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1 |
American business cycles 1889–1913: An accounting approach
چرخه های تجاری آمریکا 1889-1913: یک رویکرد حسابداری-2021 This paper quantitatively investigates the Depression of the 1890s and the 1907 recession
in the United States. Business Cycle Accounting decomposes economic fluctuations into their
contributing factors. The results suggest that both the 1890s and the 1907 recessions were
primarily caused by factors that affect the efficiency wedge, i.e. slumps in the economy’s factor
productivity. Distortions to the labor wedge played a less important role. Models with financial
market frictions that translate into the efficiency wedge are the most promising candidates for
explaining the recessionary episodes.
keywords: Business cycles Depression of the 1890s | Recession of 1907 |
مقاله انگلیسی |
2 |
Credit expansion, bank liberalization, and structural change in bank asset accounts
گسترش اعتبار، آزاد سازی بانک، و تغییر ساختاری در حسابهای دارایی بانک-2021 This paper studies the links among credit supply expansion, commercial bank asset ac-
count structures, and the housing boom preceding the 20 07–20 09 financial crisis. We
propose a real business cycle model with a housing market and financial intermediaries
(banks) subject to leverage constraints. In our model, banks channel funds to firms for
production and provide collateralized loans to mortgage borrowers; thus, banks determine
their asset account structures endogenously. We show that a credit supply expansion to
banks can account for four key facts that characterize the housing boom: (1) an increase
in real house prices; (2) an increase in the mortgage-to-GDP ratio; (3) a decrease in the
real mortgage interest rate; and (4) an increase in the ratio of mortgages to firm loans in
commercial bank asset accounts. In our model, a credit supply expansion to banks can also
generate a boom-bust cycle through the collateral value channel via mortgage borrowers.
Asset-side bank regulations that reduce excessive mortgage issuance during a credit boom
can help to dampen the subsequent economic downturn. keywords: گسترش اعتبار | لیبرال سازی بانک | ورق بانکی | چرخه کسب و کار | Credit expansion | Bank liberalization | Bank balance sheet | Business cycle |
مقاله انگلیسی |
3 |
Use of standardized bioinformatics for the analysis of fungal DNA signatures applied to sample provenance
استفاده از بیوانفورماتیک استاندارد برای تجزیه و تحلیل امضاهای DNA قارچی اعمال شده برای پیشروی نمونه-2020 The use of environmental trace material to aid criminal investigations is an ongoing
field of research within forensic science. The application of environmental material thus far has focused upon a variety of
different objectives relevant to forensic biology, including sample provenance (also referred to as sample
attribution). The capability to predict the provenance or origin of an environmental DNA sample would
be an advantageous addition to the suite of investigative tools currently available. A metabarcoding
approach is often used to predict sample provenance, through the extraction and comparison of the DNA
signatures found within different environmental materials, such as the bacteria within soil or fungi
within dust. Such approaches are combined with bioinformatics workflows and statistical modelling,
often as part of large-scale study, with less emphasis on the investigation of the adaptation of these
methods to a smaller scale method for forensic use. The present work was investigating a small-scale
approach as an adaptation of a larger metabarcoding study to develop a model for global sample
provenance using fungal DNA signatures collected from dust swabs. This adaptation was to facilitate a
standardized method for consistent, reproducible sample treatment, including bioinformatics processing
and final application of resulting data to the available prediction model. To investigate this small-scale
method, 76 DNA samples were treated as anonymous test samples and analyzed using the standardized
process to demonstrate and evaluate processing and customized sequence data analysis. This testing
included samples originating from countries previously used to train the model, samples artificially
mixed to represent multiple or mixed countries, as well as outgroup samples. Positive controls were also
developed to monitor laboratory processing and bioinformatics analysis. Through this evaluation we
were able to demonstrate that the samples could be processed and analyzed in a consistent manner,
facilitated by a relatively user-friendly bioinformatic pipeline for sequence data analysis. Such
investigation into standardized analyses and application of metabarcoding data is of key importance for
the future use of applied microbiology in forensic science. Keywords: Forensic microbiology | Bioinformatics | Metabarcoding | Sample provenance |
مقاله انگلیسی |
4 |
Should the maximum duration of fixed-term contracts increase in recessions? Evidence from a law reform
آیا حداکثر مدت قراردادهای مدت معین در رکود باید افزایش یابد؟ شواهدی از اصلاح قانون-2020 Fixed-term labour contracts (FTCs) may be an important tool to promote employment, particularly in
recessions and when dismissal costs of open-ended contracts are high. In this case, making FTCs more
flexible during downturns may be useful. We assess this idea by examining the effects of a law that
increased the maximum duration of FTCs in Portugal during the 2012 recession. Our analysis is based on
regression-discontinuity and difference-in-differences methods and employer-employee panel data. We
find a considerable take up of this measure, as conversions to permanent contracts drop by 20%. Worker
churning is reduced, as mobility of eligible fixed-term workers to other firms drops by 10%. Employment
also increases but only for younger workers.
Keywords: Employment law | Worker mobility | Labour segmentation | Policy evaluation |
مقاله انگلیسی |
5 |
Firm characteristics and capabilities that enable superior performance in recessions
ویژگی ها و قابلیت های محکم که عملکرد برتر را در دوران رکود اقتصادی امکان پذیر می کند-2020 Recessions are recurring events in which most firms suffer severe impacts while others are affected less or may even prosper. Notwithstanding, strategic management scholars have made little progress in understanding the reasons for these differences in performance, particularly in unstable macroeconomic environments such as Latin America. In this study, we link literatures on entrepreneurship and improvisation to create an integrative model that indicates characteristics and capabilities that enable a firm to adapt successfully to the recessionary en- vironment. We use survey data from Brazilian firms on the 2008–2009 global recession, and we find that the firms that have superior performance in recessions are those that had, before the recession, 1) a propensity to recognize opportunities and 2) improvisation capabilities for fast and creative actions. We also find a moderating effect of entrepreneurial orientation. Keywords: Recession | Opportunity | Improvisation | Entrepreneurship | Latin America |
مقاله انگلیسی |
6 |
Access to resources and entrepreneurial well-being: A self-efficacy approach
دسترسی به منابع و رفاه کارآفرینی: رویکرد خودکارآمدی-2020 In this study, we examine an important predictor and outcome associated with well-being for entrepreneurs: access to resources and persistence. Drawing on social-cognitive theory, we contend that access to resources helps people feel confidence in abilities to be successful entrepreneurs, resulting in greater well-being during venture development. We push the model further by hypothesizing that well-being is positively related to persistence in venture creation activities. Employing an experimental, vignette-based approach, we test the model by asking 258 subjects to consider how prospective entrepreneurs respond to varying contexts of resource accessibility (low vs. high) in terms of their self-efficacy, well-being, and persistence. Results of serial mediator regression analysis support the hypothesized model such that greater access to resources is associated with higher levels of multiple indicators of well-being such as happiness, life satisfaction, and psychological well- being through a self-efficacy mechanism. We also find that entrepreneurial persistence increases through this mechanism. Keywords: Recession | Opportunity | Improvisation | Entrepreneurship | Latin America |
مقاله انگلیسی |
7 |
واکنش خطوط هوایی اروپا به همهگیری COVID-19 - انقباض، تلفیق و ملاحظات آینده برای تجارت و مدیریت خطوط هوایی
سال انتشار: 2020 - تعداد صفحات فایل pdf انگلیسی: 7 - تعداد صفحات فایل doc فارسی: 30 همهگیری COVID-19 و محدودیتهای مسافرتی ناشی از آن و کاهش تقاضای مصرفکننده منجر به کاهش چشمگیر و بیسابقه پروازهای مسافربری در سراسر اروپا شد. با بسته شدن مرزها، توصیه دولتهای ملی به غیر از موارد ضروری سفر و تقاضای مسافر ناپدید شد، خطوط هوایی اروپایی مجبور شدند به سرعت به این رکود واکنش نشان دهند و اقدامات بیسابقهای برای صرفهجویی در هزینهها برای محافظت از تجارت خود اعمال کنند. هدف این مقاله بررسی روشهایی است که خطوط هوایی مسافربری بزرگ اروپایی به اوج بحران COVID-19 در دوره مارس تا می 2020 پاسخ دادند. با استفاده از دادههای Eurocontrol، مدیر شبکه اروپا، این مقاله پاسخهای فردی را شناسایی میکند. اپراتورهای هواپیمایی و شرکتهای مادر تصمیم گرفتند تا عملیات خود را منعقد کرده و یکپارچه کنند. یافته ها نشان می دهد که تغییرات در عملیات پرواز، منطقیسازی ناوگان، کاهش تعداد کارکنان و پیکربندی مجدد شبکهها و ظرفیت آنها رایجترین پاسخها بود. این مقاله با بحث در مورد ملاحظات آینده برای تجارت و مدیریت خطوط هوایی به پایان می رسد زیرا شرکت های هواپیمایی اروپایی به دنبال بازسازی عملیات خود و انطباق با واقعیت جدید پس از کووید هستند.
کلید واژه ها: خطوط هوایی | کووید | تقاضا | پاسخ های کسب و کار | اروپا |
مقاله ترجمه شده |
8 |
Spatially varying impacts of built environment factors on rail transit ridership at station level: A case study in Guangzhou, China
تأثیرات مکانی متغیر از عوامل محیطی ساخته شده بر رکود حمل و نقل ریلی در سطح ایستگاه: یک مطالعه موردی در گوانگژو ، چین-2020 Understanding the relationship between the rail transit ridership and the built environment is crucial to promoting
transit-oriented development and sustainable urban growth. Geographically weighted regression (GWR)
models have previously been employed to reveal the spatial differences in such relationships at the station level.
However, few studies characterized the built environment at a fine scale and associated them with rail transit
usage. Moreover, none of the existing studies attempted to categorize the stations for policy-making considering
varying impacts of the built environment. In this study, taking Guangzhou as an example, we integrated multisource
spatial big data, such as high spatial resolution remote sensing images, points of interest (POIs), social
media and building footprint data to precisely quantify the characteristics of the built environment. This was
combined with a GWR model to understand how the impacts of the fine-scale built environment factors on the
rail transit ridership vary across the study region. The k-means clustering method was employed to identify
distinct station groups based on the coefficients of the GWR model at the local stations. Policy zoning was
proposed based on the results and differentiated planning guidance was suggested for different zones. These
recommendations are expected to help increase rail transit usage, inform rail transit planning (to relieve the
traffic burden on currently crowed lines), and re-allocate industrial and living facilities to reduce the commute
for the residents. The policy and planning implications are crucial for the coordinated development of the rail
transit system and land use. Keywords: Transit ridership | Built environment | Geographically weighted regression | K-means | Guangzhou |
مقاله انگلیسی |
9 |
Reassessing the law, finance, and growth nexus after the recent Great recession
ارزیابی مجدد قانون ، مالی و پیوند رشد پس از رکود اقتصادی بزرگ اخیر-2019 The paper provides a reassessment of the relationship between financial structure, finan- cial development, and economic growth conducting cross-section and panel econometric analyses for a sample of 62 countries over 1980–2016. In line with the traditional litera- ture, we confirm the existence of a positive cross-country relationship between the legal system, financial development, and growth even including the experience of the recent Great recession; in addition, when jointly assessing the effect of financial structure and financial development on growth, it emerges that a more bank-oriented economy enjoys higher benefits, in terms of long-run real GDP per capita growth, than a market-oriented one. When we consider variations across countries and over time, we find that both fi- nancial structure and financial development affect growth but in an opposite way as the cross-section analysis. In particular, when we control for their joint effect on growth, we observe a positive impact of market-based financial systems, and a negative impact of the overall financial development. We also provide evidence of the existence of a positive and significant relationship between economic growth and Shadow banking during the 2002—2016 period, highlighting the crucial role played by non-bank financial intermediation in complementing traditional banking and in affecting the real economy. Keywords: Economic growth | Financial structure | Financial development | Legal institutions | Shadow banking |
مقاله انگلیسی |
10 |
Estimation of capital requirements in downturn conditions via the CBV model: Evidence from the Greek banking sector
برآورد نیاز سرمایه در شرایط رکود از طریق مدل CBV: مدارکی از بخش بانکی یونان-2019 One of the main drawbacks of the original CreditRisk+ methodology is that it models the default rates of the
sectors (e.g. industry) as independently distributed random variables. Such an assumption has been considered
as unrealistic and various approaches have been proposed in order to overcome this issue. To the best of our
knowledge, such approaches have not been applied to portfolios associated with periods characterized by severe
downturn economic conditions. In our work, apart from the standard CreditRisk+ model, we have also implemented
two recent approaches that allow the dependence between sector default rates and can account for
macroeconomic factors and have fed each model with portfolio data from a major Greek bank spanning the
period 2008–2015. Based on our empirical analysis, it became evident that among the three models only the CBV
model, incorporating a nonlinear (and nonconvex) mathematical programming procedure, could follow the pace
of the crisis and provided realistic estimations regarding the credit risk capital required. Finally, it is shown that
the economic capital estimates derived by that model could have been used as an early warning indicator for the
banking crisis (at least for the case of Greece) that may begin within the next couple of years, since there is a
clear correlation between the model estimations and the values of well-established early warning indicators for
banking crises. Keywords: Economic capital | Nonlinear programming | CreditRisk+ | Sector correlation |
مقاله انگلیسی |