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نتیجه جستجو - شوک

تعداد مقالات یافته شده: 57
ردیف عنوان نوع
1 The dynamic linkages between current account deficit and budget balance deficit in the South Asian region
ارتباط پویا بین کسری حساب جاری و کسری تراز بودجه در منطقه جنوب آسیا-2021
The issue of twin imbalances is at the forefront of fiscal policy concerns in the South Asian region, fuelled by an ever-going budget deficit and current account deficit over the last five decades. A standard approach is to assume a model in which budget balance influences the current account. We relax this assumption by using a panel data vector autoregression model comprising five South Asian countries. The results show that both budget deficit and current account deficit are mutually causative, which contrasts the unidirectional causality running from fiscal deficit to current account deficit found in prior studies. Further, this bi-causality relationship is also demonstrated in the impulse response analyses. Budget balance in South Asian economies re- sponds positively to a one standard deviation positive shock in the current account balance. Likewise, external balance increases to a one standard deviation positive shock in internal bal- ance. Higher fiscal debt impedes economic growth, which in turn impacts negatively on the budget balance. Our findings lead us to reject ’fiscal policy only’ recommendations to address the twin deficits.
keywords: کسری دوقلو | مدل P-VAR | آزمون علیت پانل گرنجر | تابع پاسخ ضربه ای | آسیای جنوبی | Twin deficits | P-VAR model | Panel Granger causality test | Impulse response function | South Asia
مقاله انگلیسی
2 Dynamic resilience for biological wastewater treatment processes: Interpreting data for process management and the potential for knowledge discovery
انعطاف پذیری پویا برای فرآیندهای تصفیه بیولوژیکی فاضلاب: تفسیر داده ها برای مدیریت فرآیند و پتانسیل برای کشف دانش-2021
Climate change, population growth and increasing regulation are causing wastewater treatment plants to become increasingly stressed, especially in countries like the UK, where many of these systems date back to the early part of the 20th century. Understanding resilience dynamics for these ageing wastewater assets represents a funda- mental step in classifying multi-dimensional water stressors toward preventing severe pollution incidents. This paper explores the potential of a novel dynamic resilience approach to assess and predict the dynamic resilience of biological wastewater treatment based on the separation of stressor events (cause) and process stress (effect) to consider the deviation from reference conditions. The approach presented provides a fundamental link between (1) conventional activated sludge modelling methodologies, (2) actual biological wastewater process instrument data (potential for knowledge discovery) and (3) the characterisation of dynamic resilience in wastewater treatment processes. Results first present the dynamic resilience approach by modelling simulated shock flow conditions on an activated sludge plant, then incorporates ten years of wastewater process instrument data to demonstrate the actual dynamic resilience. The aim is to represent the “dynamic resilience” as self-ordering windows, a visual knowledge base (three dimensional, heat map), which operational staff can easily interpret. The outcomes presented suggest that such an approach is feasible and has the potential for real-time identifi- cation of conditions that result in pollution incidents based on actual historical process instrument data (knowledge discovery). Also, the methods presented could be extended to develop an improved understanding of wastewater system resilience under a range of future stressor scenarios.
keywords: انعطاف پذیری پویا | مدل سازی تاثیر فرآیند | استرس فرایند | مدل سازی پویا | مدل سازی فاضلاب | Dynamic resilience | Process impact modelling | Process stress | Dynamic modelling | Wastewater modelling
مقاله انگلیسی
3 Consumption responses to COVID-19 payments: Evidence from a natural experiment and bank account data
پاسخ های مصرف به پرداخت های Covid-19: شواهد از یک آزمایش طبیعی و اطلاعات حساب بانکی-2021
The COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns have had severe impacts on household budgets around the world. A large number of studies have documented drastic declines in income, spending, and debt payments in various countries, including the United States ( Baker et al., 2020a; Chetty et al., 2020; Coibion et al., 2020a; Cox et al., 2020 ), the United King- dom ( Hacioglu et al., 2020; Carvalho et al., 2020 ), Spain ( García-Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2020 ), Sweden and Denmark ( Sheridan et al., 2020 ), and Japan ( Watanabe, 2020 ). Moreover, the pandemic shock disproportionately affected groups with certain socioeconomic backgrounds and from different sectors; for instance, those in the face-to-face service industry, those
keywords: مصرف | بانک | کووید -19 | محرک | تمایل حاشیه ای برای مصرف | آزمایش طبیعی | ژاپن | Consumption | Bank | COVID-19 | Stimulus | Marginal propensity to consume | Natural experiment | Japan
مقاله انگلیسی
4 The corporate saving glut and the current account in Germany
GLUT صرفه جویی در شرکت و حساب جاری در آلمان-2021
We investigate, in the case of Germany, the positive correlation between the cyclical components of the corporate saving glut in the non-financial corporate sector and the current account surplus from a capital account perspective. Employing sign restrictions, our findings suggest that mostly labor supply, world demand and financial friction shocks account for the joint dynamics of excess corporate saving and the current account surplus. Household saving shocks, by contrast, cannot explain the correlation. We conclude that, explained through these factors, the corporate saving glut is an important driver of the cyclical component of the current account.
keywords: حساب جاری | صرفه جویی در شرکت | شوک های ماکرو | Current account | Corporate saving | Macro shocks
مقاله انگلیسی
5 COVID-19 impacts on Flemish food supply chains and lessons for agri-food system resilience
تأثیرات COVID-19 بر روی زنجیره های تأمین مواد غذایی فلاندی و درس هایی برای انعطاف پذیری سیستم کشاورزی-غذایی-2021
Context: Resilience represents the ability of systems to anticipate, withstand, or adapt to challenges. Times of great stress and disturbance offer opportunity to identify and confirm key contributors to agri-food system resilience. The COVID-19 pandemic and its related consequences constituted major shock, challenging the resilience of many agri-food systems worldwide.
Objective: This paper aimed to report the immediate effects of the COVID-19 crisis on various key actors from Flemish food supply chains. By analysing and assessing the observed impacts of and reactions to this crisis from a resilience perspective, it also aimed to gain empirical evidence on resilience-enhancing characteristics of agri-food systems to sudden shocks.
Methods: A first, quantitative step of our mixed method approach measured 718 farmers’ experienced impacts and applied strategies following the crisis through an online survey. A second, qualitative step captured impacts and responses from other key actors downstream the food supply chain through 22 in-depth interviews and 18 on-line questionnaires. Data gathering and interpretation followed a conceptual framework for analysing resilience of agri-food systems to external challenges, that we developed based on the literature. The framework states that resilience actions stem from three types of resilience capacities: anticipatory, coping and responsive capacities. These are determined by both resources allocated by system actors, as well as by resilience attributes from the system.
Results and conclusions: The COVID-19 crisis induced a simultaneous dropped demand for food products in the hospitality industry and risen demand in retail. This shifted demand significantly disturbed food production, processing and marketing processes in terms of labour organization, planning, operation, logistics, and economic returns. Perceived impacts varied extensively across actors from the agri-food system, mostly depending on their marketing strategy, customer base, and flexibility and diversity of their practices. Reported reactions to this crisis revealed that resilience capacities varied according to actors’ abilities to negotiate prices, adjust production processes, and maintain or reorient sales. Some agri-food sectors showed higher responsive capacity because of a higher connectivity and self-organization within the system.
Significance: Our findings suggest that flexibility and diversity, despite their tendency to diminish price optimums, increase resilience capacities, which may be more beneficial to systems for thriving in turbulent and uncertain environments. A more tangible, operationalized understanding of resilience is necessary to effectively improve agri-food system resilience. Our conceptual framework proved a valuable tool for operationalizing resilience assessments to major shocks.
Keywords: COVID-19 | Farmers | Resilience | Shocks | Agri-food system | Food supply chain
مقاله انگلیسی
6 Has tourism influenced Indonesia’s current account?
آیا گردشگری بر حساب جاری اندونزی تأثیر گذاشته است؟-2021
In this paper we study the role of tourism in explaining Indonesia’s current account balance. We extend the conventional model of current account determinants by augmenting it with tourism (visitor arrivals) and expected and unexpected tourism shocks, where tourism shocks are akin to income shocks. We show that expected and unexpected positive tourism shocks improve Indonesia’s current account balance, particularly in the most recent period (2010Q1–2017Q4). Equally importantly, our empirical investigation shows that the current account reacts asymmetrically to positive tourism shocks. In other words, expected tourism shocks worsen the current account when it is already in deficit and improve it when it is in surplus. Finally, we show that an unexpected tourism shock improves the account balance, regardless of whether the account is in deficit or surplus.
keywords: حساب جاری | بازدید کنندگان بازدید کننده | شوک | اندونزی | Current account | Visitor arrivals | Shocks | Indonesia
مقاله انگلیسی
7 Soldiers dont go mad: Shell shock and accounting intransigence in the British Army 1914-18
سربازان دیوانه نمی شوند: شوک شلیک و ناسازگاری حسابداری در ارتش بریتانیا 18-1914-2021
This research examines intransigence in accounting systems. Using historical research methods and archival sources, it explores intransigence in the Royal Army Medical Corps’ accounting systems in the context of the incidence of shell shock among British Army soldiers fighting at the battlefront during the First World War. The Army did not recognise shell shock as a medical condition and made few changes to its medical accounting systems for soldiers with shell shock. The four factors of system stability of the AGIL scheme (adaptation, goal attainment, integration, latency) are used to understand the limited medical accounting response to shell shock. This research indicates that in addition to historical and internal political reasons for intransigence, intransigence will occur unless a factor in the AGIL scheme is sufficiently impaired to make the accounting system unstable and force system change. This research finding has contemporary relevance, explaining accounting intransigence in response to issues of social concern.
keywords: انطباق | رسیدن به هدف | نا سازگاری | تاخیر | حسابداری پزشکی | حسابداری نظامی | ادغام سیستم ها | Adaptation | AGIL | Goal attainment | Intransigence | Latency | Medical accounting | Military accounting | Systems integration
مقاله انگلیسی
8 Accounting for price responses in economic evaluation of climate impacts for a fishery
حسابداری برای پاسخ های قیمت در ارزیابی اقتصادی تاثیرات اقلیمی برای ماهیگیری-2021
The present study evaluates the economic impacts of fluctuations in anchovy (Engraulis spp.) catch in Gyeong- Nam (GN) province, South Korea, arising due to warming seawater, accounting for the effects of the re- sponses of the anchovy price. It combines an inter-regional input-output (IRIO) model of two regions (i.e., GN province and all other provinces combined) with a simultaneous equation system (SES) of anchovy supply and demand functions estimated to make projections of the price and quantity of anchovies based on two greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration scenarios (i.e., representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5). Results indicate that estimates of the economic impacts for the two regions will be biased if we consider only the quantity (harvest) change when computing the economic impacts without accounting for the effects of the price re- sponses. None of the previous IO-based economic impact analyses of fisheries account for the price effects induced by a quantity shock. This study fills this critical void by considering such effects.
keywords: تغییرات اقلیمی | ماهیگیری | کره جنوبی | پاسخ قیمت | مدل ورودی-خروجی بین منطقه ای | Climate change | Anchovy fishery | South Korea | Price response | Inter-regional input-output model
مقاله انگلیسی
9 The US current account, sustainability, and the international monetary system
حساب جاری ایالات متحده، پایداری و سیستم پولی بین المللی-2021
In this paper, we examine the sources of the US current account imbalances and discuss the role of the international monetary system in enabling the US in carrying such external deficits. There is evidence that the stochastic properties of the US current account are not compatible with the intertemporal national budget constraint. We argue that this is likely to be related to the dominant role of the U.S. dollar as an international reserve asset, which allows the US to meet international demand for safe assets and allows borrowing at very low interest rates. Results from a structural VAR model indicate that temporary shocks dominate the current account in the short run, whereas domestic permanent supply shocks and preference shocks contribute significantly to US current account movements in the long run. To the extent that temporary shocks stem from aggregate demand, stabilizing aggregate demand is important in achieving long-term sustainability in the current account. Finally, the paper discusses the role of the international financial system and the international role of the U.S. dollar in contributing to US external imbalances.
keywords: تنظیم بین المللی | سیستم پولی بین المللی | ذخیره ارز | تعادل تجارت ایالات متحده | International adjustment | International monetary system | Reserve currency | US trade balance
مقاله انگلیسی
10 A pressure- or velocity-dependent acceleration rate law for the shock-to-detonation transition process in PBX 9502 high explosive
قانون میزان شتاب فشار یا وابسته به سرعت برای روند انتقال شوک به انفجار در مواد منفجره PBX 9502-2020
Shock-to-detonation transition profiles of PBX 9502 explosive are analyzed to develop a rate law for shock acceleration. The shock motion profiles are seen to follow a common trend in the shock acceleration–velocity frame, aside from an early time transient that is dependent on the initiating shock strength. The duration of the early time transient is seen to correlate with the initial shock strength. The com- mon shock acceleration profile is seen to be Arrhenius-like with respect to the local particle velocity or pressure. A dual-rate pressure-dependent Arrhenius-type rate law is developed with the duration of the early rate set by the initial shock strength. The rate law is able to predict the shock motion for all tests well in both particle velocity and pressure space. In addition to directly measuring commonalities in the acceleration profiles of the experimental shock motion, this work provides insight into the functional form of the reaction rate laws for this TATB-based high explosive. The rate law also supports the concept that shock-driven reaction in heterogenous high explosives is driven by localized ignition and growth of hotspots.
Keywords: Detonation | Shock-to-detonation | transition SDT | Detonation reaction rate | High explosive
مقاله انگلیسی
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