing and processing raspberries in Chile for inputs into the simulation model. The model estimated mean bacterial loads of−1.64 and−5.46 logCFU/g for E. coli and mean viral loads of −6.45 and −6.51 logPDU/g for HAV in fresh and frozen raspberries, respectively. Sensitivity and scenario analyses indicated that reduction of E. coli contamination in the end products can be effectively achieved by improving the quality of water used for pesticide application, as well as by controlling the transport and storage time and temperature along raspberries supply chain. By contrast, to control HAV contamination in the end products, efforts should be focused on improving the hygiene practices of berry handlers on the farm and at the packing plant. This project provides straightforward recommendations for Chilean food safety authorities to effectively prioritize their financial and human resources to proactively prevent microbial contamination in raspberries. Moreover, this project provide a framework that can be extended to other countries to promote capability building for applying risk-based food safety management systems for public health protection.
Keywords: Risk analysis | Quantitative simulation | Raspberry | Escherichia coli | Hepatitis A | Intervention
مقاله انگلیسی
7 Managing the dangers in Lake Kivu – How and why
مدیریت خطرات موجود در دریاچه کیوو - چگونه و چرا-2020
Lake Kivu is probably the Worlds largest natural freshwater digester of algae to produce biogas. Its resources in situ may generate power for generations. Extracting gas is essential to avert a future limnic eruption. Undisturbed, the reservoir formed by salinity-based chemoclines, keeps biogenic CH4 and CO₂ in solution. This is stored in lower strata of the lake. Gases accumulating ever closer to saturation levels, threaten to cause a future limnic eruption. An eruption as occurred at Lake Nyos in Cameroon in 1986 with 1746 casualties, can result if not prevented. But Lake Kivu has potential and inventory for consequences 1000 times larger. Based on novel hypotheses on vertical transport and the lakes history, we used multidisciplinary analyses of this situation. One can foresee its outcomes and recognise system constraints. Therefore, initiating gas extraction enables the vital outcomes; (a) society can enforce extraction methods that ensure prevention of future disasters while, (b) minimizing environmental impact, (c) maximizing useful energy output, and (d) developers pursuing economic projects. The key to safety is management of the chemoclines while producing gas. Achieving safety and production needs the right specification of plant design. For gas production facilities, it is designing to achieve what must be done technically. After our primary concern for public safety, we examine ways of minimizing any environmental impacts. Changes are caused by natural upwelling of saline meteoric water from lava strata into the deep monimolimnion of nutrient-rich water bodies. Raw gas extracted must be washed with water from the mixolimnion to make the gas fit for use in power-generation and domestic gas. For maintenance of chemoclines, we discuss how a fraction of the degassed water must be evacuated from the resource strata and re-injected into the mixolimnion to maintain chemoclines. The challenge lies in how to minimize this safety-driven impact on the mixolimnion from toxic effects of H₂S, from CO₂-induced acidity, and oxygen depletion by CH4 and H₂S.
Keywords: Lake Kivu | Limnic eruption | Gas extraction | Best available technology | Risk analysis | Gas processing | Gas resource
مقاله انگلیسی
8 Predicting supply chain risks using machine learning: The trade-off between performance and interpretability
پیش بینی ریسک های زنجیره تأمین با استفاده از یادگیری ماشین: مبادلات بین عملکرد و تفسیر-2019
Managing supply chain risks has received increased attention in recent years, aiming to shield supply chains from disruptions by predicting their occurrence and mitigating their adverse effects. At the same time, the resurgence of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has led to the investigation of machine learning techniques and their applicability in supply chain risk management. However, most works focus on prediction performance and neglect the importance of interpretability so that results can be understood by supply chain practitioners, helping them make decisions that can mitigate or prevent risks from occurring. In this work, we first propose a supply chain risk prediction framework using data-driven AI techniques and relying on the synergy between AI and supply chain experts. We then explore the trade-off between prediction performance and interpretability by implementing and applying the framework on the case of predicting delivery delays in a real-world multi-tier manufacturing supply chain. Experiment results show that prioritising interpretability over performance may require a level of compromise, especially with regard to average precision scores.
Keywords: Supply chain risk management | Risk analysis | Risk prediction | Machine learning | Interpretability
مقاله انگلیسی
9 تحلیل ریسک عملیاتی داده محور در تدارکات تجارت الکترونیک
سال انتشار: 2019 - تعداد صفحات فایل pdf انگلیسی: 7 - تعداد صفحات فایل doc فارسی: 22
کارایی تدارکات تجارت الکترونیک(ECL) یکی از فاکتورهای مهم موفقیت شرکت های تجارت الکترونیک در بازارهای رقابتی امروز است. به هر حال، اجرای ECL فرایندی پیچیده و آسیب پذیر در برابر بسیاری از خطرات است که این عامل تهدید مهمی برای عملکرد می باشد. درک کامل این خطرات نیازمند اجرای اندازه گیری های هدفمند برای کاهش موثر تاثیرات سو می باشد. بنابراین، در این تحقیق یک روش تحلیل کمیتی برای خطرات اجرایی درECL بر اساس اطلاعات بدست امده از تعاملات تجارت الکترونیک ارائه شده است. بخصوص اینکه، فرایند اجرای ECL از طریق تحلیل پیوسته فعالیت های کلیدی بدست می آید. سپس، با در نظر گرفتن زمان اجرا به عنوان شاخص کلیدی عملکرد، الگوهای عملکردی در فازهای مختلف اجرا تحلیل می شوند. در ادامه، با در نظر گرفتن پراکندگی های مختلف در فازهای مختلف و بخصوص توزیع چند بعدی زمان انتقال، روش تحلیل خطر با استفاده از مدل ترکیبی گاسیان (GMM) برای تحلیل خطر مطرح شده است. در نهایت، یک مطالعه موردی برای اندازه گیری خطرات اجرایی با استفاده از اطلاعات واقعی معرفی شده است و چند مورد از کاربردها همراه با نتایج بیان شده اند.
کلمات کلیدی: تدارکات تجارت الکترونیک | ریسک های اجرایی | تحلیل داده، تحلیل ریسک | مدل ترکیب گاسیان
مقاله ترجمه شده
10 Knowledge representation using non-parametric Bayesian networks for tunneling risk analysis
نمایش دانش با استفاده از شبکه های بیزی غیر پارامتری برای تجزیه و تحلیل ریسک تونل زنی-2019
Knowledge capture and reuse are critical in the risk management of tunneling works. Bayesian networks (BNs) are promising for knowledge representation due to their ability to integrate domain knowledge, encode causal relationships, and update models when evidence is available. However, the model development based on classic BNs is challenging when expert opinions are solicited due to the discretization of variables and quantification of large conditional probability tables. This study applies non-parametric BNs, which only require the elicitation of the marginal distribution corresponding to each node and correlation coefficient associated with each edge, to develop a knowledge-based expert system for tunneling risk analysis. In particular, we propose to use the pairwise Pearsons linear correlations to parameterize the model because the assessment is intuitive and experts in the engineering domain are more familiar and comfortable with this notion. However, when Spearmans rank correlation is given, the method can also be used by modification of the marginals. The method is illustrated with a tunnel case in the Wuhan metro project. The expert knowledge of risk assessment for common failures in shield tunneling is integrated and visualized. The developed model is validated by real documented accidents. Potential applications of the model are also explored, such as decision support for risk-based design.
Keywords: Non-parametric Bayesian networks | Structured expert judgment | Expert system | Risk analysis | Tunneling
مقاله انگلیسی
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