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نتیجه جستجو - حساب جاری

تعداد مقالات یافته شده: 16
ردیف عنوان نوع
1 The dynamic linkages between current account deficit and budget balance deficit in the South Asian region
ارتباط پویا بین کسری حساب جاری و کسری تراز بودجه در منطقه جنوب آسیا-2021
The issue of twin imbalances is at the forefront of fiscal policy concerns in the South Asian region, fuelled by an ever-going budget deficit and current account deficit over the last five decades. A standard approach is to assume a model in which budget balance influences the current account. We relax this assumption by using a panel data vector autoregression model comprising five South Asian countries. The results show that both budget deficit and current account deficit are mutually causative, which contrasts the unidirectional causality running from fiscal deficit to current account deficit found in prior studies. Further, this bi-causality relationship is also demonstrated in the impulse response analyses. Budget balance in South Asian economies re- sponds positively to a one standard deviation positive shock in the current account balance. Likewise, external balance increases to a one standard deviation positive shock in internal bal- ance. Higher fiscal debt impedes economic growth, which in turn impacts negatively on the budget balance. Our findings lead us to reject ’fiscal policy only’ recommendations to address the twin deficits.
keywords: کسری دوقلو | مدل P-VAR | آزمون علیت پانل گرنجر | تابع پاسخ ضربه ای | آسیای جنوبی | Twin deficits | P-VAR model | Panel Granger causality test | Impulse response function | South Asia
مقاله انگلیسی
2 On the link between current account and fiscal imbalances in the presence of structural breaks: Empirical evidence from Egypt
در ارتباط بین حساب جاری و عدم تعادل مالی در حضور شکاف های ساختاری: شواهد تجربی از مصر-2021
This study provides an empirical analysis for Egypt of the link between fiscal and current account imbalances, which is also known in the literature as the twin deficit hypothesis. We assess the link between the two deficits in the presence of structural breaks using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the bootstrap causality test. Our empirical results suggest that we reject the twin deficit hypothesis over the long-run. Instead, we find support for the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis. The absence of any long-run relationship between the two variables is backed by our bootstrap causality test and our FM-OLS (Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares) regression results. Still, we find support for the existence of a link between the two deficits in the short-run. The results from the ARDL model with breaks contrast with those in earlier studies without breaks. The latter rejected both the twin deficit and the Ricardian equivalence hypotheses.
keywords: عدم تعادل بودجه | عدم تعادل حساب جاری | فرضیه دوقلو | همبستگی ریکاردی | شکاف ساختاری | مصر | Budget imbalance | Current account imbalance | Twin-deficit hypothesis | Ricardian equivalence | ARDL | Structural breaks | Egypt
مقاله انگلیسی
3 Degree of sustainability of current account: evidence from Cote d ^ ’Ivoire using a non-linear approach
درجه پایداری حساب جاری: شواهد از ساحل عاج با استفاده از رویکرد غیر خطی-2021
The current account deficit is a macroeconomic indicator that provides information on the health of an economy. Its sustainability is particularly crucial for developing countries such as Cote dIvoire, one of the largest economies ^ in West Africa. Given the countrys exposure to external vulnerability, this paper analysed the degree of sustainability of its current account. Beyond this, the study looked at the resilience of the economy to external shocks by examining how exports behave following an asymmetric shock on imports plus interest on external borrowing. To this end, the model developed by Shin et al. (2014) was applied to the intertemporal approach to current account sustainability using quarterly macroeconomic data from 1985q1 to 2017q4. The study found that Cote ^ dIvoires current account balance is sustainable. However, this sustainability is weak in the sense of Hakkio and Rush (1991), thus leading to a high risk of government failure in this respect. Also, the study shows that exports react differently to asymmetric shocks on increased imports, with a return to equilibrium often very slow. Therefore, the strengthening and stability of the socio-political environment is to be encouraged, as well as the implementation of policies aimed at sound public finance management and minimising the economys vulnerability to external shocks
keywords: پایداری قوی یا ضعیف | حساب جاری | همخوانی | عدم تقارن | نر | Strong or weak sustainability | Current account | Cointegration | Asymmetry | NARDL
مقاله انگلیسی
4 How expected inflation distorts the current account and the valuation effect
چگونه انتظار می رود تورم حساب جاری و اثر ارزیابی را تحریف کند-2021
We show that the current account balance (CA) is systematically distorted by an inflation effect , which arises because income on debt is recorded as nominal interest in the currency of denomination. Since nominal interest includes compensations for expected inflation, in- creases in the latter must impact the CA. Guided by the relevant international accounting rules, we impute the inflation effect for 50 economies between 1991 and 2017. When ad- justing for the inflation effect , the absolute value of yearly CAs drops by 0.13% of GDP on average. Over the full period, the reduction is a sizable 22.85% of initial GDP for the aver- age country (26.4% for the U.S.). As the flip side of the CA distortions, the inflation effect contributes systematically to the well-known valuation effect of net foreign assets. For the average country, the inflation effect accounts for a twelfth of the valuation effect, for the U.S., it accounts for well over a half.
keywords: تورم | حساب جاری | اثر ارزش گذاری | Inflation | Current account | Valuation effect
مقاله انگلیسی
5 Trade reforms and current account imbalances
اصلاحات تجاری و عدم تعادل حساب جاری-2021
Several methods quantify soil evaporation by measuring vertical moisture flux or by recording change in mass of a soil specimen. These methods conventionally consider a non-deformable soil behaviour. However, shrinkage is the mechanical consequence of a plastic soil to evaporation reducing the area over which evaporation can occur. For this reason, it is imperative to take into account the gradual densification of the soil sample during evaporation in order to minimize possible measurement errors originating from the way, how the physical conditions are simulated. To address this challenge, an improved method proposed in this paper takes into account two aspects of soil deformation, which together have an influence on the total evaporation: (1) the reduced top soil surface due to radial shrinkage and (2) additional evaporation from the exposed side soil surface when the sample detaches from the sample holder. Four experiments with kaolin have been conducted in the laboratory to explore the effect of these two aspects through the proposed methodology. In the tests conducted, considering the changes in the area of the top soil surface and avoiding the additional evaporation from the exposed side surface significantly improved the accuracy of evaporation quantification by 25%.
keywords: حساب جاری | آزاد سازی تجارت | Current account | Trade liberalization
مقاله انگلیسی
6 Current account drivers and exchange rate regimes in Central and Eastern Europe
پیش برندگان دحساب جاری و رژیم های نرخ ارز در اروپای مرکزی و شرقی-2021
The paper seeks to determine the factors that drive the current account dynamics of the 11 EU members from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Panel data models are estimated on annual data for the period 1997–2017 and both domestic pull factors and external push factors are included. The models are, as a key innovation, estimated separately for floating and fixed exchange rate regimes. The current account exhibits substantial persistence in both cases. For the floaters, the current account is driven by domestic factors while external factors appear unimportant. For the fixers, the current account is mainly driven by external factors, suggesting there is substantial vulnerability to external developments. The analysis underscores the importance of the exchange rate regime for the drivers of the current account balance in the CEE countries.
keywords: تعادل حساب جاری | رژیم نرخ ارز | سیاست های اقتصادی | مرکزی و اروپای شرقی | Current account balance | Exchange rate regime | Economic policies | Central and Eastern Europe
مقاله انگلیسی
7 Persistent current account imbalances: Are they good or bad for regional and global growth?
عدم تعادل حساب جاری مداوم: آیا آنها برای رشد منطقه ای و جهانی خوب یا بد هستند؟-2021
This paper examines the regional and global growth effects of current account imbalances in Japan, Germany, and the People’s Republic of China (PRC)—the three largest persistent surplus countries—and the United States and United Kingdom, the two largest persistent deficit countries. Controlling for a set of macroeconomic determinants, we use a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework to show that positive shocks to current account balances in the PRC, Germany, and Japan transmit positive regional and global growth effects, particularly in the case of spillovers to regional growth from Japan. As expected, the global growth response is lower in magnitude than the regional growth response. In addition, the extent of the effect is amplified by global value chains, pointing to the significant role played by trade in intermediate goods. For current account deficit countries, the magnitudes of the responses of growth to shocks are much lower on average than in the case of current account surplus countries. We find some marginal positive effects on regional and global growth emanating from a positive shock on the UK current account—i.e., a reduction in the deficit. For the US, a positive shock to its persistent current account deficit marginally drags on global growth, possibly reflecting declining import demand and wealth effects linked to the US dollar’s status as the global reserve currency. Our findings have important policy implications, particularly in light of discussions in recent years on whether current account surplus countries are hindering growth abroad.
keywords: عدم تعادل حساب جاری | عدم تعادل اقتصاد کلان | رشد اقتصادی | Current account imbalances | Macroeconomic imbalances | Economic growth
مقاله انگلیسی
8 A Requiem for ‘‘Blame It on Beijing” interpreting rotating global current account surpluses
مرثیه ای برای «سرزنش آن به گردن پکن» که در حال تفسیر جهانی در حال چرخش است مازاد حساب جاری-2021
Global current account imbalances have reappeared, although the extent and distribution of these imbalances are noticeably different from those experienced in the middle of the last decade. What does that recurrence mean for our understanding of the origin and nature of such imbalances? Will imbalances persist over time? Informed by empirical estimates of the determinants of current account imbalances encompassing the period after the global recession, we find that – as before – the observable manifestations of the factors driving the global saving glut have limited explanatory power for the time series variation in imbalances. Fiscal factors determine imbalances, and have accounted for a noticeable share of the recent variation in imbalances, including in the U.S. and Germany. For advanced economies, the financial component of the current account has been playing an increasing role in determining the movements of the account. Examining observable policy actions, it is clear that net official flows have been associated with some share of imbalances, although tracing out the motivations for intervention is difficult. Looking forward, it is clear that policy can influence global imbalances, although some component of the U.S. deficit will likely remain given the U.S. role in generating safe assets.
keywords: تعادل حساب جاری | دارایی های خارجی خالص | صرفه جویی | مروریسم | محافظت از خود | دارایی های ایمن | fi flows | Current account balance | Net foreign assets | Saving glut | Mercantilism | Self-protection | Safe assets | Official flows
مقاله انگلیسی
9 Assessing the euro area current account
ارزیابی حساب جاری منطقه یورو-2021
This paper assesses the determinants of the evolution of the euro area current account against the benchmark provided by the empirical model in the Coutinho et al. (2018). The paper analyses what part of the current account can be explained by fundamental drivers (current account norms) for the euro area aggregate and for the largest five euro area economies. In addition, it attempts to make a step forward compared with traditional empirical current account specifications in two respects. First, in light of the growing stock imbalances across the euro area embodied by the net international investment position (NIIP), a different specification of current account norms is proposed for their computation, where the part of the NIIP that is explained by fundamental drivers is taken into account. Second, alternative specifications of the empirical model are estimated to better capture the impact of financial centres and corporate net savings, which have been playing an increasingly relevant role in shaping current account outturns in a number of euro area countries in recent decades. Results indicate that while the euro area current account has been in line with fundamentals until the great financial crisis, its post-crisis widening partly reflects private and public deleveraging. Accounting for NIIPs and corporate net savings contributes to moderately reduce the gap between the euro area current account and the norm.
keywords: تعادل حساب جاری | تعادل خارجی | منطقه یورو | چیز | صرفه جویی در خالص شرکت | Current account balance | External equilibrium | Euro area | NIIP | Corporate net savings
مقاله انگلیسی
10 The corporate saving glut and the current account in Germany
GLUT صرفه جویی در شرکت و حساب جاری در آلمان-2021
We investigate, in the case of Germany, the positive correlation between the cyclical components of the corporate saving glut in the non-financial corporate sector and the current account surplus from a capital account perspective. Employing sign restrictions, our findings suggest that mostly labor supply, world demand and financial friction shocks account for the joint dynamics of excess corporate saving and the current account surplus. Household saving shocks, by contrast, cannot explain the correlation. We conclude that, explained through these factors, the corporate saving glut is an important driver of the cyclical component of the current account.
keywords: حساب جاری | صرفه جویی در شرکت | شوک های ماکرو | Current account | Corporate saving | Macro shocks
مقاله انگلیسی
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