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Modelling the interdependence of tourism demand: The global vector autoregressive approach
مدل سازی وابستگی متقابل تقاضای گردشگری: رویکرد بردار خودکار برگرفته شده جهانی-2017 This study develops a global vector autoregressive (global VAR or GVAR) model to quantify
the cross-country co-movements of tourism demand and simulate the impulse responses
of shocks to the Chinese economy. The GVAR model overcomes the endogeneity and
over-parameterisation issues found in many tourism demand models. The results show
the size of co-movements in tourism demand across 24 major countries in different
regions. In the event of negative shocks to China’s real income and China’s tourism price
variable, almost all of these countries would face fluctuations in their international tourism
demand and in their tourism prices in the short run. In the long run, developing countries
and China’s neighbouring countries would tend to be more negatively affected than devel
oped countries.
Keywords: Tourism demand | Co-movement | Economic interdependence | Global VAR | Impulse response |
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