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نتیجه جستجو - منطقه یورو

تعداد مقالات یافته شده: 10
ردیف عنوان نوع
1 Assessing the euro area current account
ارزیابی حساب جاری منطقه یورو-2021
This paper assesses the determinants of the evolution of the euro area current account against the benchmark provided by the empirical model in the Coutinho et al. (2018). The paper analyses what part of the current account can be explained by fundamental drivers (current account norms) for the euro area aggregate and for the largest five euro area economies. In addition, it attempts to make a step forward compared with traditional empirical current account specifications in two respects. First, in light of the growing stock imbalances across the euro area embodied by the net international investment position (NIIP), a different specification of current account norms is proposed for their computation, where the part of the NIIP that is explained by fundamental drivers is taken into account. Second, alternative specifications of the empirical model are estimated to better capture the impact of financial centres and corporate net savings, which have been playing an increasingly relevant role in shaping current account outturns in a number of euro area countries in recent decades. Results indicate that while the euro area current account has been in line with fundamentals until the great financial crisis, its post-crisis widening partly reflects private and public deleveraging. Accounting for NIIPs and corporate net savings contributes to moderately reduce the gap between the euro area current account and the norm.
keywords: تعادل حساب جاری | تعادل خارجی | منطقه یورو | چیز | صرفه جویی در خالص شرکت | Current account balance | External equilibrium | Euro area | NIIP | Corporate net savings
مقاله انگلیسی
2 The dynamics among entrepreneurship, innovation, and economic growth in the Eurozone countries
پویایی در میان کارآفرینی ، نوآوری و رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای منطقه یورو-2020
Economic growth in the Eurozone has been lacklustre over the last two decades due to increased global competition from economic players in other regions, economic and financial crisis, and political uncertainties within the zone. To increase the global competitiveness of the region, the European Union launched the Europe 2020 Strategy to raise the level of entrepreneurship and innovation, which are purported to be key drivers of economic growth. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate whether this assertion is true. Thus, the paper investigates the Granger causal relationships among entrepreneurship development, innovation, and economic growth for a sample of the Eurozone countries for the period 2001–2016. Using a vector error-correction model, the study finds that in the long run, both entrepreneurship and innovation stimulate economic growth. In the short run, strong causal links exist but are not always uniform. The results reveal that Eurozone countries should indeed base their growth strategies on policies that promote innovation and policies that create incentives for entrepreneurship.© 2020 The Society for Policy Modeling. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.JEL classification: O43; O16; E44; E31
Keywords: Entrepreneurship | Innovation | Economic growth | Eurozone countries
مقاله انگلیسی
3 Anticipating bank distress in the Eurozone: An Extreme Gradient Boosting approach
پیش بینی بحران مالی بانک ها در منطقه یورو: یک رویکرد تقویت گرادیان شدید-2019
The banking sector plays a special role in the economy and has critical functions which are essential for economic stability. Hence, systemic banking crises disrupt financial markets and hinder global economic growth. In this study, Extreme Gradient Boosting, a state of the art machine learning method, is applied to identify a set of key leading indicators that may help predict and prevent bank failure in the Eurozone banking sector. The crosssectional data used in this study consists of 25 annual financial ratio series for commercial banks in the Eurozone. The sample includes Eurozone listed failed and non-failed banks for the period 2006–2016. A number of early warning systems and leading indicator models have been developed to prevent bank failure. Yet the breadth and depth of the recent financial crisis indicates that these methods must improve if they are to serve as a useful tool for regulators and managers of financial institutions. Our goal is to build a classification model to determine which variables should be monitored to anticipate bank financial distress. A set of key variables are identified to anticipate bank defaults. Identifying leading indicators of bank failure is necessary so that regulators and financial institutions management can take preventive and corrective measures before it is too late.
Keywords: Bank failure prediction | Bank failure prevention | Bank financial distress | Machine learning | Extreme Gradient Boosting |XGBoost
مقاله انگلیسی
4 A new macro stress testing approach for financial realignment in the Eurozone
یک روش جدید تست استرس کلان برای تجدید مالی در منطقه یورو-2019
Contrary to the common approach of stress-testing under which banks are evaluated whether they are distressed, this empirical study chooses to move from the micro stress test approach to a wider new macro stress test category. By being able to stress testing the entire economy of the Eurozone, it will permit big banks to fail and, at the same time, will open room for new banking players to enter the sector, promoting the essence of a healthy destruction. The analysis performs a battery of stress tests, by implementing VaR, Cornish-Fisher VaR, Monte Carlo VaR, Expected Shortfall, Cornish-Fisher Expected Shortfall, and Monte Carlo Expected Shortfall. At the same time, it explicitly considers the new regulatory approach of IFRS9 to incorporate extreme values from forecasted series in the distributions. The analysis also performs two versions of stress tests, one including TARGET2 and one without it. The results document that future stress tests should include TARGET2 values in order to capture a better picture of the stressed economy. The findings from these stress tests clearly illustrate that although there has been a trough after the distress call of 2008, this trough ended. These are results derived without including the TARGET2 transfers. By including the TARGET2 transfers we receive a different picture that possibly acts as a protective mechanism against any future crisis. Ca Keywords: Macroprudential policy | Financial stability | Macro stress test | Systemic risk | European Banking Union
مقاله انگلیسی
5 The sovereign-bank nexus in peripheral euro area: Further evidence from contingent claims analysis
پیوند مستقل بانک در منطقه یورو محیطی: شواهد بیشتر از تجزیه و تحلیل مطالبات موکول به آینده-2019
New evidence is presented on the nexus between the sovereign and banking sector risk. Applying the contingent claims methodology to the peripheral euro area countries over the 2004Q4- 2013Q2 period, we build indicators of sovereign and bank risk and assess their interconnection in comparison with existing market-based indicators of bank and sovereign distress. We use three different statistical measures of interdependence based on principal components analysis, Granger causality framework and Diebold-Yilmaz’s connectedness index. The empirical results show strong interconnection and co-movement between country-level banking and sovereign risk indicators. We also find evidence of bi-directional bank-sovereign causal linkages only for Spain during the European sovereign debt crisis period. For the late crisis period, we detect weak interrelationship and more divergence across the various risk indicators. Our findings indicate that secondary and derivatives market indices are more driven by common underlying factors than are contingent claim based risk measures. Finally, our results also suggest that market participants risk appetite was the main channel of risk transmission between sovereigns and banks for the countries under study during the sample period.
Keywords: Sovereign risk | Bank risk | Sovereign-bank nexus | Contingent claims
مقاله انگلیسی
6 Euro area structural reforms in times of a global crisis
اصلاحات ساختاری منطقه یورو در زمان بحران جهانی-2018
The global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis brought back to the policy debate the issue of the lower bound (LB) on interest rates and the policy options when this is a binding constraint. The paper looks at structural reforms as a way to provide economic stimulus for an economy at the LB. We focus on the euro area and carry out a comprehen sive analysis within a multi-country structural model of the euro area within the world. Main results show structural reforms have positive short-run effects that reduce the size of a recession and in some cases can drive the euro area out of the LB. The labor reform ac centuates deflation which implies that interest rates remain at the LB for the same number of periods, while the services reform pushes the euro area out of the LB if implemented in the largest part of the union. The latter result hinges on the assumption of a gradual im plementation of reforms. Reforms have significantly different effects across different types of households and thus the share of these households is important in the transmission. Unilateral reforms in a large bloc have positive spillover effects within the euro area. Uni lateral reforms in a small bloc are deflationary but the small size of the bloc leads to very limited impact of national developments on monetary policy.
Keywords: Lower bound ، Structural reforms ، Monetary policy ، Dynamic general equilibrium models
مقاله انگلیسی
7 European policy and markets: Did policy initiatives stem the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area?
سیاست و بازار اروپا: آیا طرح های سیاستی بحران بدهی های حاکم در منطقه یورو را متوقف می کند؟-2018
We investigate how European policy initiatives influenced market assessments of sovereign default risk and banking sector fragility during the sovereign debt crisis in four adversely affected countries — Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy. We focus on three broad groups of policies: (a) ECB policy actions (monetary and financial support), (b) EU programs (financial and fiscal rules as well as financial support in crisis countries), and (c) domestic austerity programs. We measure immediate market impact effects: what policies changed risk perceptions, using CDS spreads on sovereign bonds and banks in this assessment. We employ dynamic panel and event study methodologies in the empirical work. We find that a number of programs initially stabilized sovereign and bank bond markets (e.g. Outright Monetary Transactions program), although announcement and implementation impacts on markets differed in some cases (e.g. second Covered Market Bond Program). Actions designed to shore up sovereign markets often lowered risk assessments in bank bond markets and policies designed to ensure safety and soundness of the European banking system in some cases significantly impacted sovereign debt markets. Finally, a number of policies designed to stabilize markets had surprisingly little immediate impact on either sovereign or bank bond market risk assessments.
Keywords: EU policy initiatives ; Transmission of policy news; Euro crisis; JEL codes: E42, E44, F36, F42, G14, H63
مقاله انگلیسی
8 Robust VaR and CVaR optimization under joint ambiguity in distributions, means, and covariances
بهینه سازی VaR و CVaR، تحت ابهام مشترک در توزیع ها، معنی ها و کوواریانس ها-2018
We develop robust models for optimization of the VaR (value at risk) and CVaR (conditional value at risk) risk measures with a minimum expected return constraint under joint ambiguity in distribution, mean returns, and covariance matrix. We formulate models for ellipsoidal, polytopic, and interval ambiguity sets of the means and covariances. The models unify and/or extend several existing models. We also show how to overcome the well-known conservativeness of robust optimization models by proposing an algorithm and a heuristic for constructing joint ellipsoidal ambiguity sets from point estimates given by multiple securities analysts. Using a controlled experiment we show how the well-known sensitivity of CVaR to mis-specifications of the first four moments of the distribution is alleviated with the robust models. Finally, applying the model to the active management of portfolios of sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) from Eurozone core and periphery, and Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe countries, we illustrate that investment strategies using robust optimization models perform well out-of-sample, even during the eurozone crisis. We consider both buy-and-hold and active management strategies.
Keywords: Risk management ، Data ambiguity ، Coherent risk measures ، Portfolio optimization ، Eurozone crisis
مقاله انگلیسی
9 روز پایان منطقه یورو: دلایل، تفاوتها و عواقب فروپاشی
سال انتشار: 2013 - تعداد صفحات فایل pdf انگلیسی: 15 - تعداد صفحات فایل doc فارسی: 24
در این مقاله به توصیف پیدایش و خلق یک سناریوی فاجعه آمیز پرداخته و دلایل و انگیزه های احتمالی برای فروپاشی منطقه یورو را بررسی خواهیم کرد. برای این منظور تمایزی بین خارج شدن کشورهای ضعیف و قدرتمند [از منطقه یورو] قائل شده و به بررسی تاثیر معرفی مجدد پول ملی روی بدهی داخلی ، بخش بانکداری داخلی، عضویت در EU و آزادی تجارت پرداخته ایم. همچنین بصورت خلاصه هزینه های اجتماعی و سیاسی ناشی از اختلالات اجتماعی آن را مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار داده ایم.
لغات کلیدی: بحران بانکی | بحران بدهی | نرخهای تبدیل ارز | یورو | منطقه مطلوب ارز | جدایی
مقاله ترجمه شده
10 معاهدات بین المللی جدید در چارچوب اتحادیه اروپا: یک راه حل موقت برای چالش های سیاسی در جریان و یا یک خطر برای آینده سازمانی اتحادیه؟
سال انتشار: 2012 - تعداد صفحات فایل pdf انگلیسی: 6 - تعداد صفحات فایل doc فارسی: 8
پیمان لیسبون در مرحله فرایند یک نتیجه نهایی نیست ، بلکه در مرحله ی فرایند یک نتیجه متوسط است. اتحادیه اروپا به عنوان یک ساختمان که در حال حاضر در دست ساخت است میتواند دیده شود؛ اما در حال حاضر به دلایل مختلف این پروژه مواجه با بحران بزرگی به ویژه در زمینه اقتصادی است. دو معاهده به تازگی امضا شده است با این امید که آنها ابزار مورد نیاز برای غلبه بر این مانع باشند. اگر چه غیر عادی به نظر میرسد اما آنها ممکن است، تحت شرایط خاصی ما را به راه درست برگردانند. واژه های کلیدی : پیمان لیسبون | مکانیسم ثبات اروپا | پیمان مالی | روش جامعه | پیمان Prum | یورو | منطقه یورو | تقویت همکاری | دیوان عدالت | کمیسیون امور قانون اساسی
مقاله ترجمه شده
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