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نتیجه جستجو - خوش بینی

تعداد مقالات یافته شده: 13
ردیف عنوان نوع
1 Implications of green optimism upon sustainable supply chain management
پیامدهای خوش بینی سبز بر مدیریت پایدار زنجیره تأمین-2021
In recent years, managers have increasingly integrated sustainability into their business models. However, they might overestimate the premium that average consumers are willing to pay for the environment. In this paper, we formulate a game-theoretical model that illustrates the impacts of green optimism which refers to managers’ optimistic bias about consumer environmental awareness. We consider a sustainable supply chain in which one manufacturer invests in green product development and sells the green product through one retailer. Each firm within the supply chain is operated by one manager who is either realistic or optimistic. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find that managers’ optimistic bias might discourage investment in green product development. We also find that green optimism is always detrimental to the upstream manufacturer, but might be beneficial to the downstream retailer. Surprisingly, under certain conditions, green optimism can be detrimental to all stakeholders, i.e., firms in the supply chain, consumers, and the environment. This study suggests an interesting link between supply chain management and human resource management; that is, within a sustainable supply chain those managers who are optimistic about the future of green business might be an obstacle to the success of green business.
Keywords: Supply chain management | Sustainability | Optimism | Game theory | Green product development
مقاله انگلیسی
2 Public law enforcement under ambiguity
اجرای قانون عمومی در هاله ای از ابهام-2020
In real life situations, potential offenders may only have a vague idea of their own probability of getting caught and possibly, convicted. As they have beliefs regarding this probability, they may exhibit optimism or pessimism. Thus there exists a discrepancy between the objective expected fine and the subjective expected fine. In this context, we investigate how the fact that the choice whether or not to commit an harmful act is framed as a decision under ambiguity can modify the standard Beckerian results regarding the optimal fine and the optimal resources that should be invested in detection and conviction.
Keywords: Deterrence | Pessimism | Optimism | Ambiguity
مقاله انگلیسی
3 Global well-posedness and uniform boundedness of urban crime models: One-dimensional case
حسن نیت جهانی و محدودیت یکنواخت مدلهای جرم شهری: پرونده یک بعدی-2020
In this paper, we study a PDE system which was proposed by Short et al. (2008) [42]to describe the spatial-temporal dynamics in urban criminal activity. By establishing a user-friendly integral inequality, we prove the global existence, uniqueness and uniform boundedness of the classical solution to this system in one-dimension space. Our result extends the local well-posedness by Rodríguez and Bertozzi (2010) [38]to global.
Keywords: Global well-posedness | Logarithmic sensitivity | Urban crime model
مقاله انگلیسی
4 Optimism and opioid misuse among justice-involved children
خوش بینی و سوء مصرف مواد مخدر میان کودکان عدالت خواه-2020
Aim: Adolescents in the criminal justice system, called justice-involved children (JIC), are particularly vulnerable in the modern opioid misuse (OM) epidemic. After release, relapse and overdose occur at higher rates than the general population. The current study assesses optimism and likelihood of P30D consumption of non-prescription or illicit opioids among JIC. Methods: The study examines a sample of 79,960 JIC from the Florida Department of Juvenile Justice. Multivariate logistic regression was employed, controlling for gender, race, family income, age, history of mental problems, history of depression, and county of residence. Results: JIC who reported very low optimism on the final screen had over 8 times the odds of meeting criteria for P30D OM compared to those with high optimism while adjusting for covariates. Conclusions: Further research is needed to understand the potential for optimism to serve as a protective factor. Optimism can be developed, and therefore can possibly be incorporated to design novel interventions or integrated into empirically validated treatment programs to precipitate uptake.
Keywords: Juvenile justice | Opioid misuse | Optimism | Adolescents | Hopelessness
مقاله انگلیسی
5 بیماری لایم: چشم انداز علوم اجتماعی
سال انتشار: 2019 - تعداد صفحات فایل pdf انگلیسی: 7 - تعداد صفحات فایل doc فارسی: 19
این مقاله یک بررسی ادبیات انتخابی از آثار علوم اجتماعی منتشر شده در مورد بیماری لایم است که از سایر مقالات منتشر شده در مورد خطرات مشابه سلامتی استفاده می کند. این آثار لایر بورلیوز را به عنوان یک نمونه "کهن الگویی" از خطرات عفونی مدرن ارائه می دهند. این یک خطر "نامرئی" است که از تعاملات بین فعالیت های انسانی ، اکوسیستم ها و عوامل بیماری زا ناشی می شود. برای مقابله با این خطر ، مقامات بهداشتی اقدامات پیشگیری مبتنی بر فرد را ارتقا می دهند. بنابراین ، درک از جمعیت عمومی باید بهتر شود: متفاوت از تصورات کارشناسان ، برداشت های عمومی جامعه از نظر اجتماعی متفاوت است ، متمایل به "سوگیری خوش بینی" است و تحت تأثیر داستان های شخصی است. همچنین نباید معضلات پیش روی عموم مردم هنگام تأمل در مورد رفتارهای پیشگیرانه را فراموش کرد.
کلید واژه ها: بیماری لایم | علوم اجتماعی | بورلیا
مقاله ترجمه شده
6 Applying the perceived probability of risk and bias toward optimism: Implications for travel decisions in the face of natural disasters
به کارگیری احتمال مشاهده شده خطرات و انحراف به سوی خوش بینی: دلالت ها برای تصمیمات مسافرت در مواجهه با فجایع طبیعی-2018
Unperceived risk leads to lack of preparedness. This study aims to examine tourists risk perception and travel decisions using as variables demographics, knowledge about safety, and country of residence. Samples were gathered in Thailand, Japan, Australia, and Indonesia. A total of 916 completed questionnaires of five replicated surveys were used in this study. More than halve of the respondents whose country had been affected by the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 did not perceive tsunami risk when 10 years has passed. Frequency of tsunami occurrence was positively related to perceived tsunami probability. This study confirms the theory of probability that low frequency of a natural disaster results in unperceived risks. Even if their destination had a history of tsunamis, tourists perceived risk of another such occurrence happening during their visit is low (that is, the risk of natural disaster is low). While the literature in earth science found that residents of risky areas tend to be optimistic about the place where they live, our study extends the theory of optimistic bias to indicate that the same optimistic bias is applicable to tourists. Asia and Southeast Asia were perceived as tsunami-prone but tourists still travelled there. Our study found that tourist risk perception was related to frequency of tsunami occurrence and was destination specific. The perception of probability of a natural disaster is also related to proximity and past experience. Replications are necessary to validate results before generalization.
keywords: Perceived risk |Risk management |Disaster preparedness |Tsunamis in Japan |Replications in flight surveys |Cross validation |Theory of optimistic bias and probability
مقاله انگلیسی
7 Analysts experience and interpretation of discretionary accruals in predicting future earnings
تجربه تحلیلگران و تفسیر اقدامات احتیاطی در پیش بینی درآمدهای آتی-2018
Our paper investigates whether analysts experience mitigates their forecast over-optimism associated with high discretionary accruals. Prior literature shows that analysts forecast optimism is associated with high total accruals and working capital accruals, and this forecasting inefficiency can be mitigated by analysts experience. We extend this line of research by first showing that forecast over-optimism is associated with higher discretionary accruals. We then show that analysts experience with the related industry and their experience of decomposing earnings into cash flows and accruals appear to mitigate analysts over-optimism related to discretionary accruals while analysts firm and general experiences do not. Our study provides new evidence on how experience affects analysts use of discretionary accruals.
keywords: Analysts forecasts |Analysts experience |Discretionary accruals |Analysts optimism
مقاله انگلیسی
8 خوش بینی کارآفرینانه، دسترس پذیری اعتبارات، و هزینه ی تأمین مالی: شواهدی از کسب و کارهای کوچک ایالات متحده
سال انتشار: 2017 - تعداد صفحات فایل pdf انگلیسی: 19 - تعداد صفحات فایل doc فارسی: 47
ما با استفاده از نمونه ی بزرگی از کسب و کارهای کوچک ایالات متحده و یک معیار جدید برای خوش بینی، نقش خوش بینی کارآفرینانه در اعطای وام به کسب و کارهای کوچک را مورد بررسی قرار دادیم. ما شواهدی ارائه دادیم که پرداخت وام به کارآفرینان خوش بین از سوی وام دهندگان، به صورت جیره ای و محدود نیست. کاملاً برعکس، نتایج ما نشان می دهد که آنها دسترسی بهتری به اعتبارات دارند و هزینه ی کمتری هم برای تأمین مالی پرداخت می کنند. نتایج ما برای معیارهای ثانویه ی خوش بینی و کنترل های اعمالی بر اطلاعات شخصی بین وام دهندگان و وام گیرندگان نیز صادق است.
کلیدواژه ها: اعطای وام به کسب و کارهای کوچک | خوش بینی کارآفرینانه | هزینه ی تأمین مالی
مقاله ترجمه شده
9 Optimism and pessimism in the general population: Psychometric properties of the Life Orientation Test (LOT-R)
خوش بینی و بدبینی در جمعیت عمومی : خواص ازمون روان سنجی از گرایش زندگی (LOT-R)-2017
Background/Objective: The Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R) is often used to assess dispositional optimism. The aims of this study were to test psychometric properties of the LOT-R, to provide normative scores, and to test the association between optimism and several psychological, sociodemographic, and behavioral factors. Method: A randomly selected German general population community sample with an age range of 18-80 years (N = 9,711) was surveyed. Results: The Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) proved two (correlated) factors: Optimism and Pessimism. Invariance tests across gender and age groups confirmed metric invariance. There were only small gender differences in the LOT-R total score (M = 16.4 for females and M = 16.1 for males). The correlation between the subscales Optimism and Pessimism was strong for young and well educated people. Low optimism mean scores were observed for unemployed people, people with low income, smokers, and obese people. Normative scores of the LOTR are provided. Conclusions: The study confirmed the bidimensional structure of the LOT-R and invariance across age and gender. We can recommend using this instrument for measuring dispositional optimism and pessimism in epidemiological research and clinical practice.
KEYWORDS : Optimism | Pessimism | Factor structure | Measurement | invariance | Descriptive survey | study
مقاله انگلیسی
10 Upward social comparison on social network sites and depressive symptoms: A moderated mediation model of self-esteem and optimism
مقایسۀ رو به بالا در سایت های شبکه اجتماعی و نشانه های افسردگی: یک مدل میانجی گری مداوم از اعتماد به نفس و خوش بینی-2017
Studies have revealed that upward social comparison on social network sites (SNSs) was a risk factor for depres sive symptoms, however, little is known about the underlying processes that may mediate or moderate this re lationship. This study extended prior research by examining the mediating role of self-esteem and the moderating role of optimism in this relationship. A sample of 1205 Chinese undergraduate students completed measures of upward social comparison on SNSs, depressive symptoms, self-esteem, and optimism. Results showed that self-esteem partially mediated the relation between upward social comparison on SNSs and depres sive symptoms. In addition, the direct effect of upward social comparison on SNSs on depressive symptoms and the mediating effect of self-esteem were both moderated by optimism. The two effects were more potent for in dividuals with low optimism than for those with high optimism. The present study contributes to a better under standing of how and when upward social comparison on SNSs increases the risk of depressive symptoms. Limitations and implications of this study are discussed.
Keywords: Upward social comparison | Social network sites | Self-esteem | Optimism | Depressive symptoms
مقاله انگلیسی
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