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1 |
The dynamic linkages between current account deficit and budget balance deficit in the South Asian region
ارتباط پویا بین کسری حساب جاری و کسری تراز بودجه در منطقه جنوب آسیا-2021 The issue of twin imbalances is at the forefront of fiscal policy concerns in the South Asian region,
fuelled by an ever-going budget deficit and current account deficit over the last five decades. A
standard approach is to assume a model in which budget balance influences the current account.
We relax this assumption by using a panel data vector autoregression model comprising five
South Asian countries. The results show that both budget deficit and current account deficit are
mutually causative, which contrasts the unidirectional causality running from fiscal deficit to
current account deficit found in prior studies. Further, this bi-causality relationship is also
demonstrated in the impulse response analyses. Budget balance in South Asian economies re-
sponds positively to a one standard deviation positive shock in the current account balance.
Likewise, external balance increases to a one standard deviation positive shock in internal bal-
ance. Higher fiscal debt impedes economic growth, which in turn impacts negatively on the
budget balance. Our findings lead us to reject ’fiscal policy only’ recommendations to address the
twin deficits. keywords: کسری دوقلو | مدل P-VAR | آزمون علیت پانل گرنجر | تابع پاسخ ضربه ای | آسیای جنوبی | Twin deficits | P-VAR model | Panel Granger causality test | Impulse response function | South Asia |
مقاله انگلیسی |
2 |
On the link between current account and fiscal imbalances in the presence of structural breaks: Empirical evidence from Egypt
در ارتباط بین حساب جاری و عدم تعادل مالی در حضور شکاف های ساختاری: شواهد تجربی از مصر-2021 This study provides an empirical analysis for Egypt of the link between fiscal and current account imbalances, which is also known in the literature as the twin deficit hypothesis. We assess the link between the
two deficits in the presence of structural breaks using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model
and the bootstrap causality test. Our empirical results suggest that we reject the twin deficit hypothesis
over the long-run. Instead, we find support for the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis. The absence of any
long-run relationship between the two variables is backed by our bootstrap causality test and our FM-OLS
(Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares) regression results. Still, we find support for the existence of a
link between the two deficits in the short-run. The results from the ARDL model with breaks contrast
with those in earlier studies without breaks. The latter rejected both the twin deficit and the Ricardian
equivalence hypotheses.
keywords: عدم تعادل بودجه | عدم تعادل حساب جاری | فرضیه دوقلو | همبستگی ریکاردی | شکاف ساختاری | مصر | Budget imbalance | Current account imbalance | Twin-deficit hypothesis | Ricardian equivalence | ARDL | Structural breaks | Egypt |
مقاله انگلیسی |
3 |
Degree of sustainability of current account: evidence from Cote d ^ ’Ivoire using a non-linear approach
درجه پایداری حساب جاری: شواهد از ساحل عاج با استفاده از رویکرد غیر خطی-2021 The current account deficit is a macroeconomic indicator that provides information on the health of an economy.
Its sustainability is particularly crucial for developing countries such as Cote dIvoire, one of the largest economies ^
in West Africa. Given the countrys exposure to external vulnerability, this paper analysed the degree of sustainability of its current account. Beyond this, the study looked at the resilience of the economy to external shocks
by examining how exports behave following an asymmetric shock on imports plus interest on external borrowing.
To this end, the model developed by Shin et al. (2014) was applied to the intertemporal approach to current
account sustainability using quarterly macroeconomic data from 1985q1 to 2017q4. The study found that Cote ^
dIvoires current account balance is sustainable. However, this sustainability is weak in the sense of Hakkio and
Rush (1991), thus leading to a high risk of government failure in this respect. Also, the study shows that exports
react differently to asymmetric shocks on increased imports, with a return to equilibrium often very slow.
Therefore, the strengthening and stability of the socio-political environment is to be encouraged, as well as the
implementation of policies aimed at sound public finance management and minimising the economys vulnerability to external shocks
keywords: پایداری قوی یا ضعیف | حساب جاری | همخوانی | عدم تقارن | نر | Strong or weak sustainability | Current account | Cointegration | Asymmetry | NARDL |
مقاله انگلیسی |
4 |
How expected inflation distorts the current account and the valuation effect
چگونه انتظار می رود تورم حساب جاری و اثر ارزیابی را تحریف کند-2021 We show that the current account balance (CA) is systematically distorted by an inflation
effect , which arises because income on debt is recorded as nominal interest in the currency
of denomination. Since nominal interest includes compensations for expected inflation, in-
creases in the latter must impact the CA. Guided by the relevant international accounting
rules, we impute the inflation effect for 50 economies between 1991 and 2017. When ad-
justing for the inflation effect , the absolute value of yearly CAs drops by 0.13% of GDP on
average. Over the full period, the reduction is a sizable 22.85% of initial GDP for the aver-
age country (26.4% for the U.S.). As the flip side of the CA distortions, the inflation effect
contributes systematically to the well-known valuation effect of net foreign assets. For the
average country, the inflation effect accounts for a twelfth of the valuation effect, for the
U.S., it accounts for well over a half. keywords: تورم | حساب جاری | اثر ارزش گذاری | Inflation | Current account | Valuation effect |
مقاله انگلیسی |
5 |
Trade reforms and current account imbalances
اصلاحات تجاری و عدم تعادل حساب جاری-2021 Several methods quantify soil evaporation by measuring vertical moisture flux or by recording change in mass of
a soil specimen. These methods conventionally consider a non-deformable soil behaviour. However, shrinkage is
the mechanical consequence of a plastic soil to evaporation reducing the area over which evaporation can occur.
For this reason, it is imperative to take into account the gradual densification of the soil sample during evaporation in order to minimize possible measurement errors originating from the way, how the physical conditions
are simulated. To address this challenge, an improved method proposed in this paper takes into account two
aspects of soil deformation, which together have an influence on the total evaporation: (1) the reduced top soil
surface due to radial shrinkage and (2) additional evaporation from the exposed side soil surface when the
sample detaches from the sample holder. Four experiments with kaolin have been conducted in the laboratory to
explore the effect of these two aspects through the proposed methodology. In the tests conducted, considering the
changes in the area of the top soil surface and avoiding the additional evaporation from the exposed side surface
significantly improved the accuracy of evaporation quantification by 25%.
keywords: حساب جاری | آزاد سازی تجارت | Current account | Trade liberalization |
مقاله انگلیسی |
6 |
Current account drivers and exchange rate regimes in Central and Eastern Europe
پیش برندگان دحساب جاری و رژیم های نرخ ارز در اروپای مرکزی و شرقی-2021 The paper seeks to determine the factors that drive the current account dynamics of the 11
EU members from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Panel data models are estimated on
annual data for the period 1997–2017 and both domestic pull factors and external push
factors are included. The models are, as a key innovation, estimated separately for floating
and fixed exchange rate regimes. The current account exhibits substantial persistence in
both cases. For the floaters, the current account is driven by domestic factors while external factors appear unimportant. For the fixers, the current account is mainly driven by
external factors, suggesting there is substantial vulnerability to external developments.
The analysis underscores the importance of the exchange rate regime for the drivers of
the current account balance in the CEE countries.
keywords: تعادل حساب جاری | رژیم نرخ ارز | سیاست های اقتصادی | مرکزی و اروپای شرقی | Current account balance | Exchange rate regime | Economic policies | Central and Eastern Europe |
مقاله انگلیسی |
7 |
Persistent current account imbalances: Are they good or bad for regional and global growth?
عدم تعادل حساب جاری مداوم: آیا آنها برای رشد منطقه ای و جهانی خوب یا بد هستند؟-2021 This paper examines the regional and global growth effects of current account imbalances
in Japan, Germany, and the People’s Republic of China (PRC)—the three largest persistent
surplus countries—and the United States and United Kingdom, the two largest persistent
deficit countries. Controlling for a set of macroeconomic determinants, we use a structural
vector autoregression (SVAR) framework to show that positive shocks to current account
balances in the PRC, Germany, and Japan transmit positive regional and global growth
effects, particularly in the case of spillovers to regional growth from Japan. As expected,
the global growth response is lower in magnitude than the regional growth response. In
addition, the extent of the effect is amplified by global value chains, pointing to the significant role played by trade in intermediate goods. For current account deficit countries, the
magnitudes of the responses of growth to shocks are much lower on average than in the
case of current account surplus countries. We find some marginal positive effects on regional and global growth emanating from a positive shock on the UK current account—i.e., a
reduction in the deficit. For the US, a positive shock to its persistent current account deficit
marginally drags on global growth, possibly reflecting declining import demand and
wealth effects linked to the US dollar’s status as the global reserve currency. Our findings
have important policy implications, particularly in light of discussions in recent years on
whether current account surplus countries are hindering growth abroad.
keywords: عدم تعادل حساب جاری | عدم تعادل اقتصاد کلان | رشد اقتصادی | Current account imbalances | Macroeconomic imbalances | Economic growth |
مقاله انگلیسی |
8 |
A Requiem for ‘‘Blame It on Beijing” interpreting rotating global current account surpluses
مرثیه ای برای «سرزنش آن به گردن پکن» که در حال تفسیر جهانی در حال چرخش است مازاد حساب جاری-2021 Global current account imbalances have reappeared, although the extent and distribution
of these imbalances are noticeably different from those experienced in the middle of the
last decade. What does that recurrence mean for our understanding of the origin and nature of such imbalances? Will imbalances persist over time? Informed by empirical estimates of the determinants of current account imbalances encompassing the period after
the global recession, we find that – as before – the observable manifestations of the factors
driving the global saving glut have limited explanatory power for the time series variation
in imbalances. Fiscal factors determine imbalances, and have accounted for a noticeable
share of the recent variation in imbalances, including in the U.S. and Germany. For
advanced economies, the financial component of the current account has been playing
an increasing role in determining the movements of the account. Examining observable
policy actions, it is clear that net official flows have been associated with some share of
imbalances, although tracing out the motivations for intervention is difficult. Looking forward, it is clear that policy can influence global imbalances, although some component of
the U.S. deficit will likely remain given the U.S. role in generating safe assets.
keywords: تعادل حساب جاری | دارایی های خارجی خالص | صرفه جویی | مروریسم | محافظت از خود | دارایی های ایمن | fi flows | Current account balance | Net foreign assets | Saving glut | Mercantilism | Self-protection | Safe assets | Official flows |
مقاله انگلیسی |
9 |
Assessing the euro area current account
ارزیابی حساب جاری منطقه یورو-2021 This paper assesses the determinants of the evolution of the euro area current account
against the benchmark provided by the empirical model in the Coutinho et al. (2018).
The paper analyses what part of the current account can be explained by fundamental drivers (current account norms) for the euro area aggregate and for the largest five euro area
economies. In addition, it attempts to make a step forward compared with traditional
empirical current account specifications in two respects. First, in light of the growing stock
imbalances across the euro area embodied by the net international investment position
(NIIP), a different specification of current account norms is proposed for their computation,
where the part of the NIIP that is explained by fundamental drivers is taken into account.
Second, alternative specifications of the empirical model are estimated to better capture
the impact of financial centres and corporate net savings, which have been playing an
increasingly relevant role in shaping current account outturns in a number of euro area
countries in recent decades. Results indicate that while the euro area current account
has been in line with fundamentals until the great financial crisis, its post-crisis widening
partly reflects private and public deleveraging. Accounting for NIIPs and corporate net savings contributes to moderately reduce the gap between the euro area current account and
the norm.
keywords: تعادل حساب جاری | تعادل خارجی | منطقه یورو | چیز | صرفه جویی در خالص شرکت | Current account balance | External equilibrium | Euro area | NIIP | Corporate net savings |
مقاله انگلیسی |
10 |
The corporate saving glut and the current account in Germany
GLUT صرفه جویی در شرکت و حساب جاری در آلمان-2021 We investigate, in the case of Germany, the positive correlation between the cyclical components of the corporate saving glut in the non-financial corporate sector and the current
account surplus from a capital account perspective. Employing sign restrictions, our findings suggest that mostly labor supply, world demand and financial friction shocks account
for the joint dynamics of excess corporate saving and the current account surplus.
Household saving shocks, by contrast, cannot explain the correlation. We conclude that,
explained through these factors, the corporate saving glut is an important driver of the
cyclical component of the current account.
keywords: حساب جاری | صرفه جویی در شرکت | شوک های ماکرو | Current account | Corporate saving | Macro shocks |
مقاله انگلیسی |