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How can big data enhance the timeliness of official statistics? The case of the U:S: consumer price index
داده های بزرگ چگونه می توانند بهنگام بودن آمار رسمی را افزایش دهند؟ مورد شاخص قیمت مصرف کننده ایالات متحده-2018 The daily consumer price index (CPI) produced by the Billion Prices Project (BPP CPI)
offers a glimpse of the direction taken by consumer price inflation in real time. This is in
contrast to the official U.S. CPI, which is compiled monthly and released with an average
of a three-week delay following the end of the reference month. A recent body of research
contended that the movements of online prices are representative of those of offline retail
prices, making the BPP CPI a natural candidate for accurately improving the timeliness of
the official CPI. We assess the predictive content of the BPP CPI using a variety of MIDAS
models that accommodate data sampled at different frequencies. These models generate
estimates that remain robust to the variety of time periods considered and, by the standard
of the existing literature, contribute to a significant upgrade in the forecast accuracy of
official consumer price inflation figures. The paper then sketches the broad implications
of BPP CPI for the consumer price statistics maintained by national statistics offices and
discusses how the proposed improvement in the timeliness of the official CPI fits in this
perspective.
Keywords: Forecasting ، Inflation ، Online prices |
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